If you listened to the latest episode of Crossed Up, as Bob and I broke down the matchup of the Phillies and the Braves, the one thing we agreed could not happen was that the Phillies give the Braves chances to win games.

And by that, we surmised they couldn’t have any of the following four criteria cost them a game:

  1. offensive no-show
  2. poor bullpen performances
  3. defensive miscues
  4. bad baserunning

Well, two of the four reared their ugly heads in Game 2, and rather than the Phillies coming home with a 2-0 lead and a chance to move on to the NLCS in front of a sold-out Citizens Bank Park with just one win, they let the Braves back into the series, and now, the pressure is on to win two of three to take down the defending World Champs and keep the improbable post season run going.

Everyone is killing Rhys Hoskins today – and deservedly so. He made an absolutely brutal non-error (what is it with baseball scorekeepers these days?) that opened the flood gates for a 3-run, 2-out rally by Atlanta.


Normally I would post the video here, but Kyle already did an entire post skewering the guy, and besides, I’ve watched it 300 times already and enough is enough.

Then Tim wrote a column about Hoskins, and, well, I love Tim. He’s a fellow St. Joe’s Prep alum, so it’s like instant brotherhood there, but I think it’s shortsighted.

Even Bob got a little too emotional in the moment with this tweet:

Look, I’m not here to defend Hoskins. Seriously. I can still make that play as an overweight 48 year old on Sunday mornings in Marcus Hook. There was nothing fundamental about his approach to the play. His footwork was terrible. And even then he didn’t try to knock the ball down. You should only go to your backhand as a last resort. I can’t fathom to understand what Hoskins was thinking on the play.

But this is kind of akin to Boston fans wanting to tar and feather Bill Buckner. Or Chicago fans wanting to burn down the home of Steve Bartman. Yes, Buckner should have fielded that ground ball. Yes, Bartman should have had the sense to let Moises Alou catch that fly ball down the line in Wrigley. And in both cases, it could have meant sweet victory for long-starving teams instead of cruel defeat.

The key words being “could have.”

Because there was no guarantee the Phillies were going to score any run at all in Game 2. And that was a bigger issue. I could even try to argue that Zack Wheeler, who pitched brilliantly and truly only allowed two real singles, can’t hit Ronald Acuna and then walk Dansby Swanson before getting to Matt Olson, who hit the grounder to Hoskins.

And, considering the success he was having with his fastball up against Olson, why he resorted to a slider out over the plate on that pitch was also befuddling.

But doing that would absolve part of the sin of Hoskins not making a routine play. He has to make it. The Phillies could still lose that game even if he does, but booting that ball all but assured it was going to happen.

The bigger issue though is the inconsistency of the Phillies offense right now. Look, things are exciting and all, and they are still just two wins away from the NLCS, which is pretty remarkable, and yes the Phillies just came off a 14-game road trip to end the regular season and start the playoffs, which is the first time any team has done that since the St. Louis Cardinals – in 1944!

But, the reality is, while we’re all getting caught up in Red October, which frankly is awesome, and fun, and the best thing in this city sports wise on a daily basis when it happens, the Phillies are just 7-7 in those 14 games. It’s amazing how .500 baseball in October (well, end of September too) is exciting, but from April to August it’s considered subpar. Go figure.

And in those 14 games, where has the Phillies offense been?

They scored three runs in three games in Chicago. Yes, they scored 25 runs in four games in Washington, but, come on, we could draw twitter names out of a hat that could come close to putting up 25 runs in four games against the Nats.

Then it was five in three games in Houston, although two didn’t count, so we can skip those.

They posted eight runs in two games against St. Louis, but six came in the ninth inning of Game 1 and were courtesy of some meltdowns on St. Louis’ end too. And now, seven runs in two games against Atlanta.

So really, except for the Washington series, the offense looked good in… one game. Game 1 vs. the Braves. That’s it. This is the lineup’s Waterloo.

The one thing I love about Rob Thomson as a manager is he operates a lot on gut and feel and confidence, and trust. Sure, he has his analytic charts and he consults them constantly in-game. But he uses them more as supporting information (as they should be) than as dictating information (as they shouldn’t).

And so far, we’ve seen managers – as they are wont to do every year in the MLB playoffs – make asinine decisions, usually with the bullpen, and have it nearly cost them games or even definitely cost them outright.. Oliver Marmol. Scott Servais. John Schneider. Buck Showalter.

Meanwhile, Thomson has been cool as a cucumber. He’s brought back old school baseball ideologies and has seen them work. Bunting. Stealing. Moving baserunners with productive outs. It’s been so damn refreshing to watch.

But, also like an old-school manager, he’s loyal to his guys. He’s loyal to what got him there. And that’s where we differ.

I’ve not been a Kyle Schwarber as a leadoff hitter guy all season. If you go back to early episodes of Crossed Up, you’ll hear me bitch about it. Then in June, I felt like I needed to shut up because, he was on fire. But since the All-Star Break, he’s been wildly inconsistent, with fits and starts, and while the home runs kept coming, the other hits, and walks did not.

And so far in the playoffs, he’s 0-for-16. Hoskins hasn’t been much better, at 1-for-18. These are your leadoff and No. 2 hitters. Is there even a question as to why the offense is sputtering?

Going back to the start of the 14-game trip, Hoskins is 7-for-53 (.132) with four BB and 19 K.

Schwarber was hot at the end of the regular season, going 9-for-29 with four homers and seven RBI in the last 10 games (.310/.471/.830 and an OPS of 1.301)

But 0-for-the playoffs with eight strikeouts is terrible.

Thomson wants to stick with them because the numbers on the back of their baseball card tell him to do so – and in most cases, you should trust those numbers and not any small sample size of a current slump or funk.

What Thomson sees is Schwarber, in 35 career postseason games before this season slashed .255/.359/.518 for an .878 OPS with 9 HR and 17RBI (and 18 BB).

Meanwhile, for Hoskins, since this is his first postseason, Thomson is relying on regular season numbers. Where Hoskins is one of only 12 MLB first basemen with at least 2500 plate appearances and he ranks seventh among first basemen in OPS (.846), tied for sixth in OPS+ (125), fifth in OBP (.353), fifth in slugging (.492), sixth in homers (148), and sixth in doubles (149). He’s only behind guys like Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto and Jose Abreu and pretty on par with Matt Olson and Anthony Rizzo.

So, to call him abysmal, or say he stinks, or, as some CB cognoscenti like to say, he has “loser energy,” is going too far.

But, he does need to start performing soon. Four games isn’t a lot, but in the playoffs, everything is magnified, fairly or unfairly. So some production is needed. Same with Schwarber.

And the best way for Thomson to do this is to still show his guys he believes in them and trusts them, but to juggle the lineup a bit and see if it wakes them up.

I’ll continue to advocate for Bryce Harper to be the leadoff hitter on this squad that lacks a true top of the order guy, but I know that’s not a preference of his. Fine.

Then lead off Realmuto. He was your MVP this season, and frankly, is the best base runner and base stealer of your top six hitters. bat Harper second. Move Alec Bohm up to third, a spot he hit .295 out of this season,  and bat Nick Castellanos fourth, this keeps two righties between Harper and Schwarber, who now hits fifth before going to Hoskins sixth. and then keep the bottom of the order platoon working as Thomson has been.

Both Schwarber and Hoskins are still in run producing positions, but now there’s less pressure off the top of the game on them, and guys who have done a better job of getting on base are in front of them and can create offense even if those guys stay cold.

It’s the most important decision for Thomson as he approaches Game 3 tomorrow, and whatever decision he makes could end up determining the outcome of a close series.

I would gamble on something different just to try and spark an offense that has had one really good game in the last three weeks. And to give the Braves a completely different look too.

You can always go back to Schwarber and Hoskins at the top later if they get hot, but for now, the best chance for the Phillies might be a Monty Python move… and now for something completely different.

Because as bad a play as Hoskins made in the field Wednesday night, the offense has scored three runs or fewer in 10 of the last 14 gamers against teams not named the Nationals. That’s where the focus needs to be if the Phillies are to advance to the NLCS.