If you don’t hit, you won’t win. Everybody knows this.

In Game 4 of the World Series, the Phillies didn’t hit. They didn’t hit at all, in fact, as they joined the 1956 Brooklyn Dodgers as the only other team to be no-hit in a World Series game.

But if you know how this city works, then you know that even on a night when the Phillies’ offense turned in the biggest of duds, plenty of hot air and key strokes will be dedicated to Aaron Nola’s performance up until the first pitch of Game 5 is thrown on Thursday night.

Mine included, I guess.

It’s only natural to want to talk about Nola after a third straight postseason start that failed to last five full innings. No matter how you slice up and distribute the blame of what went down last night, and there is plenty of it to go around, Game 4 won’t be remembered around here for the Astros’ championship-caliber resolve, it will be remembered as a missed opportunity for the Phillies. The dream of a Thursday night championship celebration is gone, angst is in, and the disappointment stings.

For Phillies fans, Game 4 wasn’t just miserable, it was historically miserable.

With a chance to seize control of this back-and-forth series, the Phillies turned to Nola in what always figured to be a low-scoring pitchers’ duel. His counterpart, Houston’s Cristian Javier, more than lived up to the billing. Nola did not. He battled early but faded fast.

Enter the Nola takes, because this is what we do. This is what we always do:

Some will come to his defense, pointing out the obvious — the Phillies wouldn’t be within two wins of a championship without him. Some will use his NLCS and World Series struggles to validate their long-held belief that he can’t get it done when it matters most.

To borrow a line from my colleague Kevin Kinkead, two things can be true:

  1. You can’t write off or overlook three brilliant October starts that, in order, put the Phillies into the postseason, closed out the Cardinals, and swung the NLDS against the Braves. In those three starts, Nola worked a total of 19 1/3 innings without yielding an earned run. By every measure, these starts qualify as big-time efforts in big-time spots.
  2. You can’t write off or overlook three lackluster starts across that NLCS and World Series that saw him last just 13 total innings while allowing 14 earned runs (9.69 ERA).

Still, his effort in Game 4 was particularly disappointing on multiple fronts. Although the Phillies failed to record or a hit, an inept offense doesn’t absolve Nola from what transpired. Javier threw four of his six shutout innings without any margin for error, giving his team a chance to finally break through. Had Nola not run out of gas around 60 pitches in the fifth, there’s no way of knowing how things would’ve played out. Meanwhile, his inability to last deeper into the game came at an inopportune time with a bullpen game looming tonight:

If last night marks the final time we see Nola this postseason, he will finish with a 4.91 ERA over five starts. Fair or not, I suspect many will slant their opinion of Nola towards those last three outings.

Call it recency bias fueled by disappointment.

With their air of invincibility at Citizens Bank Park and home-field advantage now gone, the Phillies will now turn to the little-used Noah Syndergaard and a parade of relievers in an effort to avoid traveling back to Houston this weekend on the brink of elimination.

If there’s a silver lining for Nola and the Phillies, it may be that the story of his postseason isn’t finished just. With this series feeling destined for seven games, he may be called upon in some capacity one more time. Plenty of redemption stories have been written along the way over the last month,  and with this series feeling destined to go the distance, there may still be time for one more.

Quick Observations

  • The Phillies’ bullpen entered Game 4 unblemished. That was never going to continue, but, it was a tough time for things to go south. Not only did Jose Alvarado allow all three of Nola’s runners to score, the Astros got to the reliever for a pair.
  • The assignment against Javier never figured to be an easy one. Before last night, he allowed just 12 hits and two earned runs over 35 innings pitched, including just two hits and one earned run in 6 2/3 innings this postseason. Tack another six flawless innings onto those totals. Despite last pitching on Oct. 22, Javier carried that momentum into Game 4. He annihilated the Phillies lineup for six innings. Not only did the Phillies fail to record a hit against him, they put just three balls in play with expected batting averages better than .200 all night, and it took them until the sixth inning to do it. In other words, they weren’t victims of poor luck, they simply produced tons of poor contact — or no contact at all.
  • Credit this Astros pitching staff. The talent and depth is real. It’s why many experts picked Houston to win the series. But 14 strikeouts? Come on. Ridiculous.
  • Nola would probably be all right without seeing Kyle Tucker again. Tucker, who homered twice off Nola in Game 1, roped a hanging 0-2 curve into right field to start the second inning. He would later line out to right field. Maybe we see Nola again later in this series. Maybe we don’t. Either way, I can tell you right now that we’re not going to see another Nola/Tucker matchup. I can promise you that.
  • Nice play by Brandon Marsh on Jose Altuve’s first inning flyout. It carried a .300 expected batting average, but Marsh was able to get a good jump and cover ground. That play probably doesn’t get made earlier this season. It would have been a 50/50 play, at best.