EDIT – well this was a waste of time

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The MVP award will be won or lost in Denver on Monday night. It’s Joel Embiid vs. Nikola Jokic, part two, with Embiid entering the game as a -150 favorite.

Jokic is second at +180 and Giannis is third at +450, so there’s certainly a chance this flips with eight games left, but not if Joel handles business down the stretch, and business is defeating his closest competitor head-to-head for the second time this season.

For all the talk of defensive numbers, advanced analytics, offensive facilitation, NBA standings, and games played, nothing trumps a good story and a great highlight, and nobody loves those things more than the media, even the 57 members of The Ringer with an MVP vote. The last time Jokic and Embiid played, Joel went for 47 points and 18 rebounds with 5 assists and 3 steals, hitting a dagger in Joker’s face to ice the game:

That’s the highlight right there, and if Embiid does win MVP, it’ll be played over and over again, from now until the end of time. Clips like this are more powerful than any singular statistic or narrative that anyone can create.

Because the media is impressionable. They love moments, and when you see big plays on big stages and big performances against the best teams, those things stick.

The inherent problem with awarding MVP in any sport is that the definition of “value” is subjective. Does jabroni voter X define “value” the same way as jabroni voter Y? Probably not, which is why you have to force their hand. Give them something they can’t deny, which is two head-to-head wins. You can come up with the most respectable, nuanced, statistically-driven MVP argument of all time, but if Embiid hits another dagger in Jokic’s face, on his own floor, then all of that other shit goes right to the basketball back burner. Even the stuffiest Big Js can’t use numbers to weasel their way out of Embiid beating Jokic straight-up in Denver, in late March, with both teams separated by one game.

It might not be the best example, but think about the Allen Iverson stepover. Everyone here LOVES the stepover. An iconic moment from an iconic player. People talk about the stepover, but they never talk about the Lakers winning the next four games, taking that NBA Finals series in a gentleman’s sweep. The fact that the stepover persists shows the staying power of a killer NBA highlight. 20 years from now we’re not going to be showing Super Bowl 57 highlights, but we’ll still be showing the stepover. We might not be showing Phillies/Astros World Series highlights, but our kids will know the stepover, because the best basketball highlights just have a way of finding a place in your frontal lobe and staying there forever.

Likewise, even if Joel and the Sixers exit in the 2nd round again, the Jokic/Embiid head-to-head highlights will do tens of millions of views on social and YouTube, ten years from now. And on Tuesday morning, they’ll lead Sports Center and First Take. Colin Cowturd and Nick Wright will lead with Sixers/Nuggets. Shannon Sharpe and Skip Bayless and Nick Wright and Craig Carton and every talking head on the planet will lead with this game. This is the single biggest moment in the MVP race, and Embiid doing it against Jokic for a second time this season should be enough to dispatch even the most stalwart of Joker holdouts in the media. A big game tonight, then status quo down the stretch, even against Boston and Milwaukee, should be enough to get the job done.

Everyone is watching.