You are forgiven if the Phillies beating up on the Nationals and Tigers didn’t get you all pumped up. But after the Phillies tacked on a series victory over the same Dodgers team that pummeled them at the start of last month, now, maybe, there is something to get excited about.

In the span of nine days, the Phillies moved from a wretched 25-32 record to within a single a game of the .500 mark.

Was their season over then? No. Is it saved now? No, but suddenly it’s far less difficult to imagine the Phillies replicating their less-than-ideal path to the postseason of a year ago.

Those who are probability driven or buy into postseason projections will be happy to know the Phillies have increased their playoffs odds from 21.4 to 37.4 percent, per FanGraphs. Those who put no stock in that stuff probably just feel more optimistic because it looks like Taijuan Walker, Trea Turner, and Ranger Suarez have finally figured things out. At least that was the case this weekend, one in which all three players made significant contributions to a team trending upward.

With the Phillies now set to take on the red-hot Arizona Diamondbacks for four games, let’s jump into some observations and other thoughts on where things stand before they visit their personal house of horrors in Chase Field this week.

Yes, you should feel good about Trea Turner

The Trea Turner you saw this weekend? That’s the one we all expected to see from the jump. Turner wrapped up the Phillies’ 5-1 homestand by going 10-for-24 (.417 BA) with a 1.148 OPS. On Sunday, he was the lead runner on a third-inning double steal that helped the Phillies add an extra run on Bryson Stott’s two-run single.

Difference-making offensive production paired with the ability to apply pressure on the base paths — this is what it was supposed to be all along.

Of course, we’ve been here with Turner before. Remember his walk-off homer against the Diamondbacks last month? That what was supposed to be the swing that finally “got him going.” He then proceeded to hit .143 on the Phillies’ 10-game road trip through Atlanta, New York, and Washington. So, if you’re feeling a little bit hesitant to go all-in on his latest supposed revival, it’s understandable, but there is true reason to believe.

You don’t have to hope on one game or one swing changing his season, nor do you have fall back on the “back of the baseball card” argument. Some deeper metrics suggest that the real Trea Turner may be finally standing up.

Included in the game notes issued by the Phillies prior to yesterday’s series finale were these interesting numbers:

  • Turner’s average exit velocity has jumped from 86.5 mph in April to 91.3 mph in May and 96.0 MPH in June.
  • Likewise, his hard-hit percentage has also shot up by month. His 30.8% hard-hit percentage climbed to 43% in May before exploding to 63% in June.

Both his June average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage sat among the top 10 of all qualified hitters, and this was before a three-hit day which featured plenty of hard contact.

And yeah, I’ll acknowledge the people reading this who roll their eyes whenever the Statcast stuff gets brought up. Exit velocity and hard-hit percentage aren’t metrics for “the dorks ruining baseball.” Hitting the ball hard, and doing some more often, is good! Very good! Why? It’s simple. Consistently hard contact is more likely to yield sustainable results.

Taijuan Walker is finding his footing

It hasn’t exactly been a smooth start for Taijuan Walker in Philadelphia, but he may have finally found his footing.

Until this weekend, he had struggled to sustain momentum by stringing together a run of quality starts, but that is exactly what he is doing right now:

It’s interesting, everybody was focused on Rob Thomson’s decision to remove Walker after five scoreless innings. He wanted to stay in the game, he was throwing the ball well, and the Phillies face a bullpen game in Arizona Monday night.

All true, but I wanted to see Walker in the sixth inning for a different reason. By the time he finished off Los Angeles in the fifth, he had lowered his ERA to 4.67. Had he thrown one more clean inning, it would have fallen to 4.61 — putting him directly in line with Aaron Nola’s 4.60 ERA.

In other words, had he recorded four more outs, he would have actually passed Nola in ERA, something that would have been unthinkable when he held a 6.53 ERA following his start that didn’t even last an inning against the Giants back on May 17th.

I guess you can look at that as a criticism of Nola’s season, but I view it more as a credit to Walker’s professionalism in turning his underwhelming season around in a new environment while carrying some heavy expectations.

As for Thomson’s call to pull Walker, I didn’t hate it as much as everybody else, I guess.

The Phillies held a 3-0 lead, but Freddie Freeman made hard contact in his previous at-bat (102 mph exit velocity), Will Smith had reached base twice, and Max Muncy almost put the Dodgers ahead in his previous at-bat:

I think the move had less to do with “baseball in 2023” or a lack of confidence in Walker and more to do with the Phillies’ urgency to win this particular game. They wanted this one, and with the Dodgers’ ability to make things weird in a hurry (see both Friday night and the eighth inning against Jose Alvarado Sunday), Thomson wanted the Dodgers’ heart of the order to get a different look against Gregory Soto. Did it work? Not against Freeman it didn’t, but the Phillies also won the game, and I try not to critique moves with the benefit of hindsight.

A word on J.T. Realmuto’s struggles

It was an ugly homestand for Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto.

He sat Sunday after going 1-for-17 (.059 BA) in five games against the Tigers and Dodgers. Dating back to the start of the Phillies’ last road trip that began in Atlanta, Realmuto is hitting .137 with a .214 on-base percentage over 15 games. There’s just no other way to say it, the results have been poor and the at-bats have been poor. There’s no bad luck or anything at play here, he’s just put together a run of brutal plate appearances.

After posting an .820 OPS last season, it stands at .709 through 58 games this season, but it is his 2022 that provides some reason for optimism moving forward.

On June 25th last season, the day Bryce Harper fractured his left thumb against the Padres, Realmuto entered play batting .236 with a .665 OPS and just four homers over 64 games. He went on to hit .310 with a .953 OPS and 18 homers over his final 75 games en route to becoming arguably the team MVP.

To be clear, that doesn’t mean the 32-year-old catcher will simply replicate the same trajectory again this season, but the close precedent for a player who has been one of the game’s best overall catchers in recent years doesn’t make a similar rebound an outlandish thought.

I also don’t think a proactive intervention to get Realmuto off his feet more would hurt the cause.

He currently leads all catchers with 55 games started (next closest is 51 games) and innings caught. Realmuto has logged 475 innings behind the plate the season, which is 28 more innings than any other catcher.

Given his recent offensive struggles, is it a bad idea to explore ways of easing the demand on aging catcher who also logged an additional 17 games last postseason? There’s no reason the Phillies can’t work Garrett Stubbs in for an extra game or two here and there against right-handed pitching, or piggyback an off day with a second day down for Realmuto to provide an extended breather and much-needed reset.

The Phillies have taken a cautious approach with pitchers for the sake of longevity, perhaps the same approach is needed here.

No exaggeration here

The Phillies’ struggles in Arizona aren’t overplayed. They’ve been absolutely dismal in recent seasons at Chase Field.

In fact, they haven’t won a road series against the Diamondbacks since 2016 and have compiled a 4-12 record against them since the 2017 season. The post-pandemic Phillies are just 1-5 across their two most recent road trips to Chase Field, so these numbers aren’t skewed by the Pete Mackanin or early Gabe Kapler squads.

Then again, the 2023 Phillies have had trouble winning pretty much anywhere away from Citizens Bank Park. At 13-22, only the Rockies have a worse road record among National League teams.

Podcast!

Be sure to check out Crossed Up: A Phillies Podcast. Anthony SanFilippo and I talk all things Phillies, twice a week (Monday and Friday). The latest episode just came out this morning. Follow wherever you get your shows.