Is it okay to believe in the Phillies again?

Yes. Your confidence never should have waned. Yes, the start to the season was underwhelming. Yes, you may have wanted to push the panic button when they were 25-32 on June 2nd (there were some who were pushing it well before that even). And yes, if we’re being honest, puffing out your chest over being 35-34 through 69 games is not wise either. The Phillies are still 3-4 games off the expected pace coming into the season.

That said, you should have quiet confidence that you don’t have to muddle through your summer with only Eagles training camp to look forward to. No, the Phillies are going to have a meaningful summer, yet again. And if you paid attention last year, that set up for quite a fall.

Going 10-2 in their last 12 games ought to be reason enough for the optimism, especially with Thursday’s 5-4 win over Arizona meaning that they went 5-2 against the L.A. Dodgers and the Diamondbacks, two of the three best teams in the N.L. record-wise.

When you look at it, the two losses in those 12 games identify what all the remaining naysayers and critics and negative Nancys want to continue to harp on as what will be the Phillies ultimate downfall – Aaron Nola and the lack of a No. 5 starter.


While both need to be addressed, examined, and figured out – and like I have believed all along about this team’s slow start, I believe both will – I don’t think either is as alarming as the alarmists want you to believe when they constantly sound that alarm.

Every time you go on social media, this is all the know-it-alls complain about. When you turn on talk radio, it’s what the hosts are blathering about. But at what point is it too much empty carping based on high-level arguments?

Let’s start with Nola, since he is such a lightning rod:

https://twitter.com/Zuberthegoat/status/1669482965414412292

Please.

Has he been good this season? No. A 4.66 ERA at this point is way too high. Allowing a home run in 11 straight games is also not good. He’s been wildly inconsistent, and each start is frustrating.

Why?

Because he looks great for most of the start but then has one short stint where things go sideways and it impacts his game.

His start Thursday was a microcosm of the season. He pitched two good innings to start the game. He had a defensive miscue from Kyle Schwarber that cost him, leading to the first run, but couldn’t stop the bleeding from there. Two singles followed, both were a little unlucky, and one of them was super weak contact, but then he throws an ugly curve ball to Ketel Marte that gets crushed into the pool:

Just like that, he blew a three-run lead and gave up four runs.

From there, he was vintage Nola, retiring 13 of the next 16 batters. He didn’t give up another run and finished the game with nine strikeouts:

So, what gives?

“I haven’t really been great with guys on base this year,” Nola told Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.

Ruben Amaro Jr. was talking about it on the broadcast too. Nola has been a different pitcher this season when pitching out of the windup vs. pitching out of the stretch.

More stats from Zolecki here (all prior to Thursday):

  • With nobody on base, batters are slashing .192/240/.356 with a .597 OPS – which is 40 points BETTER than his career average.
  • However, with runners on base, batters are slashing .299/.350/.533 with an .883 OPS, which is 183 points WORSE than his career average.
  • When there are runners in scoring position, batters are slashing .313/.347/.582 with a .929 OPS, which is a whopping 204 points WORSE than his career average.

Amaro thinks it’s something mechanical in his delivery from the stretch. Tom McCarthy asked Amaro if he thought Nola might be tipping pitches out of the stretch. Amaro said he’d have to do a deep dive in video to see, but said that Nola’s stuff is still good enough that even if batters knew what was coming, he’d still get outs, but that a pitch like the one to Marte was just poor execution.

If you want to criticize Nola about these specifics, it’s fair to do so. But to criticize his overall game, or to flatly call him a bad pitcher is asinine:

He still is among the NL leaders in pitching WAR, batting average against, and expected ERA. These are all signs that, most of the time, Nola is still being Nola. But what’s hurting him is that 20 percent of the time when he’s not been himself.

If Amaro is right, and it’s something mechanical, it can be fixed. But there needs to be a little grace for pitchers in the sport these days because pitching with the new rules is even harder than pitching was before.

Nola isn’t the only pitcher who is struggling with the increased pace of baseball.

Look at the top 10 starters in Cy Young voting in each league from last season. Of the 20, only five are putting up the same or better numbers than a year ago. The other 15 are either worse or are injured. And injuries are the biggest issue facing pitchers in baseball this season. Currently there are 170 pitchers on the injured list in the majors – 112 of them are on the 60-day I.L., meaning those injuries are more significant.

You want to chalk that up to the pitch clock? The influence of Driveline? Both? It’s a problem in the game no matter how you slice it.

2022 Starters Finishing in the Top 10 of the Cy Young Race (2022 vs. 2023)

American League:

  • Justin Verlander – 2022: 1.75 ERA, 0.829 WHIP   2023: 4.40 ERA, 1.222 WHIP
  • Dylan Cease – 2022: 2.20 ERA, 1.109 WHIP   2023: 4.31 ERA, 1.336 WHIP
  • Alek Manoah – 2022: 2.24ERA, 0.992 WHIP   2023: 6.36ERA, 1.897 WHIP (sent to minors)
  • Shohei Ohtani – 2022: 2.33 ERA, 1.012 WHIP   2023: 3.29ERA, 1.049 WHIP
  • Framber Valdez – 2022: 2.82 ERA, 1.157WHIP   2023: 2.27ERA, 1.033 WHIP
  • Shane McClanahan – 2022: 2.54ERA, 0.926 WHIP   2023: 2.18ERA, 1.113 WHIP
  • Shane Bieber – 2022: 2.88 ERA, 1.040 WHIP   2023: 3.29 ERA, 1.221 WHIP
  • Nestor Cortes – 2022: 2.44 ERA, 0.922 WHIP   2023: 5.16 ERA, 1.298 WHIP (15-day I.L.)
  • Gerrit Cole – 2022: 3.50 ERA, 1.017 WHIP   2023: 2.75 ERA, 1.113 WHIP
  • Kevin Gausman – 2022: 3.35 ERA, 1.237 WHIP   2023: 3.12 ERA, 1.142 WHIP

National League:

  • Sandy Alcantara – 2022: 2.28ERA, 0.980 WHIP   2023: 4.75ERA, 1.176 WHIP
  • Max Fried – 2022: 2.48 ERA, 1.014 WHIP   2023: 2.08 ERA, 1.077 WHIP (60-day I.L.)
  • Julio Urias – 2022: 2.16 ERA, 0.960 WHIP   2023: 4.39 ERA, 1.157 WHIP (15-day I.L.)
  • Aaron Nola – 2022: 3.25 ERA, 0.961 WHIP   2023: 4.66 ERA, 1.099 WHIP
  • Zac Gallen – 2022: 2.54 ERA, 0.913 WHIP   2023: 3.09 ERA, 1.150 WHIP
  • Carlos Rodon – 2022: 2.88 ERA, 1.028 WHIP   2023: DNP (60-day I.L.)
  • Corbin Burnes – 2022: 2.04 ERA, 0.965 WHIP   2023: 3.44 ERA, 1.100 WHIP
  • Yu Darvish – 2022: 3.10 ERA, 0.950 WHIP   2023: 4.30 ERA, 1.159 WHIP
  • Kyle Wright – 2022: 3.19 ERA, 1.159 WHIP   2023: 5.79 ERA, 1.768 WHIP (60-day I.L.)
  • Logan Webb – 2022: 2.90 ERA, 1.159 WHIP   2023: 3.15 ERA, 1.084 WHIP

So, from that list, Valdez, McClanahan, Cole, Gausman, and Webb have improved. Ohtani’s ERA has ballooned by almost a full run, but otherwise he’s pitching close to his usual performance. Bieber and Gallen are giving up more baserunners, but they aren’t too far off. Fried is a short sample size because he got hurt and is going to be out for awhile and Rodon is hurt and hasn’t pitched at all.

As for the rest, they’ve struggled as much, if not even more than Nola. Manoah was so bad he got sent down to the minors.

And I know you might not care about pitchers on other teams and only care about the Phillies, and that’s fine. But you should see this and take into consideration the impact that changes are having on the sport as a whole. This isn’t just a Nola thing.

We talked about this at length on the most recent episode of Crossed Up. Nola’s stats don’t align. The disparity between them is too great to be sustained over a full season. In other words, something is going to have to happen for them to get more in line before the end of the season.

It’s either going to be that Nola course corrects and gets back to having numbers that are more in line with what he usually posts, or he completely implodes.

Seeing that a majority of the time he’s pitching more to his norm, it’s likely that it’s going to be the former and not the latter.

As for the No. 5 starter…

This continues to be a complaint. Hell, Bryce Harper put on his assistant GM hat and was lobbying for a fifth starter recently.

But the reality is that the Phillies have actually handled this pretty well.

I know, that sounds ridiculous, especially considering they’re 5-14 in games not started by Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, or Taijuan Walker. Especially because their pitchers who have started those 19 games have a combined 5.60 ERA and a combined 1.351 WHIP in those starts.

But again, compared to the rest of the league, it isn’t as bad as you think.

All told, entering play Thursday, every team in baseball was 362-392 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.354 WHIP in games started by their No. 5 starter or pitchers not in their original starting rotation.

Yes, the Phillies’ ERA is higher, but it’s a much smaller sample size as their pitchers in the same category have thrown just 74 innings, which is 47 1/3 innings fewer than the major league average (121 1/3).

The Phillies’ 74 starter innings from No. 5 and beyond are the seventh-fewest in the sport. Only Washington (53), the Chicago White Sox (68 1/3), Kansas City (68 1/3), Pittsburgh (69 1/3), Toronto (69 1/3), and San Francisco (70) had thrown fewer starter innings beyond their top four pitchers in the rotation.

On the converse, a team like Cleveland had thrown 213 1/3 starter innings beyond their top four pitchers.

The Phillies have a better than league average WHIP in those starts, which likely means their 5-14 record was equally on the lack of hitting as it was on not having good enough pitching depth.

That 1.351 WHIP isn’t anything to do victory laps about, but it’s better than:

  • Houston (1.478)
  • Atlanta (1.380)
  • L.A. Dodgers (1.486)
  • San Francisco (1.486)
  • Pittsburgh (1.471)
  • Arizona (1.490)
  • L.A. Angels (1.465)

Do you know what all those teams have in common? A better record currently than the Phillies.

So the Phillies are managing it better than you would think. Now, they can’t keep taxing the bullpen with bullpen games, needing 6-7 pitchers to get through nine innings. That won’t fly. But, they may have some options that makes this less of a pressing need than you think.

The spot will come up in the rotation again Saturday in Oakland, and I’m getting the sense that Christopher Sanchez will be recalled for a spot start there. After that, the spot wont be needed again until July 1 against Washington. Then July 8 in Miami, July 15 as part of a double header against San Diego, and July 22 in Cleveland. That’s it before the trade deadline.

So five more games before August. That’s it.

Noah Song, their surprise Rule 5 pick from Boston, is close to a rehab assignment. He has to be on the active roster for 90 days or else he has to be returned to the Red Sox or a deal has to be worked out. In order to accrue those 90 days this season he would need to be on the roster by July 4. Is it possible he’s ready for limited action by July 1? Can he be used for 3-4 games?

There’s this too, which, I admit, I didn’t know:

Once we hit August, how close will Andrew Painter be to making his MLB debut? Is it possible prospects like Griff McGarry or Mick Abel get a chance at a start or two as well?

The point is, the notion that the Phillies MUST add a good starter as soon as possible is a bit overblown.

It’s likely that, yes, they will add another arm, but don’t expect them to overpay for a frontline caliber starter. Last year they needed a starter and traded for Noah Syndergaard – and got to the World Series. Expect a similar sort of addition at the deadline.

But pitching is going to be at a premium this deadline. More teams will be in the race while those that are selling will be doing so with steep asking prices.

With every team needing pitching, the Phillies should just let them chase it while they procure something different.

Instead, the Phillies are more likely to look to add a bat or two at the deadline. That’s where their bigger need will be.

Yes, the offense is plugging along nicely during this hot streak, yes Nick Castellanos should be an All-Star and yes Bryson Stott is starting to enter that conversation. Yes, June Schwarber has returned and yes J.T. Realmuto woke up this week.

But for all the good to say about Bryce Harper and his miraculous return, his power isn’t quite there right now. In fact, aside from Schwarber, there’s no guarantee that anyone else in this lineup will reach 20 homers.

That’s what the Phillies need more than anything – power. And, depending on if Harper can, in fact, be a viable option at first base, will depend on what position they target. But a corner infielder makes the most sense. One with righthanded pop makes even more sense.

But, pump those breaks…

He’s right. The Phillies aren’t going to suddenly bail on all their pitching prospects – especially Painter – to make a deal like this.

But, it’s the right thought process. Add some power.

You can worry all you want about Nola and the No. 5 spot in the rotation. It says here that both will find a way of working themselves out. And for al the good you are getting out of the lineup currently, that’s where the depth is less desirable.

Add some power without selling the farm. Look to improve the bench. And yeah, you can get a depth starter too. Maybe even another early relief bullpen arm, just in case.

With the exception of the power bat, it was the same approach last year. Edmundo Sosa, Brandon Marsh, Syndergaard and David Robertson. Swap in a right handed power bat for Marsh and you can see the path Dave Dombrowski will try to take this year.

The good news is, the Phillies are putting themselves in a position for him to do just that.