As you have likely already heard, and will continue to hear and read countless times before this back-and-forth series gets decided, the Phillies have never played a winner-take-all Game 7.

Well, they will make some history Tuesday night.

On Monday night, one filled with the greatest of expectations quickly turned into a total dud as Aaron Nola failed to continue his October magic, all while the Phillies’ lineup sputtered against Merrill Kelly and a combination of four Arizona relievers. Not great.

So now what?

Some will probably adopt the “they just blew their shot” mentality after this one.

It’s possible.

But keep in mind that momentum has been a myth through the first six games of this series. Every time it seems one team has the upper hand, the other responds. There’s no reason the same can’t be true of the finale.

There you go, that’s my best shot at some free therapy after this one. Let’s do the observations.

Phils Don’t Punch Back This Time

The Phillies have excelled at frequently applying pressure to the opposition early in games, both in this series and throughout the entirety of their playoff run. They entered Game 6 striking first in eight of 11 games, including four of the first five NLCS matchups.

They also had excelled at giving the Citizens Bank Park crowd plenty to feed off of early in games.

In Game 6, both Nola and the Phillies’ lineup failed to establish any such early momentum. In turn, the sellout crowd had difficulty revving up to previously-heard levels. Can’t say I blame them.

Nola struck out the side on three different pitches (sinker, curveball and fastball) in the first. But he would soon unravel in the second, looking much like the pitcher who frequently struggled to avoid big innings throughout his 32 regular season starts.

Tommy Pham and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. started the three-run rally with back-to-back homers out to left, the first home runs Nola surrendered this postseason.

He would then lose the zone to Alek Thomas before surrendering an RBI double to Evan Longoria that made it 3-0. The deficit marked the first time the Phillies trailed by multiple runs at home this month.

By the time his 28-pitch second inning ended, Nola had surrendered more runs (three) than he had in his first three starts this postseason combined. It was a stunning sequence for a Phillies team that had been 6-0 at home this postseason and and 5-0 in closeout games dating back to last October.

When you get to this point in the run, it’s hard to employ nuance with how we consume these games.

For instance, Nola put his teammates in a sizable hole early, but he also responded to a tough second with consecutive scoreless frames. He needed just 22 pitches to get through the third and fourth innings, but again ran into problems in the fifth.

Which begs the question…

Stuck Around Too Long?

I was a bit surprised Rob Thomson let Nola have Corbin Carroll a third time. I was stunned he let Nola face Ketel Marte a third time.

Given he was in the middle of a strong run, getting Carroll isn’t crazy, but once that finished with a single up the middle, that should’ve been it.

I know. Easy to slap this up here in hindsight, I guess. But the Phillies had both Matt Strahm and Michael Lorenzen getting loose in the bullpen — why not stay aggressive and take a shot?

Phils’ Bats Fail to Deliver in Key Spots Early

Compounding Nola’s rocky start, the Phillies’ lineup missed a number of early opportunities.

They put immediate pressure on Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly, who walked two of the first three batters he faced. With Alec Bohm facing a 1-1 count, only four of Kelly’s first 13 pitches were strikes. It would have been four of the first 14 had Bohm not gone out of the zone to whiff at a 1-1 slider.

One pitch later, he was down on strikes in what was his latest failure to deliver in a key situation. On the bright (but less lower-leverage) side, Bohm would later record a pair of singles the other way, so maybe that bodes well for him leading into Game 7. We’ll see.

Bryson Stott then failed to come through with two outs, popping out to short.

An inning later, the Phillies got on the board thanks to a J.T. Realmuto double and Brandon Marsh RBI single but later missed an opportunity to add on with runners on the corners and two away.

The Phillies were quickly 1-for-7 with RISP and five runners left on base through three innings. They wouldn’t take another at-bat with a runner in scoring position the remainder of the night.

Trea Turner’s at-bat that ended the second inning was particularly tough, as he went expanded the strike zone three times on a three-pitch strikeout.

Quick Observations

  • With their season on the line Tuesday night, the Phillies could really use one of those Nick Castellanos hot streaks right now. Since capping a stretch of five homers over three games that concluded with a Game 1 shot against Arizona, Castellanos is suddenly 0-for-16 with eight strikeouts over his last five games.
  • Nice work by the little-used Michael Lorenzen, who was tabbed to keep the game within reach against the middle of Arizona’s order. The Phillies’ headline trade acquisition had not appeared in a game since Oct. 11. In the fifth, he recorded a pair of outs to strand Ketel Marte at third and keep the deficit at three runs before returning for a scoreless sixth.
  • Speaking of Lorenzen, results will dictate whether one storyline gets told (a million times) this offseason. Question whether or not Thomson should have tabbed the likes of the struggling Craig Kimbrel and Orion Kerkering the way he has in this series. That’s entirely fair, but it’s also fair to question the why as well. The Phillies’ two big pre and in-season pitching acquisitions – Taijuan Walker and Lorenzen — haven’t played a meaningful postseason role. Of course, if the Phillies go on to win, nobody will mention this. If they don’t, get ready.
  • This piece will be published prior to the postgame press conferences, but I’m sure Thomson will signal an all-hands-on-deck vibe for Game 7. Perhaps, though I wouldn’t expect to see either Kimbrel or Kerkering.
  • If you’re the Phillies in-stadium experience people, I guess you still have to play Welcome to the Jungle and do the light show thing for Kimbrel, unless he directs otherwise. Initially, I was surprised it happened, but you’re sort of showing him up if you make a change, so I get it. It was still pretty awkward though.

  • Schwarber remains the favorite for NLCS MVP, but if you’re feeling pessimistic about Game 7, Marte looks like a good bet right now.
  • Brutal baserunning by Schwarber to end the seventh. As bleak as things were, down four runs, he can’t make that out.
  • Compounding the early missed opportunities noted above was that the Phillies could not do anything against Kelly as his pitch count climbed. He recorded an out against the final eight Phillies he faced, including fifth-inning strikeouts of Schwarber and Harper.
  • After Game 7 starter Brandon Pfaadt blew the doors off the Phillies for nearly six innings last Thursday, several players and Thomson referenced the challenge of having never previously faced the 25-year-old rookie.
  • They’ll have to hope they have more success against Pfaadt than they did with Kelly tonight in a quick turnaround spot. If they don’t, there’s going to be a lot of disappointed fans and plenty of hard questions for the Phillies to answer.
  • I still think they’ll win it Tuesday night.