The Philadelphia Phillies are 15 games ahead of the Detroit Tigers in the win-loss column entering their three-game series that begins on Monday. So, yeah, needless to say the expectation is at least two wins at Comerica Park. Aaron Nola leads off the series on the mound for the Phillies, who are a -175 favorite against former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize.

Mize missed most of the last two seasons with injuries and he hasn’t been great in the Tigers rotation in 2024. The right-handed hurler owns a 4.43 ERA and opponents are batting .288 against him. Right-handed batters have a whopping .326 batting average against Mize. Detroit’s Monday starter has a home ERA that is two full points better than his road ERA and he doesn’t give up a ton of home runs. He allowed six long balls this season and has not allowed one homer in June, which is impressive because offense has been up across the league this month.

Comerica Park ranks 28th in the majors for total home runs in 2024. Only the Oakland Coliseum and the San Francisco Giants’ Oracle Park have been worse for dingers. The Phillies hit three homers during their May trip to San Francisco. Two came from Kyle Schwarber and the other from Nick Castellanos.

Detroit’s park factors and the team’s poor offensive numbers should help Nola turn in a quality start. Detroit ranks 24th in both team home runs and team batting average. Nola allowed just four home runs away from Citizens Bank Park. He pitched at least six innings in four of his six road starts and went into the eighth inning in two of those appearances.

The Tigers also rank fourth in strikeouts against right-handed pitching. Nola’s strikeout line is set at 5.5. He’s not been an overpowering strikeout guy in 2024, with six or more Ks in seven of 15 starts, but this may be the right matchup to attack that prop.


As for the Phillies batters, Alec Bohm should be the No. 1 prop target. His 64 hits against right-handed pitching is 15 more than anyone else on the roster. He enters Detroit with two or more total bases in six of his last nine games and a hit in eight of the last nine.

Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos should be the other targets. They are second and third on the team in hits against righties and they have 19 hits between them in the last seven days.  A Harper-Bohm-Castellanos hit Same Game Parlay pays out at plus-money. A 2+ total bases SGP of the three Phillies hitters is around +500 at most sportsbooks.