Phillies Need Cristopher Sanchez's Home Form to Carry Them as Favorites on Friday
There’s a lot of doom and gloom around the Philadelphia Phillies after the injury issues that popped up on Thursday. As of this writing at 1 p.m., there’s no guarantee Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper will be in the lineup against the Miami Marlins on Friday. But there is one vital piece of hope the Phillies can hold on to and that’s the home form of Cristopher Sanchez.
The newly-extended starting pitcher owns a 1.58 ERA inside Citizens Bank Park and has held opponents to a .231 batting average inside The Bank. That’s an incredible pair of statistics when you consider how homer-friendly The Bank can be once the weather warms up. Sanchez worked seven full innings in his last two starts against the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, who are better opposition than the Marlins.
It’s understandable why Sanchez’s outs prop sits at over/under 18.5 with the over at plus-money. The expectation is for him to pitch at least into the sixth inning. He may have to go seven again if Friday is a close game without Schwarber and Harper in the lineup. The Phillies are still a -230 favorite on the money line, because well, they are still a whopping 24 games ahead of the Marlins in the standings. Sanchez allowed two earned runs in 20 innings of work at home this season, so even if it is a low-scoring game, the Phils have the perfect pitcher on the mound to grind out a 2-1, 3-1-type victory. I wouldn’t touch many Phillies team total props on Friday just because of all the lineup uncertainty. Sure, they could still go out and score 4-5 runs, but the back end of the lineup is going to be weaker than usual.
The Marlins are starting Kyle Tyler, who allowed two earned runs on four hits in four innings in his last outing against the Seattle Mariners. Miami’s starting pitching depth is nonexistent at the moment so it is just looking for guys to eat up innings. Tyler did walk three batters and give up a home run in his last start, so it’s clear that at least Sanchez has the advantage on paper.
The win is expected to blow out to left field on Friday night, so maybe Trea Turner and Alec Bohm are the best player prop targets. They certainly will have more responsibility to drive in runs if Schwarber and Harper aren’t in the lineup. If the lineup is jumbled and affected by injuries, the most fireworks we might see at The Bank on Friday will be from the post-game fireworks show.