Phillies Success: Aaron Nola Hasn't been a Hot Topic, But Maybe He Should Be
There’s been a lot of fawning over the Phillies starting rotation this season, and for good reason.
They’re at the top, or near the top of the rankings in several statistical categories.
As you wake up on June 1st, you will find the Phillies rotation has done this:
- ERA – 2.69 (1st in MLB)
- Strikeouts – 350 (1st in MLB)
- Batting average against – .210 (2nd in MLB, 1st in NL)
- On Base percentage against – .273 (2nd in MLB, 1st in NL)
- Slugging Percentage against – .379 (1st in MLB)
- Total Innings Pitched – 348 1/3 (1st in MLB) – That’s an average of six innings per start
- Home runs allowed per nine innings – 0.8 (tied for 1st in MLB)
- WHIP – 1.07 (2nd in MLB, 1st in NL)
- BABIP – .262 (3rd in MLB, 1st in NL)
- FIP – 3.25 (1st in MLB)
- Fly Ball percentage – 31.6% (2nd in MLB)
(all stats courtesy of Fangraphs)
It’s almost staggering to be this good collectively. And we’ve heard about all the stories since the spring.
Zack Wheeler came into 2024 as one of the two favorites to be the N.L. Cy Young winner and has not disappointed.
Ranger Suarez has had a historic start to his season and has thrust himself into that same conversation with Wheeler.
Cristopher Sanchez has elevated his pitching beyond all expectations and is throwing like a No. 2 when he came into the season as the expected No. 5 in the Phillies rotation.
Spencer Turnbull was even a fun story early in the season, being a late add on a cheap contract who gave the Phillies six brilliant starts in April and forced us all to debate whether he should stay in the rotation or not once Taijuan Walker was heathy.
All of those stories and conversations were pertinent – and still are. But there’s been one guy who’s kind of just been there doing his thing and not getting much of the spotlight this season – and that’s Aaron Nola.
It’s kind of surprising, to be honest. He’s the longest tenured player on the team. He’s been a fan lightning rod for years with folks coming down on either the love him or get rid of him side for several years.
He’s had his ups and downs sure, but his ups have far outweighed his downs, which is why the Phillies committed $172 million to him for the next seven years coming into 2024.
And it just seems right now like Nola’s performances have mostly flown under the radar.
Yeah, there was that complete game shutout a few starts ago that got some attention, but most nights when he pitches, Nola just goes out, does his thing, pitches deep into the game, doesn’t give up much, and the Phillies win – just like they did when they defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-2 on Friday, to become the first team to 40 wins in 2024 and only the third team to ever hit 40 wins before the month of June. (The Yankees would join them later on Friday night).
In the game, Nola went 6 1/3 innings, allowing three hits, two runs, two walks and had six strikeouts. He picked up his seventh win of the season.
Aaron Nola, Sick 94mph Front Door Two Seamer. 🤒
22 Inches of Run pic.twitter.com/UxR4pFRjxc
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 31, 2024
And yet in the postgame press conference, nobody asked Phillies manager Rob Thomson about Nola’s game. There were questions about other pitchers – as the bullpen continues to be spectacular as well – and there were questions about Edmundo Sosa, who continues to be otherworldly at the plate while filling in for Trea Turner, and Bryson Stott’s defense, which was sensational Friday, but nothing about Nola.
Thomson is often good about talking about all his pitchers in those pressers, even if not asked about them, and he even almost forgot about Nola, Friday.
When talking about the bullpen, almost as an afterthought he added, “And Nola was really good too.”
Maybe it’s his consistency, which is back after a tumultuous 2023 that saw wildly different outcomes for him from one game to the next, that he just goes out, throws a lot of innings, limits damage, and does so in a very methodical, unflashy way, that has made everyone fall into a comfort zone of expectation for him.
Quality starts is usually a fugazi stat. That being said, Aaron Nola just threw his 8th in 12 starts this season. His numbers in those starts:
57 2/3 IP
32 H
16 R
14 ER
13 BB
53 K
2.19 ERA
0.780 WHIPI’d say that’s pretty quality.
— Anthony SanFilippo (@AntSanPhilly) June 1, 2024
And why not? He’s allowed three runs or fewer in 10 of his 12 starts this season. Hell, take away his first start of the season against Atlanta, where he was rocked for seven runs and 11 hits in just 4 1/3 innings, and Nola’s numbers would be right there with Wheeler and Suarez in the Cy Young conversation:
2.47 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, .180 batting average against.
The Phillies are 10-2 in games started by Nola this year. He’s third in the majors and tops in the NL in innings pitched this season (77 1/3). Only three pitchers have won more games than his seven.
And yet, he’s kind of just blended into the overall story that has been this historic Phillies start.
He’s not jumping off the page at you. His 3.03 ERA ranks 25th in baseball amongst qualified pitchers, which is very good. His 1.034 WHIP is tied for 20th – also very good. He’s allowing just 6.8 hits per nine innings which is tied for 17th – even better.
It’s gotten to a point where this is expected out of Nola. Every time it’s his turn, throw 6+ innings, don’t give up a lot, and then the Phillies win. Rinse. Wash. Repeat.
And it’s because of that consistency that it’s a good bet that Nola will be talked about more as the season goes on, and he’s still just doing his thing. Or maybe, some places are starting to realize he’s absolutely trending toward a very good season.
ESPN currently has Ranger Suarez in the NL Cy Young lead with Zack Wheeler & Aaron Nola in the Top 5.
ESPN’s full Cy Young Predictor: https://t.co/HYnvXS4j9K pic.twitter.com/UpWvbSdOSV
— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) June 1, 2024