There’s no better time than an off day to look into the Phillies’ future. Right on cue, this Jeff Passan tweet:

The Phillies head into a brutal stretch with only a half-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles for baseball’s best record.

It’s important to bring this up now because the Phillies are about to embark on a two-week stretch where they play the Atlanta Braves seven times and have three-game series with the Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros.

As of Monday morning, the Phillies sit as the second favorite to win the World Series at FanDuel and the third favorite at DraftKings. The Dodgers are ahead of them at both sites, while the New York Yankees are also in front at DK.

The Phils are understandably the second favorite to win the National League pennant and finish with the top seed in the NL across the board because of how the Dodgers are viewed.


The next two weeks are important because the Phils close the regular season with a favorable schedule. Nine of the 16 road games after September 3rd are against the Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, and Miami Marlins, all of whom have given up on the season.

The home schedule features the New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, and Tampa Bay Rays, all of whom the Phils can beat in series.

A three-game midweek road series in Milwaukee could determine whether the Brewers are a contender for the top seed.

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Realistically, the No. 1 seed and then the NL pennant are the two things that should be at the front of the discussion.

The NL East is locked up with a .500 record against the Braves over the next two weeks and Atlanta could be weakened even more for those series depending on Austin Riley’s status. He got hit in the hand on Sunday and left the game. His status is up in the air for Tuesday’s opener in Atlanta.

The Phillies’ problem is the Dodgers.

LA starts a nine-game homestand on Monday and they only have three games left against the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres.

Arizona and San Diego are two of the hottest teams in baseball, but outside of a four-game set in Arizona next weekend, neither team has a direct way to catch the Dodgers.

Arizona actually plays the Brewers more than the Dodgers in the final month-and-a-half. Milwaukee plays 10 straight against the DBacks and Phils in mid-September that will decide where they land in the NL standings as the Central Division winner.

That’s why every decision Rob Thomson makes in the next six weeks will be criticized so intensely. Holding home-field advantage in the NLCS is so important when the top pitchers on the staff are performing so well inside the stadium, especially Cristopher Sanchez. You could argue Sanchez could be a Game 2 starter in a home-field NLCS because of his home/road splits, but that’s a debate to have at a later date.

Right now, the odds makers are correct in having the Dodgers ahead of the Phillies.

Of course, everything could change in the span of a week. That’s how things work in baseball, but for now, there’s a small uphill climb facing the Phils to not just be level with the Dodgers, but to be clear of them for the No. 1 seed.