Phillies a Whopping -370 Series Favorite Against Nationals
Everything is right in the world now that the Philadelphia Phillies have won one game.
Okay, every issue facing the Phillies may not be completely fixed, but at least Wednesday’s win was something to build on.
Now enter the Washington Nationals to Citizens Bank Park against the three pitchers that will likely begin a playoff series for the Phils.
Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sanchez are scheduled to start in that order for the four-game series that begins on Thursday.
That’s more than good reason to list the Phillies as a -370 series favorite against a Nationals team that is 11 games under .500 and 6-6 since August 1st.
The disparity in starting pitching is what drives home that price.
The Nats are scheduled to throw Mitchell Parker, Patrick Corbin, Mackenzie Gore, and Jake Irvin, in that order.
Corbin has been a top pitcher to fade for the last two years, Gore’s dealing with some struggles, Parker needs to twirl a gem to keep up with Wheeler, and Irvin has been okay after a strong first half.
Sunday’s game is the big crapshoot with Irvin, who is arguably the Nats’ best pitcher, going up against Taijuan Walker, who is the biggest liability in the Phils’ rotation at the moment.
The Phillies’ path to winning the series is quite clear:
Hit lefties well, which they have done this season, and ride the top three arms in the rotation to victory.
Wheeler, Nola, and Sanchez all have far better home ERAs compared to the road, which is bizarre when you take a step back because The Bank is viewed as one of the top hitter-friendly parks in baseball.
Wheeler allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts. He allowed two earned runs over 7.1 innings against the Nats at home on May 17. That points me to the over on Wheeler’s outs prop of 18.5. He just needs to get one out in the seventh inning for that to hit. Seems like an easy task against the Nationals.
I would look into Nola and Sanchez’s out props with New Jersey online sports betting when they’re posted. Nola pitched six full innings in four of his last six starts. Sanchez got to 17 outs in all but one of his home starts this season. He went seven frames against Washington in May.
As for the hitters, Friday should be a feast against Corbin. Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto, and Kyle Schwarber all have multiple home runs against the Nationals left-hander. Bryce Harper also has a .326 career batting average against him.
Six players on the Phillies roster all have at least home run against Gore. Nick Castellanos is the only one with two dingers.
Corbin’s allowed 28 hits in his last three starts and Gore let up 30 in his last four appearances, so yeah, get ready for your boys to post some green bet slips with ridiculous odds over the next two days.
The series victory should be wrapped up by Saturday night, if everything goes well, and then that can create some momentum going into the Atlanta series next week.