Should Edmundo Sosa and Bryson Stott be a True Phillies Platoon for the Rest of the Season?
When recording the most recent episode of Crossed Up, Bob asked me a very interesting question. Should the Phillies consider playing Edmundo Sosa ahead of Bryson Stott at second base in the playoffs?
The initial reaction, based on two-plus years of watching Stott become one of the most popular Phillies on the roster in this city, is that the question is ridiculous.
Sosa is a nice complementary piece for a championship-caliber team, but he doesn’t have the “it factor” that Stott has. Stott is a Gold Glove caliber second baseman. Oh, and he’s come up clutch in the playoffs before:
Good morning. Bryson Stott hit a grand slam last night, if you didn’t know.
Also: Citizens Bank Park in October is the greatest stadium in the history of sports. pic.twitter.com/6B6odUHIZx
— Luke Arcaini (@ArcainiLuke) October 5, 2023
But if you let the initial reaction to the question wear off for a minute, you can start to see and understand why Bob asked it, and a little look into the numbers makes the question far more rational than you ever would have thought.
Because here we are, 57 days from the start of the postseason, and Sosa is still playing well, when used, as he has all season – first as a fill-in when Trea Turner was injured, and since as super utility infielder.
Meanwhile, Stott is continuing to struggle to emerge from his season-long offensive malaise.
Just looking at raw numbers, Sosa has been the better player:
- Sosa: .277/.330/.462; .792 OPS
- Stott: .239/.317/.351; .668 OPS
The caveat here is Stott has nearly twice as many plate appearances. Still, Sosa has shown significantly more slug than Stott. Stott (22) only has two more extra base hits than Sosa (20) in 161 more at bats.
If you dive deeper into the analytics, you’ll find that Stott pales in comparison on some measurables too (data courtesy of Baseball Savant):
Sosa Stott
Avg. Exit velocity (mph): 86.5 84.5 (bottom 12% in MLB)
Barrell percentage: 9.0% 3.7% (bottom 11% in MLB)
Hard hit percentage: 40.7% 29.2% (bottom 9% in MLB)
Bat speed (mph): 72.8 67.9 (bottom 6% in MLB)
Batting Run Value: +12 -7 (bottom 20% in MLB)
(Note: Stott’s rankings are among qualified hitters. Sosa is not ranked because he doesn’t have enough plate appearances).
Based on all the stats and data provided, you can see why Bob asked the question he did. But when you look at splits, you start to see something a little different.
Sosa still maintains a significant advantage over Stott against left-handed pitchers – which is why he seems to be getting all the starts against lefties lately – like Thursday in Arizona – while Stott is on the bench.
This season, they have played almost an identical amount of time against lefties. Sosa is slashing .291/358/523 for an OPS of .881 in 95 plate appearances while Stott has had 96 plate appearances and is only posting a slash line of .229/.333/.289 for an OPS of .623.
Stott has completely fallen off the map against lefties compared to where he was in 2023. Last year, in 167 plate appearances against lefties, Stott posted a line of .282/.347/.383 for a .730 OPS. That’s a drop of more than 100 points in OPS year-over-year. Combine that with the success Sosa has had against lefties and it’s understandable as to why, in the moment, manager Rob Thomson is going with Sosa ahead of Stott against a lefty starter.
But do the numbers bear out making Sosa the regular guy, as Bob asked? Or is there something redeeming enough in Stott’s 2024 season that should keep him in the mix?
Believe it or not, Sosa’s numbers against righties are better than Stott’s as well. However, a couple things to note here. The first is,\ that it’s a much smaller sample size, so there’s more volatility possible in those numbers. Secondly, they are pretty close, overall:
- Sosa: 118PA; 266/308/413; .721OPS
- Stott: 273PA; 242/312/370; .682OPS
Stott actually gets on base more than Sosa despite a lower batting average. And again, Sosa’s numbers could fluctuate more negatively if given more chances against righties considering the smaller sample.
Not to mention, the Phillies don’t want to overexpose Sosa. In the past – including earlier this season – he has started to see his numbers taper off when used more extensively than 2-3 times a week. Considering that, and the fact that Stott is a better base runner/base stealer and although both are good defensively, Stott is better at second base, it’s worth the trade-off of a little bit of OPS for better on base, speed and defense.
Considering the disparity isn’t as severe as it is against lefties, it makes more sense to keep Stott engaged as a regular against right-handed pitching.
Edmundo Sosa’s rbi double provides an insurance run for the Phillies!
pic.twitter.com/b3qrn10YxO— Andrew Coté (@acote_88) August 9, 2024
So how would I answer Bob?
I would tell him, no, Sosa shouldn’t be the regular second baseman in the playoffs, but yes, a platoon is probably the best way to go. According to Baseball Reference, Sosa has been worth 2.5 WAR this season and Stott 2.3 WAR. And while together they aren’t making a 4.8 WAR player (the math doesn’t work that way), taking advantage of their platoon splits makes each a little bit more valuable than they would be by themselves.
I would also tell him that Stott’s drop-off in production is probably the biggest surprise of the Phillies season. More so than Alec Bohm’s breakout. More than Cristopher Sanchez becoming an All-Star pitcher. More than Kyle Schwarber posting a career high in singles by early August.
Stott seemed to be on a speeding train to stardom in Philadelphia, only to have that train jump the track this summer. It doesn’t mean he can’t get back on the rails and get back on his expected trajectory. In fact, I still believe he will.
But it may not be in 2024.
Not every player’s progression is linear. Stott has had to take a fork in the road and chosen a longer path. The Phillies still believe in him, but there’s an overarching theme that trumps individual progress for this team in 2024 – and that’s winning a championship.
So, Stott will still get his chances to break out of his season-long funk. He will still get a bulk of the plate appearances at second base. And he should. But this is all about winning now, and unless Stott has a dramatic turnaround in the next two months, Sosa has earned the right to be part of that second base platoon, not just for the rest of the regular season, but in the playoffs as well.