The Phillies have won four of the five games they’ve played against the Los Angeles Dodgers this season. In the grand scheme of things, that’s not that big a deal.

How teams fare against one another in the regular season is not necessarily a precursor of what is to come in the postseason. We’ve experienced that first-hand in Philadelphia the previous two seasons with the Atlanta Braves getting the better of the Phillies from March through Sepetmber and the Phillies then turning the tables on them in October.

So, the fact that the Phillies beat the Dodgers 6-2 on Tuesday to guarantee that they win the season series only matters if the two teams finish the season with the same record, meaning the Phillies would have a tiebreaker and therefore homefield advantage in a potential playoff matchup, likely the NLCS, if both teams hold on to their spots atop their respective divisions and get through the minefield of a shorter NLDS series against inferior, yet scrappy opposition.

If that hypothetical matchup does come to fruition between the two teams currently with the best records in the National League, what happened in July and August won’t have any impact on what happens in October, either at Citizens Bank Park or Dodgers Stadium.

There’s a lot of baseball to be played between now and then. Players that are scuffling now could be red hot then. Players who are going well now can be ice cold in the cooler months.


Clayton Kershaw, who started Tuesday, is still working his way back from a shoulder injury that sidelined him the entire first half of the season. Mookie Betts is still on the injured list and adds a whole different element to the Los Angeles lineup.

Conversely, the Dodgers will face Tyler Phillips on Wednesday. As great a story as he’s been, it’s a pretty good bet that he won’t be starting an NLCS game unless something goes horribly wrong.

There’s not much that you can really glean for October from these games. There’s a lot to discuss and break down in the moment, sure. That’s the beauty of baseball – there’s always something different to talk about every day during the season and within the context of how a team is playing at that particular point in time.

But there are small things you can take away from these games that give you an inkling of what might happen in a hypothetical October matchup.

Namely Matt Strahm vs. Shohei Ohtani.

Not many pitchers have sustained success against Ohtani. He’s clearly the best hitter in the game right now. He’s likely going to win the N.L. MVP. He is the face of the sport. Everything about him is amplified, both nationally and internationally. When the Dodgers were in Philadelphia last month, the press box was packed to the gills – all because of the traveling media party for Ohtani that just might match the rabble that follow the U.S. President around the globe.

While Strahm has a small sample size – just five plate appearances, he has gotten Ohtani out four times, and the only time he didn’t was four years ago while with the Padres when he allowed a single.

But three of those five times have come this season. And all three have come late in a game, protecting a lead, with runners on base and a chance Ohtani could inflict some serious damage.

For the third time in the last four games between the two teams, Phillies manager Rob Thomson has called on Strahm to get the presumptive N.L. MVP in a key spot.

Back on July 10th, it was in the top of the seventh, with two men on base and the Phillies protecting a two-run lead.

Strahm struck him out:

The next night, the Phillies were up by four, so it wasn’t as high leverage, but with a runner on and Ohtani’s power, the game could have gotten uncomfortable. It didn’t, as Strahm got Ohtani to ground out to second.

The Phillies were rolling back then. Almost a month later, they’re trying to find themselves again. While they are trying to grind through it, the Phillies found themselves in a familiar spot – with a lead over the Dodgers late in a game, with traffic on the basepaths and the prospect of Ohtani coming to the plate looming.

Up by three runs in the seventh inning, with two runners on base, Thomson turned to Strahm.

He got the two guys at the bottom of the Los Angeles lineup – Nick Ahmed and Austin Barnes, setting up the showdown with Ohtani.

When Strahm struck out Ohtani last month, he got him fishing for his slider, making Ohtani look a little foolish as his helmet nearly came off on the swing.

This time, it was a matter of determining when to drop that slider on him.

Ohtani worked a full count – on four fastballs and a surprise cutter – a pitch Strahm doesn’t normally throw to lefties but got Ohtani to swing through.

Strahm told reporters after the game that he hadn’t thrown a cutter to a left-handed hitter since Spring Training… in 2023.

That one was to O’Neil Cruz, of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Cruz crushed it down the right field line… but fortunately for Strahm, it hooked foul.

But he and Realmuto decided to pull it out of the bag of tricks against Ohtani, almost to surprise him as much as themselves.

It worked:

After two fastballs outside the zone that ran the count full, that’s when Strahm finally decided to pull the slider out of the bag.

Ohtani made contact this time, but not good enough contact. He flew out to right field. Strahm had won the battle for the third time in as many tries – something few pitchers can say about facing Ohtani.

“I like it,” said Thomson about matching up Strahm against Ohtani. “He’s a great hitter, so you have to give him credit. Strahm, fortunately, has pitched him well.”

It’s information that the Phillies will put in their back pocket for October.

These matchups were high leverage, for sure, but the stakes will be even higher in the postseason. And we know, from the experience of the past two Octobers that Thomson relies heavily on matchups. The Phillies will have at least three lefties available out of the pen (depending on scheduling and off days, there is always a chance that either Ranger Suarez or Cristopher Sanchez could be used in relief), but the bet is now that if they are facing Ohtani and the lead or the game is on the line, that Thomson’s first choice will be Strahm.