After a crucial weekend series win against the New York Mets, the Phillies will be headed back to their third-straight Red October and will claim the NL East pennant sometime this week, barring an epic collapse.

It’ll be a bit of a different vibe this year compared to the last two seasons. The Phillies fought their way into the playoffs in 2022 and 2023 and had to play on Wild Card weekend both times, going undefeated in both series. Now? They’ll go in arguably as the NL favorite, with a first-round bye once they lock up one of the top two seeds.

A first-round bye allows the Phillies to reset their starting rotation. Zack Wheeler will be the unanimous Game 1 pitcher, but things get a little weird after that with the MLB playoff format. The highest seed of the series plays the first two games at home in the divisional round, games three and four on the road, and game five (if needed) back at home.

Cristopher Sanchez has emerged as a star in 2024. He has the lowest ERA in the entire National League at home (minimum 75 IP). Hitters are batting just .219 at Citizens Bank Park against him. He’s logged two complete games at the Bank and has cleared 6+ strikeouts in six of his home starts. His away splits have been… concerning.

Sanchez has a 5.13 ERA on the road with a 3-6 record in 66.2 innings. Hitters have crushed him for a .314 OBA. He’s struck out 40 fewer batters in two fewer starts than at home. You could say some of these numbers are skewed, with 11 of those earned runs allowed coming in just two starts, but the concerns are obviously there.


Aaron Nola is a workhorse. He’s been the consistent anchor of this Phillies rotation for ten years, even through the struggles. The last two starts (9 IP, 15 H, 10 ER) have been bad, but Rob Thomson and the rest of the Phillies organization know that isn’t who Aaron Nola is.

Do you consider sliding Aaron Nola to Game 3 to cater to Sanchez’s home dominance?

Let’s think of it this way:

In a five-game series, it makes sense if you’re looking at the numbers. Depending on matchups, Sanchez would start Game 2 at home, while Aaron Nola would pitch on the road for Game 3. You’d have Ranger Suarez for Game 4, then Wheeler back up for a deciding Game 5.

A seven-game series sets up similarly because of the 2/3/2 format in hosting. Sanchez would go Game 2 and Nola would go Game 3; however, if the series went 5+ games, Sanchez would be lined up to throw that sixth game and get two starts at Citizens Bank Park. It would set up Aaron Nola to throw Game 7 at home:

  • five-game series: Wheeler (home), Sanchez (home), Nola (road), Suarez (road), Wheeler (home)
  • seven-game series: Wheeler (home), Sanchez (home), Nola (road), Suarez (road), Wheeler (road), Sanchez (home), Nola (home)

How much the Phillies rely on home/away splits will somewhat determine this decision, although I don’t think they’ll look as far into this as we’d like. Aaron Nola’s 2024 has been one of his best years, and the team still has all the confidence in the world in his ability to lock down a good lineup. The stats show that Nola has had a better campaign at home, but the Phillies trust him no matter the ballpark.

  • Aaron Nola at home: 16 Starts, 3.31 ERA, 100 Ks, .219 OBA
  • Aaron Nola on the road: 14 Starts, 4.00 ERA, 74 Ks, .276 OBA

If you’re going off of splits, the answer is Cristopher Sanchez. He will have to pitch at some point in the playoffs, and the ideal situation is that start happening at The Bank. But if you’re going off of experience, the answer is Aaron Nola.