The season-opening marathon that is NFL Week 1 ends on Monday night with Aaron Rodgers’ New York Jets return against the San Francisco 49ers.

First and foremost, the Jets hope Rodgers stays on the field for more than one drive after he tore his Achilles on the first series on Monday night last year.

New York has sky-high expectations with a healthy Rodgers, a strong defense and two of the best offensive skill players in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson.

The 49ers are still together after the offseason contract drama. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey are all back alongside Brock Purdy to (hopefully not in the case of Philly fans) chase another Super Bowl appearance.

McCaffrey is the player in the spotlight from a betting perspective because he sat out most of the preseason with a calf injury. The 49ers then designated it as a calf/Achilles injury on their Week 1 injury report.


Not great!

But McCaffrey still intends to play and his props are set at over/under 71.5 rushing yards and 35.5 receiving yards.

A healthy McCaffrey is one of the best players in the NFL, but the 49ers can win without him, or at least with him not at 100 percent, and I believe that’s the way you have to approach the game.

Deebo Samuel is probably the 49ers’ second best running back on the roster. Jordan Mason is the backup, but let’s be real, he might not have more carries than Samuel.

The Jets’ biggest strength on defense is their cornerbacks. I would expect Kyle Shanahan to find ways to take his stars away from Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed.

Enter Samuel’s effectiveness in the rushing attack. Samuel’s rushing yard prop is over/under 13.5. He went over that line 11 times in the last two regular seasons.

There’s an even bigger trend to look out for regarding the 49ers offense. George Kittle is apparently the best tight end in the league when he plays on Monday night.

Kittle has 42 catches for 545 yards on Mondays in his career. He’s had five games with 70 or more receiving yards in his eight Monday appearances, including a seven-catch, 126-yard game on Christmas Day last season.

Kittle’s props are currently over/under 3.5 receptions and over/under 44.5 receiving yards. Monday night trend aside, he could be the 49ers’ way to unlock the Jets defense. New York gave up the fifth-most touchdowns to tight ends in 2023.

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That’s enough on the 49ers, let’s talk about the Jets.

What we know for sure is that Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are their studs. Allen Lazard is still there because he’s friends with Aaron Rodgers, they have an average tight end in Tyler Conklin, and Mike Williams will make an impact if he doesn’t end up on the injured reserve by Week 4 again.

Sometimes you just have to stick to sure things and that’s Hall and Wilson.

Hall’s rushing-yard prop sits at over/under 64.5 and his receiving-yard prop is over/under 28.5. The Jets don’t really have a backup running back who excels in pass-catching, so Hall could be on the field a ton. He had at least 29 receiving yards in eight games last season.

Wilson owns the highest receptions (5.5) and receiving yard (69.5) props on the board, and while he will get a ton of targets, he is also the primary big-play threat in the Jets offense and the 49ers could key in on that.

I would put more trust in Hall’s receiving props because the 49ers are likely going to test Rodgers’ Achilles with a heavy pass rush and that will result in a lot of quick throws.

FanDuel is offering a No Sweat Same Game Parlay that has to be three legs and +400 or higher odds. The over on Samuel’s rushing yards and Hall and Kittle’s receiving yards gets you to +517.

DraftKings has a No Sweat touchdown scorer token that I would advise using on Samuel (+160) or Hall (+120) since McCaffrey is listed at -170 to score.