The new version of the College Football Playoff kicks off on Friday and Saturday.

It’s cool that all four first-round games are on campus sites, but there’s a small fear that each of the games will be blowouts.

That’s because all four games have spreads of a touchdown or more.

Ohio State is favored by 7 points, Notre Dame by 7.5, Penn State is an 8.5-point favorite, and Texas is a whopping 12-point favorite.

So yeah, let’s hope the games are a lot closer than the numbers indicate.


 

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame (-7.5) (O/U: 51)

The big concern with Indiana is that they no-showed against Ohio State in November.

The Hoosiers haven’t been tested much outside of that, while Notre Dame is 3-0 against Top 25 teams. It’s worth noting, though, two of those wins came against Army and Navy.

Notre Dame is 9-2-1 against the spread and Indiana is 9-3 . Indiana’s only been an underdog once and failed to cover as a 10.5-point dog against Ohio State. The Irish are 8-3 ATS as a favorite of seven points or more.

Indiana is one of seven teams in the FBS with nine wins to the over. The Hoosiers are 9-3 to the over, while ND is 7-5 to the over.

Notre Dame scored at least 35 points in each of their last five games and all of those wins were by double figures.

If anything, the Irish have been a consistent scoring machine, and due to Indiana’s Ohio State loss, the prevailing logic is ND will advance to play Georgia.

 

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State (-8.5) (O/U: 54)

Penn State’s most notable trend is a 4-0 mark to the over in the last four games.

That goes against the Nittany Lions’ home form, though, as they’ve held opponents to 78 total points, 27 of which were scored in Week 2 by Bowling Green.

James Franklin’s team went 6-1 at Beaver Stadium. All of those wins were by at least seven points. Five of those triumphs were by double digits.

SMU has only been an underdog twice this season. They won outright on both occasions, including as a seven-point dog on October 5th against Louisville.

The Mustangs have put up at least 28 points in all of their five road games, but it’s also worth noting some of those opponents were Virginia, Nevada, Duke, and Stanford. Not exactly a murderers’ row of opponents.

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No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas (-12) (O/U: 52)

Clemson only got into the playoff with its ACC Championship Game win over Texas.

The Tigers are by far the worst team of the 12 in the playoff, and the odds support that statement.

Clemson is 6-7 ATS and 6-7 to the over, while Texas is 7-6 ATS and 3-8-2 to the over.

The under either hit or pushed in all but one Texas game since Week 3. The Longhorns have an elite defense, and over the last five games, they’ve held opponents to 17, 10, 14, 7, and 22 points. The highest of those totals came in an overtime loss to UGA in the SEC Championship Game.

Only Georgia scored more than 17 points in Austin against the Longhorns.

Clemson went 4-o on the road, but again, like SMU, those results can’t be completely thrown in as a trend for Saturday because of the weak conference.

The ACC champion’s more stark trend is a 1-2 record against Top 25 opponents, and 17 total points scored in a pair of defeats to two SEC opponents.

 

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State (-7) (O/U: 46.5)

Ohio State’s 5-7 record to the over is the most notable trend here.

The Buckeyes possess the best defense in the FBS, and Tennessee’s unit isn’t that shabby either, as it ranks in the top five in points and yards allowed per game.

The Vols are 7-5 to the over and they are 2-2 to the over in true road games this season. One of the overs, in a loss to Georgia, only hit the over by one point.

Tennessee’s two straight-up losses occurred on the road, at Arkansas and at Georgia, and it could face a tough time in Columbus. No team has scored more than 17 points on the Buckeyes inside Ohio Stadium.

Ohio State has one giant question mark looming over it because of its underwhelming loss to Michigan, but it’s also worth noting the Buckeyes went 2-1 against top-five teams and only lost by one to top-ranked Oregon.