
A Look at the Player Prop Odds and Trends for NFL Conference Championship Weekend
Sometimes you just have to keep it simple when it comes to prop betting in the NFL postseason.
The Eagles, Commanders, Chiefs, and Bills all have defined game plans and want their stars to be involved on a regular basis.
That means Saquon Barkley, Travis Kelce and others will be among the most popular players to bet on conference championship weekend.
All of the player props are set for the weekend and here’s a look at some of the most important trends for those props heading into Sunday.
NFC Championship Game
Saquon Barkley has the highest rushing yard prop in the history of DraftKings Sportsbook at O/U 130.5.
That’s an insane number even for someone of Barkley’s caliber.
Barkley had 119 rushing yards against Green Bay and 205 yards versus the Rams. The latter number is the one that drove the prop far higher than it was last week.
The one prop with the most interest to me is A.J. Brown’s receiving yards at 61.5.
Yes, the offense is still going to run though the ground game, but Brown had 65 and 97 receiving yards against the Commanders in the regular season.
Washington gave up 434 and 338 total yards to the Eagles this season and let up 531 total yards last week to the Lions.
There will be opportunities for the Eagles to produce big plays, and if Jalen Hurts is feeling good in the pocket, I’d expect Brown to get a heavy dose of targets.
As for the Commanders, Terry McLaurin comes into Sunday with two straight 80-yard performances, but he was held to 70 total yards by the Eagles (mainly Quinyon Mitchell) in the regular season. McLaurin’s prop is set at 64.5. The under looks enticing based on what the Eagles have done against him.
Dyami Brown has been Washington’s surprise star with 187 receiving yards in the postseason. He only had two regular-season games with 50+ receiving yards.
Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz should be heavily involved as well, especially if McLaurin is shut down. Ekeler had seven receptions for 67 yards and Ertz produced seven catches for 51 yards in the first two rounds.
AFC Championship Game
Any player prop conversation regarding the AFC Championship Game starts with Kelce.
The Chiefs tight end is now up 14 straight postseason games with at least 70 receiving yards. Kelce’s receiving yard prop sits at 69.5, an 18-yard jump from the number set for him in the divisional round.
Kelce only had two catches for eight yards in the regular-season meeting with the Bills, but do not let that deter you from betting on Kelce this weekend.
Xavier Worthy led the Chiefs in receptions against the Bills earlier this season. He had five catches on six targets in the divisional round.
Worthy is the No. 2 target behind Kelce until proven otherwise, so some sort of Same Game Parlay combination of Worthy receptions and Kelce receiving yards is the safest way to go.
The Bills have a fairly straightforward approach as well. Khalil Shakir is Josh Allen’s top target. He was targeted 12 times in the win over the Chiefs. He caught eight passes for 70 yards in that win.
Allen spread the ball out to a handful of other pass-catchers, but Shakir is very clearly the guy. He had six catches and over 60 yards in each of the first two rounds. Shakir’s props are set at 5.5 receptions and 55.5 receiving yards.
Figuring out the rest of the receiving-based props is guesswork. Mahomes and Allen have their guys, and while they will spread the ball around a bit, Worthy, Kelce, and Shakir will earn a bulk of the targets.
As for rushing props, I’d actually look at both quarterbacks before I would turn to the running backs. The Chiefs were ineffective on the ground last week with both Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, both of whom have rushing yard props under 40 yards.
Mahomes has at least six rushing attempts in his last four postseason games. I would look into the over on his rushing attempt prop at 4.5. That’s the better way to approach it instead of the rushing-yard prop of 25.5 that Mahomes has gone over in just three of his last eight playoff games.
On the other hand, Allen has had at least 50 rushing yards in seven of his 12 career playoff games. He had 68, 72 and 88 rushing yards in three career playoff meetings with the Chiefs.
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