Eagles vs. Packers Wild Card Weekend Betting Preview
We all took one collective sigh of relief on Friday afternoon.
Jalen Hurts has cleared concussion protocol and will play on Sunday afternoon against the Packers.
With that news, the Eagles now comfortably sit as a 5.5-point favorite. The over/under is 45.5.
There might be some late line movement on Sunday toward the Packers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers stay relatively the same until kickoff.
The Birds come into the postseason with the fifth-best against the spread record among playoff teams. That might not sound great, but the Eagles went 11-6 ATS in the regular season. Denver, Detroit, and the Los Angeles Chargers went 12-5 while Minnesota was 11-5-1.
Green Bay had the third-worst regular-season ATS record among playoff teams at 9-8. Kansas City and Houston had worse records. The Packers are 3-2 ATS as an underdog, but they haven’t been more than a 3.5-point dog all season long. The Eagles are 3-3 ATS as a 5.5-point favorite or higher.
The more striking trend with both teams is how little they hit the over, even though the Week 1 matchup in Brazil skied the total.
The Eagles are 10-7 to the under, while the Packers are 8-8-1 to the under. Sunday’s total of 45.5 falls right in the middle of the over/unders for both teams’ games in the regular season.
Four of Green Bay’s eight hits on the over came when the total closed above 45 points. The Eagles are 5-5 to the over when totals closed at 45 or higher.
Translation: If you hammered the over already, the trends at least support you having a chance despite many people automatically taking unders because it’s the postseason.
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As for player props, there’s a lot you can take from the Week 1 clash in Brazil.
Saquon Barkley ran for 109 yards and two scores, A.J. Brown had 100-yard receiving day and DeVonta Smith produced 84 receiving yards. Josh Jacobs got over 80 rushing yards and Jayden Reed led all players with 138 yards for the Packers.
Green Bay is just two weeks removed from giving up 442 total yards, 372 through the air, to the Minnesota Vikings. It’s worth noting the Packers held their last four opponents under 100 rushing yards. Four of Green Bay’s five-worst pass-yard concessions came on the road.
A.J. Brown’s receiving-yard prop sits at 81.5, while DeVonta Smith is at 62.5.
Brown is the featured pass-catcher in the Eagles offense, but Smith has far better postseason numbers. Smith has had at least 60 receiving yards in four of five playoff appearances and has two straight 100+ yard games in the postseason.
Brown was held to 22 and 28 yards in the two games prior to the Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. He had 96 yards and a score in that game, but Brown has not had a 100-yard receiving game in an Eagles postseason contest yet.
Brown and Smith are two of five players listed at lower than +200 to score a touchdown on Saturday. Only Jacobs has odds lower than +200 to score for Green Bay.
Sure, some of that has to do with the Packers being the underdog, but they also spread the around more and there’s some questions about who is the deep play/end zone threat with Christian Watson out injured.
If you are playing any Packers prop, I’d look into Tucker Kraft at over/under 36.5 receiving yards and +250 to score a touchdown. He’s been Jordan Love’s most consistent target amid all the wide receiver questions.
And there’s the main event, the prop that everyone will look into, Saquon Barkley at over/under 103.5 rushing yards. That’s an obnoxiously high number for a playoff game, but if the Eagles commit to running the ball and Hurts is hesitant to run, the over will be in play if Saquon breaks one or two big gains.
Barkley ran for 53 and 61 yards in his two career playoff games, but it’s also worth noting he only had nine carries in each appearance.
I would be more willing to bet Barkley at -175 to score a touchdown because the Eagles should get a few red-zone looks, but it can be hard for even the best backs to hit the century mark in a playoff game.
DraftKings is offering a No Sweat bet for all of Wild Card weekend. DK has also the “King of the End Zone” promotion where if you pick the player who scores the longest touchdown on a single day, in this case Sunday, you win the share of $2 million in bonus bets.
FanDuel is offering a No Sweat Same Game Parlay for every day of wild-card weekend. I would go with Brown and Smith to each have 60+ receiving yards, Barkley to score a TD and Kraft to have 25+ receiving yards to get you to +460.