The three non-Eagles divisional round games have a lot of potential from a player prop perspective.

All of the six teams in those three games have clear game plans as to how they want to approach games, which makes it easier to target these props.

Sure, there will  be the occasional unexpected star, but the trends show us that’s mostly easiest to trust the big players in the big games.

 

Texans at Chiefs

Houston’s goal on offense is quite simple: Get the ball to Joe Mixon and Nico Collins.


Collins had 122 yards on seven catches in the wild card win over the Chargers, while Mixon had 25 carries for 106 yards and a score.

C.J. Stroud tried to get the supporting cast involved, but no other pass-catcher had more than 34 yards.

Stroud followed a similar pattern back in December against the Chiefs, when he force fed Tank Dell (now injured) and Collins, while Mixon had 14 carries for 57 yards.

Collins’ props are rightfully set at over/under 6.5 receptions and over/under 83.5 receiving yards. Mixon’s rushing yard prop is over/under 58.5, a more palatable number for the matchup with the Chiefs, who have allowed more than 100 rushing yards seven times this season.

The Chiefs almost have too many good options to choose from. Xavier Worthy has been Patrick Mahomes’ top target lately,  but Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins still exist.

Kelce has a 13-game streak of at least 70 receiving yards in the postseason. That means he has highest receiving yard prop of 52.5 on the Chiefs roster, but that seems like a steal given the heavy reliance on him in the playoffs.

Hopkins is fascinating because he’s facing his former team in the postseason. He’s supposed to be the veteran guy Mahomes leans on in tough spots, but the Chiefs haven’t faced many of those situations yet. I would look into buying low on Hopkins at over/under 29.5 receiving yards. He’s had at least 29 yards in nine of his 10 games with the Chiefs.

 

Commanders at Lions

Here’s my word of caution with Commanders/Lions –

Everyone is going to try and convince you it’s a surefire high-scoring game, and while it might be, just remember what Detroit’s defense did in Week 18 against Minnesota.

The wrinkle from a player prop perspective here is David Montgomery’s return from injury. How effective he’ll actually be remains to be seen, but you could argue Jahmyr Gibbs is the better back anyway.

Gibbs’ rushing-yard prop of over/under 83.5 is by far the largest in the game. Montgomery is set at O/U 46.5.

Washington allowed 77 rushing yards to Bucky Irving in the wild-card round and let Mike Evans pick up seven receptions on seven targets for 92 yards.

That should be good news for anyone who backs Gibbs or Amon-Ra St. Brown. Jared Goff will get other players involved, but even if he does, St. Brown is the primary target. He had 77 or more receiving yards in every playoff game last season.

Jayden Daniels will try to target Terry McLaurin a ton on Saturday night, but if the Lions get pressure on him, Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler will be used in the checkdown game. Both players had four targets against Tampa Bay and have lower receiving yard props in play. Ertz is at 28.5, while Ekeler sits at 23.5.

 

Ravens at Bills

Ravens/Bills is the crown jewel of the weekend.

Lamar Jackson. Josh Allen. Derrick Henry. James Cook.

I’d be stunned if all four players aren’t heavily involved in the ground game.

Henry had 199 yards on 24 carries against the Bills early in the regular season. Jackson also contributed 54 rushing yards in that victory. Allen and Cook were held to a combined 60 yards on the ground.

The question here is does Buffalo try to pound the rock against a Baltimore rushing defense that allowed 29 rushing yards last week, or does Allen open it up through the air?

If the latter occurs, I’d strongly look into Khalil Shakir props. He is Buffalo’s go-to guy. Shakir had six receptions for 61 yards last week. His props are set at O/U 4.5 receptions and 51.5 receiving yards.

After that, it’s kind of a crapshoot for the Bills. Five other players had at least two receptions against the Broncos.

Baltimore’s passing attack is still without Zay Flowers, who missed practice on Thursday, so a lot of us are expecting he doesn’t play.

If that’s the case, Rashod Bateman is the Baltimore wide out to target on the prop market. Mark Andrews will also be a heavy target. He had three games with 50+ yards in December and January and closed the regular season on a five-game scoring streak. He’s the non-Henry Ravens player to bet to score a touchdown.

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