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Villanova vs. Winthrop Pick: March Madness Prediction and Analysis

By Crossing Broad Staff

Published: Mar 17th, 2021 · 12:26 PM EDT

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Following two straight losses, the South Region No. 5 seed Villanova Wildcats will look to bounce back against No. 12 Winthrop on Friday night. Villanova limps into the tournament aiming to find its identity without star guard Collin Gillespie.

Let’s take a closer look at this matchup with our Villanova vs. Winthrop betting pick that includes odds, analysis and an ATS prediction.

Villanova vs. Winthrop Betting Pick

Undoubtedly, Villanova is one of the nation’s elite programs, but this is a tricky spot for the dinged up Wildcats. Winthrop, winners of seven straight games, bounces in as Big South regular season and tournament champions, losing just one game all year long.

Click here to get crazy 64-1 March Madness odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Nova dropped both games following Gillespie’s injury, though both were narrow defeats. They fell to Providence, the sixth-best team in the Big East, and then to eventual conference tournament champ Georgetown.

Villanova vs. Winthrop Odds

Here are the current Villanova vs. Winthrop odds at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Winthrop	+6 (-110)	+215	O 143.5 (-110)
Villanova	-6 (-110)	-265	U 143.5 (-110)

This line may seem low to some, as just a few short weeks ago, Villanova was on track for a No. 1 or No 2 seed, but their two losses in two games since Gillespie went down, coupled with a one-loss opponent, makes this number more than fair.

The total has shot up since the open, as bettors are presumably buying into the validity of a high-scoring Winthrop team keeping this game at breakneck speed in hopes of wearing down a thin Wildcats group that has played over the total in 8 of their last 10 games on a neutral court.

Why Villanova Can Cover The Spread

Villanova, with their National Championships in 2016 and 2016, has plenty of public backing. Those considering wagering on the Wildcats should know that despite Gillespie’s MCL injury, all hope is not lost.

Villanova still has the superior talent in this matchup, including another Big East co-POY, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. They also have one of the game’s best coaches in Jay Wright.

Following their second straight loss, the Wildcats have now had seven days off (compared to two and four between games after the Gillespie injury) to cook up a game plan that suits their available personnel.

The Wildcats went 8-3 ATS in games played this season against teams with .500 records or better and went a stellar 4-1 ATS as favorites of 5-7 points. For years now, Nova has been a team you can trust with your money in the NCAA Tournament, as they have covered 13 of their last 16 games during March Madness, including seven straight as a favorite.

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Why Winthrop Can Cover the Spread

If you like one-loss teams getting more than a handful of points, then Winthrop may be the team for you.

The Eagles could be primed to pull off both the cover and upset here, as they will keep the pace and pressure high on a Villanova team that may lack the immediate chemistry it had with its full roster intact.

If Nova has to significantly use Robinson-Earl on the Eagles D.J. Burns, who went 11-12 from the field in the Big South Tourney Finals, it could diminish Robinson-Earl’s much-needed effectiveness on the offensive end.

Winthrop boats 10 covers in its last 11 games as an underdog, including all three occasions this season. The Eagles have also posted 13 covers in their last 16 games against teams with better than .600 win percentages.

At the end of the day, how can you not love a team that has not lost a single one of its 12 games away from home this season and have no losses by more than the number they are being spotted here?

Villanova vs. Winthrop Betting Prediction

Some believe that, despite the late season loss of the heart and soul of the team in Gillespie, that Villanova has enough athletic talent to simply take what they want in this one.

However, Winthrop did not go 20-1 by accident.  They took down solid clubs like Furman at home, UNC-Greensboro on the road and Radford twice on the road to go with their 16 other wins.

Nova struggled all season in field goal % defense (244th in the nation) and 3-point field goal % defense (267th in the nation). The Wildcats could have problems here with an Eagles offense that will play fast and look to confuse some new Wildcat personnel groupings via a pick and roll offense catered to their star, the nation’s triple double leader, Chandler Vaudrin.

That uptempo Eagles offense averages over 79 points per game on the season, which is a Top 35 output. Notably, they have topped 80 points in 65% of their games. Meanwhile, Nova covered this number just twice in eight games when allowing 70+ this season.

Villanova vs. Winthrop ATS Pick: Winthrop +6

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