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NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Predictions: Tuesday Betting Picks

By Crossing Broad Staff

Published: Mar 30th, 2021 · 9:06 AM EDT

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Order restored itself a bit last night as Houston and Baylor, both heavily favored, advanced to the Final Four this coming Saturday. Will tonight bring more of the same as heavy favorites Gonzaga and Michigan look to also secure spots, or will chaos return with upsets by UCLA and/or USC?

Let’s break down both of Tuesday night’s NCAA Tournament matchups with our Elite Eight predictions and betting picks.

No. 1 seed Gonzaga (-8.5) vs. No. 6 seed USC

Twenty-nine wins. Zero losses. Not one single digit spread since December 26, 2020, a span of 22 games. Arguably the best college team assembled this century, or longer.

This is Gonzaga, an absolute buzzsaw of a team that won 28 of their 29 games this season by more than tonight’s spread. So, how in the world can one summon the intestinal fortitude to play against this team in one of the season’s most important games — one with a spread of less than 10 points?

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For starters, USC is the perfect opponent if you’re ever looking to tempt fate and play against the Zags. The Trojans are one of the only teams in the country that can match up with Gonzaga, boasting the nation’s second biggest lineup behind Florida State.

The Trojans go 6’2”, 6’7”, 6’8”, 6’10”, 7’0” in the starting lineup and can bring more size off the bench.

Against a Bulldogs group that goes 6’4”, 6’5”, 6’5”, 6’7”, and 6’10”, USC might actually have a chance to control the paint and force the Bulldogs outside. When you’re playing a team like Gonzaga that leads the nation in field goal percentage at 55.3%, forcing jumpers is a good starting point.

Mark Few’s squad will try to balance the scales by keeping the tempo up. After all, Gonzaga also lead the nation in scoring at 92.9 points per game and are a Top 20 team in pace of play.

That will be easier said than does, as a prevalent storyline throughout this tournament has been plodding PAC-12 teams slowing the pace and shrinking games.

USC ranks in the 200s in pace of play and in their three NCAA Tournament games that pace has dipped down to 300th.

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Gonzaga may be the nation’s most efficient offense, but the Trojans boast the fourth-most efficient defense and offer as dangerous a matchup as the Bulldogs have faced perhaps all season.

Naturally, Gonzaga is a different animal than most opponents, but this still marks the first time that USC has been an underdog of four or more all season. They are KenPom’s 6th-ranked overall team and only lost one game all season by more than 10 points.

Gonzaga’s biggest strengths are its ability to play fast for high percentage shots and dominate the boards. USC might be able to strip that away a bit with its half-court offense. Moreover, the Trojans are also in the nation’s Top 20 in rebounding percentage which might help neutralize Gonzaga’s 10th-ranked rebounding group.

For as good as Gonzaga has been, the Bulldogs’ Kryptonite may be playing on short rest. We saw them struggle mightily in the WAC Tournament for much of the game against BYU on no rest and they are just 3-5 ATS on the season on one day of rest.

It’s also worth pointing out that USC played just 3 of its 10 games on one day of rest over the total this season, holding opponents to just 63.3 points per game. That mark is the Trojans’ lowest average point total allowed on any day of rest this season.

USC also covered 6 of the 10 games on one day of rest, including a 5-2 ATS record when its opponent was on the same rest.

That’s a stark contrast to Gonzaga’s 2-4 ATS mark in the same spot.

Gonzaga vs. USC Betting Prediction

If you are ever going to take a poke against the formidable Zags, this is the spot to do it. Andy Enfield’s USC group is 10-0 ATS all-time in the NCAA Tournament for a reason. His teams have covered 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog and have beaten the number seven of their last nine tries in the Big Dance as a dog.

Much like our Oregon State pick last night, this probably won’t be pretty, but you have to trust the PAC-12 to produce in this tournament as they have throughout. Look for the Zags to win but slide to 5-12-2 ATS in night games this season.

Pick: USC +8.5

 

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No. 1 seed Michigan (-6.5) vs. No. 11 seed UCLA

Michigan has re-cemented itself as part of the national title conversation due to impressive displays against LSU and Florida State. Those recent showings seem to have washed away the comparatively poor run of form the Wolverines endured down the stretch of the regular season leading up to the NCAA Tournament.

But that doesn’t mean a bettor should ignore the elephant in the room simply because it was quiet for a few minutes.

After all, Michigan did lose three of five games prior to the tournament. Each loss came as a favorite between 5 and 8.5 points, which is exactly where it finds itself tonight.

In fact, Michigan, which was a tremendous cover team all season long at 19-8 ATS overall and 18-6 ATS as a favorite, was quietly mediocre when laying 5-7 points, like they are here against UCLA. The Wolverines are just 3-3 ATS this season in that role, which could mean a close one against a Bruins team that is 5-3 ATS on the year as underdogs.

Despite a 27-game season thus far, Michigan has only played three times on a single day of rest. UCLA, by comparison, with the way the PAC-12 conference schedule was structured, has done so on 11 occasions, winning nine of those games outright, including a 6-1 SU record when its opponent was on the same rest.

The Bruins have only been underdogs eight other times this season, but six of those instances in their last eight games. UCLA won the last three of those games outright and covered the last four, both ATS and against tonight’s number.

Since their opening game, the Bruins have lost just once by double digits, meaning they know how to stay in games…but, how?

Mick Cronin’s team epitomizes the lumbering PAC-12 that has had so much success in this tournament.

They were the third-slowest pace of play team in the conference, ranking 284th in the country. If you’ve watched them play, you understand why. Once they gain possession, they are as deliberate as it gets offensively, putting the ball in Tyger Campbell’s hands and running the shot clock down until they find a good look. This was shockingly evident in their last game against Alabama, where the Bruins continued to employ this tactic even after blowing a big lead and trailing the Tide late in the game.

This Bruins group is obviously willing to shrink the game, which helps a UCLA bettor’s chances of covering as a sizable dog.

But, the turtle approach is even more pronounced than that possessions per game stat makes it seem. UCLA has now played six overtime games this season, meaning an extra 30 minutes worth of possessions working against that stat. While you might be worried about what effects of an overtime game the other night might have on the Bruins, perhaps you shouldn’t.

UCLA was 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season after an overtime game, winning three of those outright as underdogs.

And while Jaime Jaquez and Jules Bernard played a ton of minutes in the Bruins’ latest win, Campbell and Johnny Juzang (who fouled out in regulation) both barely cracked 30 minutes. With the slow pace they employ, the effects of a bunch of minutes are minimized a bit anyway.

UCLA’s strength offensively is in its ability to make threes at a high rate (No. 41 team in the nation). This is the area where Michigan defense struggled. The Wolverines have the No. 8 field goal percentage defense in the country, but are just No. 117 at defending the three.

UCLA vs. Michigan Betting Prediction

Pick: UCLA +6.5

One still has to expect Michigan to feel the effects of Isaiah Livers’ absence at some point in this tournament. Playing against a UCLA team that has covered four of its last five games as an underdog in this tournament is as good of a place as any for that to happen. Michigan has only beaten UCLA by more than 3 points once in their 6 meetings since ‘06. Expect more of the same here in another close one that goes right down to the wire.