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Sixers vs. Bulls Odds, Prediction, Picks (May 3, 2021)

By Crossing Broad Staff

Published: May 3rd, 2021 · 11:49 AM EDT

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A general malaise on the defensive end in the second half cost the Sixers a regulation win after being up as many as 17 points in the first half against the Spurs last night. Philadelphia began the all-too-frequent habit of letting ball handlers drive the length of the court uncontested, leading to countless easy baskets for a shorthanded Spurs team. San Antonio was only able to field a skeleton crew due to injuries, yet still managed to come back and take the game to overtime. Philly escaped with a last second Ben Simmons tip-in, but we have to wonder how the extra stanza will affect the team’s performance and player availability tonight on no rest at the Bulls.

Let’s take a closer look at the top Sixers vs. Bulls game picks and make some predictions for this May 3, 2021 matchup.

Sixers vs. Bulls Pick (May 3, 2021)

By virtue of Brooklyn’s loss yesterday and Philly’s OT win, the Sixers now hold a 1/2 game lead atop the Eastern Conference. That lead is essentially a full game, though, as the Sixers also have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Nets.

Philly plays just one team with a winning record the rest of the way, while Brooklyn has to face four more opponents currently in a play-in spot or better. However, the Sixers cannot afford to just give games like tonight away and potentially risk leaving their No. 1 seed in the Nets’ hands instead of their own.

For Chicago, the competitive portion of the season is essentially over. They are three games out of the final play-in spot and are without their best player, as Zach LaVine remains sidelined. One can only guess their motivation in this one. Are they in tank mode or will they get up for this one at home with two days off coming up?

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Sixers vs. Bulls Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Bulls at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team	Run Line	Moneyline	Total
Hawks	+7 (-108)	+240	O 215.5 (-112)
Sixers	-7 (-113)	-295	U 215.5 (-109)

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”76ers” size=”300×250″ site_id=”crossingbroad”]

 

Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

We emphasize this a lot, but in today’s NBA, defense seems to only be selectively played in key moments, stretches, or games. Solid defensive effort is mostly a choice, but it is one not often made, which is why 20+ point comebacks are an everyday occurrence anymore. However, I have to believe that Doc Rivers will make it known the reason his guys had to play five extra minutes to beat the Spurs’ JV team last night was directly due to a lack of defensive focus throughout much of the second half.

You would hope that a near loss would be enough of a wake up call for the Sixers to bring their best defensive effort tonight, rest or no rest. And, when they do choose to defend, they are arguably the league’ most elite group at that end of the court. On top of having a couple All-NBA Defensive Team caliber players in the starting lineup, Philly has a defensively talented bench that should be hungry tonight after logging less minutes than normal lately. They are capable of containing almost any offense in the league when they bear down, and the Bulls are hardly offensively elite at this point.

Chicago has the tenth-worst scoring offense in the NBA at just 110.9 points per game and has averaged just 100 points per game in their last five, failing to top 100 points in any of their last three games. They have failed to top this prop bet total in five of their last eight games and 18 of their 64 overall (28.1%).

As mentioned, the Bulls will be without LaVine’s 27 points per game tonight and could also be missing midseason acquisition Nikola Vucevic. With no other player on their roster averaging over 15 points per game, it’s difficult to imagine the remaining group finding their way to 100 points in a game the Sixers would happily shrink due to their lack of rest.

Chicago’s already middle-of-the-pack pace of play has dipped to just 98.3 possessions per game in their last three outings, a number lower than any team in the league’s pace of play on the season. The Bulls were held to 105 points in each of their two meetings with the Sixers this season, both with LaVine in the lineup. Since that last head-to-head meeting on March 11, Philly has held 14 of their last 27 opponents to less than 104 points, good enough to win this prop bet.

With this Bulls group suiting up tonight being far from the top half of the opponents the Sixers have faced in that stretch, it should be reasonable to ask Philly to hold Chicago to less than 104 in this spot.

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Chicago Bulls +8.5 AND Under 212.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook +210)

The Bulls are sending out a less than optimal lineup tonight, to be sure. However, San Antonio nearly beat a rested Sixers team last night with an even less talented lineup than Chicago can offer here. Now Philly will has to overcome no rest and travel after an overtime game. That’s a tough spot to get a win, let alone cover this large number.

The Sixers starters combined to play roughly 175 minutes in last night’s OT game. The team has covered just four of its last 18 games after the starters logged more than 160 minutes the night before. This probably helps explain, at least in part, the fact that the 76ers have only covered three of their last 11 games on no rest.

Philly has also covered just three of its last 11 games after a straight up win. We are getting even more points than any spread you are going to find out there via this prop. Despite a stellar history against the Bulls, the Sixers do often play down to bad teams when on the road. Philly has covered just three of its last 14 tries as the visitors against a team with a sub .400 win percentage.

Despite playing with a diminished squad, the Bulls have still managed to cover four of their last five against teams with above .600 win percentages. We mentioned above that we believe the Bulls will struggle to reach 100 points here, but we also think they can slow down a tired Sixers lineup that could have some minutes restrictions. We have watched Philly’s offense struggle in the second leg of back-to-back games this season, averaging just 107.7 points per game in 11 previous tries, six full points below their season average.

With two top 10 three-point field goal percentage defenses squaring off, look for most of the points to come from inside the arc tonight, helping to keep this total low and preventing the Sixers from ever pulling away for good.

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Sixers vs. Bulls Prediction

We had the under drilled last night until overtime ripped our hearts out, as is apt to happen from time to time. However, we are going to be brave and come right back with another one tonight. With the Bulls’ inability to crack 100 lately and the Sixers traveling on no rest after a 53-minute game, but needing the game, we think defense will trump offense tonight.

In tonight’s home/away roles, these two teams have combined to play 38 of 63 games under the total (60.3%).

Trends to Know

The Sixers have played just four of their 11 games over the total this season as favorites of 5-7 points. Moreover, 11 of the 76ers’ last 14 away games stayed under the posted total, including 10 of their last 11 as road favorites. Philadelphia has also played 11 of its last 15 under after a win, as well as 10 of their last 12 under after an ATS loss.

Chicago has played 10 of their last 12 home games under, including four of their last five as a home dog. The Bulls, whose last game saw them lose 108-97 to the Hawks as eight point underdogs, have played four of their last five under following both a straight up loss and an ATS loss. In fact, they have also played seven of their 10 ten games under after a double digit loss, as well.

The Sixers know they have to win every game possible right now as the East’s No. 1 seed would give them home court throughout the Eastern Conference Playoffs, as well as allow them to completely avoid at least one of Brooklyn or Milwaukee until deep in the playoffs.

However, they also know the health of their starters is paramount, so I’d expect some crafty gameplanning and minutes management by Rivers tonight.

ATS Pick

Longer possessions and a slower-paced game than normal for a Sixers team that is Top-10 in in pace of play wouldn’t surprise us, as winning by the path of least resistance and with the least risk may be in order. With Houston on deck, it’s almost like three days off after tonight anyway. I think the bench plays a key role tonight in locking down a weakened Bulls side. The Bulls fail to reach 100 points and the Sixers don’t top 110.

Our Pick: Phi/Chi Under 212 (DraftKings Sportsbook -109)

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