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Betting Lines Power Ranking Model has Eagles as NFC’s Top Team
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Each summer, we look to our sister site Sports Betting Dime for data models that help us dive into Eagles season predictions.
SBD uses a couple of different formulas to determine strength of schedule, win probability, and against-the-spread power ranking, which right now has the Birds listed as the NFL’s third-best team. As a simple exercise, SBD takes the 2023 opening lines and calculates the sum of spreads over the course of 17 games, which amounts to a 56 point total for the Eagles:
In simple terms, if you add up all of the spreads over 17 games, the Birds come out as a -56 favorite across the board.
Notably, when looking through past seasons with this model:
- A team from the top four in ATS +/- has won the Super Bowl in four of the last eight seasons
- A team from the top eight has won the Super Bowl each of the last five seasons
- A team from the top four in ATS +/- has made the Super Bowl in six of the last eight seasons – the last two years were the two times this trend has failed
So the Birds are sitting in a good spot, based on recent trends. For some context, they went into last season with a -28 ATS number and made the Super Bowl, while Kansas City was a -53 and won it all.
Furthermore, author Matt McEwan writes:
“It’s worth noting last year’s top-ranked team (Buffalo) had an ATS +/- of -85, which is pretty comparable to the Chiefs this year. However, the previous two years saw the #1 team in our NFL power rankings listed at -115 and -106, respectively. Even in 2017, 2018, and 2019, when we only had spreads for 15 games —only a 16-game schedule in these seasons and sportsbooks did not release lines for Week 17—we saw better ATS +/- numbers than this season.
…
The takeaway from this is more parity to be expected this season. The league does not possess any team who stands so far above the rest.”
Should be a fun season. Go Birds.
Click here for the full Power Rankings report.
Kevin has been writing about Philadelphia sports since 2009. He spent seven years in the CBS 3 sports department and started with the Union during the team's 2010 inaugural season. He went to the academic powerhouses of Boyertown High School and West Virginia University. email - k.kinkead@sportradar.com