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Phillies

As You Prepare for Game 5, Relax – the Phillies are Closer to Fine Than You Think

Anthony SanFilippo

By Anthony SanFilippo

Published:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The one thing that’s always great about baseball, is that no matter how good or how bad you are one day, you have a chance to completely flip the script a day later.

Here in Philadelphia we like to dwell on the negative. We choose to wrap ourselves in an insecurity blanket. It’s our default setting. We’ve convinced ourselves that preparing for impending doom and dread is a far more comfortable than that horrible optimism thing.

But it’s in these moments, when all else is going haywire, that someone shines a light on the right path out of the maze.

So, I thought I’d give it a try.

After a phone call with my oldest son after the game, where he vented for a good 45 minutes about everything the Phillies did wrong in Game 4 – and man was there a lot they did wrong – I decided that sitting down in front of my computer to write something about the Phillies needed a different take, a different feel.

So I decided to write it through song.

OK, weird, I know. How can anyone think of music at a time like this? And frankly, I’m readily aware that once I tell you that I’m going to use a 34-year-old folk song to tell this story today, that I’m not only showing my age, but likely am going to get laughed at by the more younger baseball cognoscenti who choose to come to Crossing Broad for our analysis.

I can assure you that this song would never be a candidate for a Garrett Stubbs playlist (although some future potential remix could have it be considered a banger), nor would it be a YouTube video embed at the end of a Kevin Kinkead post here on CB, as those are usually reserved for some sort of death metal anthem that makes you want to rip your hair right out of your head.

As for Kyle Pagan, he won’t even know this song has existed in the world for the last 34 years.

So yeah, I’m prepared for the ridicule, too.

But after the phone call with Ant Jr., one that, if he weren’t my son, I’d be well within my right to charge for the therapy session, it was a song that popped in my head. And when it did, and I thought of the lyrics and how they applied to the Phillies in Game 4 and more importantly, moving forward over the next 3-4 days as we consider where they are for Games 5 and 6 and possibly (gulp!) Game 7, it all made sense.

The Phillies are still winning this thing.

How so? Well, let’s start from the top shall we?

YouTube video

I’m trying to tell you something ’bout my lifeMaybe give me insight between black and whiteAnd the best thing you ever done for meIs to help me take my life less seriouslyIt’s only life after all.

When looking at how this NLCS has suddenly gone sideways for the Phillies, you have to start with the decisions made by manager Rob Thomson.

Did he pull Ranger Suarez too early in game 3?

Should he have gone to Orion Kerkering in a one-run game in Game 3 and after that failed, should he have doubled down and gone to Kerkering again in Game 4?

Did he pull Cristopher Sanchez too quickly?

Did he go to Jeff Hoffman too early in Game 4?

Did he leave Craig Kimbrel in too long in Game 3 and if so, why go back to him in Game 4? And once there, why did he leave him in to blow the game?


These are all decisions that impacted the Phillies in the last two games and will have some more impact tonight in Game 5, and while everyone is dwelling on them, and giving themselves angina in the process, Thomson has already moved on. There is a plan in place for Game 5 and he’s going to follow it.


What should be crystal clear here is this: What happened in Games 3 and 4 were the plan all along – with one exception – they were hoping to not have to use Jose Alvarado in Game 4. Thomson admitted as much after the game.

Every other move, they had mapped out as part of what they were willing to do to try and win Game 4.

Sanchez was always going to have a short leash. Was it shortened by the fact that he had no feel for his change up, which is his best pitch? Probably. But, Hoffman came back out and pitched another inning, which got the plan back on track. If the Phillies wanted to avoid Alvarado, they could have gone with Strahm for a second inning, which would have pushed everyone back further, but then he would likely have been unavailable in Game 5.

As it stands, the Phillies can use Strahm, Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto again, for sure. They obviously don’t trust either Michael Lorenzen or Taijuan Walker at this point except for something extremely low leverage and for multiple innings, so the bullpen is shorter than it could be. Would they go three days in a row with Hoffman, Alvarado, Kimbrel, or Kerkering? Probably not, unless it’s in a pinch. Alvarado told reporters he wants to be used, if needed. Knowing Hoffman, he’s probably the same. Kerkering and Kimbrel are probably going to be skipped.

Could we see Ranger Suarez for an inning, especially after not going deep in Game 3? Possibly.

The Phillies have options. Not a bevy of them, but they have options.

And the one thing they have that no one else has is the best pitcher remaining in the playoffs starting Game 5 in Zack Wheeler.


So, like the song says, there’s your insight between black and white. Don’t sweat it.

Well, darkness has a hunger that’s insatiableAnd lightness has a call that’s hard to hearAnd I wrap my fear around me like a blanketI sailed my ship of safety till I sank itI’m crawling on your shores

It’s hard not to feel this way when you consider the other foibles from Game 4:

  • Trea Turner being picked off and caught stealing for the first time all season in the first inning, a harbinger of things to come.
  • Alec Bohm’s throwing error that led to an unearned run in the second.
  • Sanchez forgetting how many outs there were in the second,
  • J.T. Realmuto simply missing a pitch because he was too worried about framing it.
  • The walks. All five of them. Brutal.
  • Nick Castellanos flailing at pitches out of the strike zone, partying like it’s 2022.
  • Sanchez throwing a wild pitch.
  • Bohm trying to advance to second after the wild throw home on his chopper. If he stays at first, it’s still no outs and runners on the corners. The Phillies can still add on here.
  • In that same inning, Realmuto fails to make contact with less than two outs and a runner at third. Killer.
  • Bohm also runs into the third out of the inning on a chopper to third. Does Diamondbacks third baseman Emmanuel Rivera get Castellanos at first if Bohm doesn’t run? Probably, but it wasn’t a guaranteed yes coming off the high hop grounder. Force him to make the play, don’t just run into the out.
  • Kimbrel hitting Corbin Carroll. It’s amazing he was still in this game.

It’s all those things that have everyone feeling down. Feeling like the rug is being pulled out from beneath them.

Despite all that, the Diamondbacks only won by one run.

I’m not saying that’s OK. It’s not. But it’s not like Arizona has beaten the Phillies in these two games. The Phillies have beaten themselves. They’ve handed the Snakes two victories. Is there anything through four games against this team that you look at and it scares you? Does Arizona have the same it factor as say, Houston? Or even the Phillies?

They don’t. And while the Phillies have used up almost their entire margin for error in Arizona, they are still the better team all the way around. They have to win two out of three games and are throwing pitchers who Arizona couldn’t touch earlier this week.

And I went to the doctor, I went to the mountainsI looked to the children, I drank from the fountainsThere’s more than one answer to these questionsPointing me in a crooked lineAnd the less I seek my source for some definitive(The less I seek my source)Closer I am to fine, yeahCloser I am to fine, yeah

This is certainly not the path anyone expected to take in the NLCS – especially not after obliterating Arizona 10-0 in Game 2 to take a 2-0 lead.

But not every path is linear.

Keep in mind that for all the Phillies mistakes and all the spunkiness of the upstart Diamondbacks, that teams up 2-0 in a series are still 75-14 all-time. It’s not easy to win 4-of-5 in a playoff series after being down 0-2. Especially when you are such a heavy underdog.

It’s going to be even harder for Arizona once the Phillies get their stuff together, which is what you can expect they are spending much of Saturday doing.

Also keep in mind, this series is now guaranteed to come back to Philadelphia, where in the postseason the Phillies are 6-0. Every other home team in MLB this season is 8-18.

You have Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Suarez throwing games for you. You have a lineup that other than one game has continued to hit and produce. You may not feel this way right now, but the Phillies are still REALLY close to returning to the World Series.

(Which, by the way, there’s some good mojo for the Phillies on this particular date):

1980:


2009:

YouTube video

2010:

https://youtu.be/bRiG3Mwmr4E?si=6PeuUEyomUs2caJb

2022:

YouTube video

So, Oct. 21 has some serious historical mojo for the Phillies.

All past is prologue nostalgia aside, are they being tested? Sure. It’s the playoffs. These things happen. Championship-caliber teams face adversity and overcome it. Which reminds me:

And I went to see the doctor of philosophyWith a poster of Rasputin and a beard down to his kneeHe never did marry or see a B-grade movieHe graded my performance, he said he could see through meI spent four years prostrate to the higher mindGot my paper and I was free

I decided to look back at the last collection of championship teams to see what I could glean to help Phillies fans today.

Step into my office. It may not have Rasputin on the wall, but will Brandon Marsh suffice?


By the way, you know the story of Grigori Rasputin, right? He was a mystic and faith healer who influentially served the last emperor of Russia. There were many attempts to assassinate him and he survived almost all of them.

Until he was shot in the head at close range. But, hey… everything up to that point was pretty remarkable that he was able to still stay upright.

That’s the thing. Championship teams find a way. Consider:

  • 2022 – Houston trailed the Phillies 2-1 in the World Series with two more games at Citizens Bank Park, where the Phillies were seemingly unbeatable. They responded by tossing a combined no-hitter in Game 4, stole Game 5 with great defense and then won the championship in Game 6. Adversity, slayed.
  • 2021 – Atlanta dropped the first game of a Best-of-5 series to Milwaukee and were staring down the barrel of facing one of the Brewers best pitchers in Game 2. They tossed two straight shutouts and then, in Game 4 and not wanting to go back to Milwaukee, they overcame a two-run deficit and won it on a homer by Freddie Freeman off Josh Hader – lefty on lefty. Adversity dismissed.
  • 2020 – This season shouldn’t count but… the Dodgers lost the first two games of the NLCS – at home – to Atlanta, and were down 3-1 in the series before dominating Game 5 in Atlanta and then winning a pair of squeakers at home to advance to the World Series, where they won in six games. Adversity shrugged aside.
  • 2019 – Speaking of being baseball’s Rasputin, the Washington Nationals needed a three-run, eighth inning rally in the wild card game (just a single game back then) to defeat the Milwaukee Brewers. In the NLDS, they were down 2-1 to Los Angeles, and rallied to win in five, taking Game 5 in extra innings at Dodger Stadium. Then, in the World Series, they won the first two games, before getting clobbered in three straight games at home by Houston, only to rebound and win the last two on the road to clinch the title. Adversity crushed.
  • 2016 – I skipped 2017 and 2018 because that’s when all the cheating was going on with the Astros and Red Sox, so it wasn’t worth reliving. But, in 2016, the Cubs trailed Cleveland in the World Series 3-1 before winning three straight, including Game 7 in extra innings after blowing the lead in the ninth, to take home their first title in 108 years. Talk about pressure! Adversity eviscerated.

The point is, you can look back at every season, and in a majority of them, the team that ultimately takes home the title faces adversity in the postseason and overcomes it. It’s part of the DNA of playoff baseball. This is the Phillies first shot of adversity. If they are to be a champion, they will have to overcome it. And we already know all about the clubhouse culture. Is there really a doubt that they have the wherewithal to do it?

I stopped by the bar at 3 A.M.To seek solace in a bottle or possibly a friendAnd I woke up with a headache like my head against a boardTwice as cloudy as I’d been the night beforeAnd I went in seeking clarity

Yeah, we were all up late last night. I sat here staring at our wine rack which, has a bottle of whiskey, a bottle of bourbon and a botte of vodka on top of it staring at me. There are beers in the fridge. I thought about pouring out something for myself and sitting down to write this piece multiple times. I ultimately decided to wait til morning.

I thought about it though – til 3 A.M. No lie. I laid in bed making notes on my phone.

I noted that Kyle Schwarber is locked in and is the type of leader you want on a team facing adversity for the first time in a playoff season. I jotted down that we haven’t even seen the best of Bryce Harper yet in this series and that I don’t see this Arizona lineup having any type of success against Wheeler, Nola or Suarez.


Turner continues to get on base. Realmuto continues to hit the ball hard – when he makes contact. And although there’ve been a couple errors, the defense has been pretty darn good in this series.

But unlike the lyrics to the song, I didn’t wake up cloudier than the night before. I sought the clarity and found it.

The Phillies are far from cooked. They are the more talented team. They are the more focused team. They will deal with the adversity like many championship teams have before them.

Because, as the chorus says, they are “closer to fine.” You just have to allow yourself to believe it.

Anthony SanFilippo
Anthony SanFilippo

Anthony SanFilippo writes about the Phillies and Flyers for Crossing Broad and hosts a pair of related podcasts (Crossed Up and Snow the Goalie). A part of the Philadelphia sports media for a quarter century, Anthony also dabbles in acting, directing, teaching, and strategic marketing, which is why he has no time to do anything, but does it anyway. Follow him on Twitter @AntSanPhilly.

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