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ESPN’s “Football Power Index” has Eagles 7th and Cowboys 6th
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ESPN does a lot of stupid rankings based on some formula that their analytics dorks come up with. Recently, they used a model that ranked Bryce Harper 40th on a list of MLB postseason players, and now a few days after the Eagles beat the Cowboys, the “Football Power Index” has Dallas 6th and Philly 7th:
The formula does not seem to like the Eagles’ defense, hence the 7th spot. FPI is loosely described by ESPN as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season.” They do 10,000 simulations of “the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”
For what it’s worth, they’ve got the Birds listed as having played the 17th-hardest schedule so far, though the remaining SOS is 10th. It’s more of a predictive tool, and less of a power ranking, which they say here:
“Although team ratings provide fodder for debate, the ultimate goal of these projections is not to rate teams — it is to predict performance going forward.”
Fair enough, but it’s still goofy from an optics perspective to see the team with the NFL’s best record ranked 7th on this list, below a division rival it just beat three days ago. The FPI does have the Eagles finishing 13-4 and winning the NFC East, with a 37.6% chance of making the Super Bowl, so there’s that. The formula really likes the Ravens and Chiefs, so whatever. Just gotta go out and win and nothing else matters.
Here’s the full explanation of how they do this ranking.
Kevin has been writing about Philadelphia sports since 2009. He spent seven years in the CBS 3 sports department and started with the Union during the team's 2010 inaugural season. He went to the academic powerhouses of Boyertown High School and West Virginia University. email - k.kinkead@sportradar.com