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J.T. Realmuto to Undergo Knee Surgery as Phillies Begin Tough Road Trip

Anthony SanFilippo

By Anthony SanFilippo

Published:

Jun 4, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto (10) tags out Milwaukee Brewers third base Oliver Dunn (15) at the plate during the tenth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies are back on Tuesday night, technically starting a six-game road trip that will go through Boston and Baltimore, even though they’ve been away from home since last Wednesday night.

Everything seems weird schedule-wise with three off days in five and two games overseas, one that took place before most people woke up from a Saturday evening bender.

At any rate, it’s time to get back to living and dying with the best team in baseball (45-20) on a daily basis. And what better way to do that than to look at some various and interesting talking points in snackable fashion to get you back in the mode of daily baseball?

So, let’s start here. Sorry it’s one that is concerning:

J.T. Realmuto injured

This news broke Tuesday afternoon:

Realmuto has been playing with this injury for a while. A torn meniscus isn’t a terrible injury, but it’s tougher on catchers than anyone else, so this could keep him out for a little bit.

When the Phillies pinch ran for him in the ninth inning Sunday, that seemed precautionary at the time, but now we know it was much more than that.

The one thing the Phillies need to do is stay healthy. The timing of this isn’t great, but it’s OK with Trea Turner due back this week as they get one star player while another goes out.

Turner isn’t going to have a rehab assignment as he is with the team on the trip. Speculation is he’ll be back Friday in Baltimore, but it’s not crazy to wonder if it’s sooner in light of this news – as Realmuto was probably trying to hang on as long as he could to get back to when Turner could play again.

The difference is that Edmundo Sosa was a more than adequate fill-in for Turner while he was out of the lineup. Not sure that production was expected, but it was there, nonetheless.

What are the odds though of that happening again with whatever combination of Rafael Marchan and Garrett Stubbs the Phillies trot out there?

This one could actually hurt more, even if it’s for a shorter time, than the Turner injury.

Anyway, there’s still a lot to be positive about.

The record

This has become kind of a running tally on here with most of my posts, because you just don’t see this that often in baseball, and the longer it goes, the more indicative it is of success. The Phillies are only one of 40 teams in the World Series era (1903-present) to ever win 45 of their first 65 games. Only 25 teams have been better.

Of the other 38 teams (not including this year’s Yankees since their fate, like the Phillies’, is yet to be determined), here are where those teams ultimately finished:

  • 36 made the playoffs (95%)
  • 35 won their division title (92%)
  • 30 won their league pennant (79%)
  • 14 won the World Series (37%)

Now, it’s a lot harder these days, with expanded playoffs, to even get to the World Series, let alone win it, so let’s extrapolate out the teams that did this in the Wild Card era (1995-Present).

The Phillies are one of just 10 teams since 1995 to start 45-20. Again, not including the 2024 Yankees, here are the other eight and how they finished:

  • 1995 Cleveland Indians (45-20) – finished 100-44 (season shortened by a lockout at the beginning of the year). Lost in the World Series to the Atlanta Braves, 4-2.
  • 1997 Baltimore Orioles (45-20) – finished 98-64. Lost in the ALCS to the Cleveland Indians, 4-2.
  • 1998 New York Yankees (49-16) – finished 114-48. Won the World Series over the Atlanta Braves, 4-0.
  • 1998 Atlanta Braves (45-20) – finished 106-56. Lost in the World Series to the New York Yankees, 4-0.
  • 2001 Seattle Mariners (51-14) – finished 116-46. Lost in the ALCS to the New York Yankees, 4-1.
  • 2016 Chicago Cubs (45-20) – finished 103-58. Won the World Series over the Cleveland Indians, 4-3.
  • 2022 New York Yankees (49-16) – finished 99-63. Lost in the ALCS to the Houston Astros, 4-0.
  • 2023 Tampa Bay Rays (46-19) – finished 99-63 (didn’t win the division). Lost in the AL Wild Card Series to the Texas Rangers, 2-0.

The overall success rate is a lot lower. It’s a 25% championship rate (down 12%), It’s a 50% pennant rate (down 29%).

This is why Rob Thomson cautioned against comparisons to other teams who did this well a couple weeks ago, saying what matters is in October, not now. That’s not to poo-poo the start, it’s just to point out they know they can’t rest on their laurels about this comfortable lead (currently nine games over the Braves) that they’ve built. It’s all about staying healthy and being locked in for another five months.

Yet, it should be noted, that if given preseason odds of 50% to win the pennant and 25% to win the World Series, there’s not a living soul who wouldn’t have taken that. So, they’re in a realllly good spot right now.

An internal Cy Young race

It’s probably still a little bit early for this, so we’ll check it out further in about a month, but as of today, the ESPN Cy Young predictor has not one, not two, but three Phillies at the top of the leaderboard.

Their order currently is:

  1. Ranger Suarez
  2. Aaron Nola
  3. Zack Wheeler

Can you imagine if they were the three finalists for the award? That would be bonkers. But really, who else is even in the conversation?

The predictor has St. Louis closer Ryan Helsley a distant fourth. But voters aren’t going to reward the closer on a .500-ish, borderline playoff team with enough votes to be a finalist when there are starters who are carrying the load for a team with the best record in the sport.

The Dodgers are really good, and three Dodgers starters are on the list – Gavin Stone (5th), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (8th), and Tyler Glasnow (10th). All have been good, but none have been as good – or as consistent – as the Phillies trio.

Chicago’s Shota Imanaga has been very good this season, but he got lit up by the Milwaukee Brewers (who couldn’t touch Phillies pitching) and the Chicago White Sox, of all teams, in successive starts. He bounced back with a solid outing against Cincinnati on Sunday, but he’s looked more hittable of late, which is probably why he’s not on the Cy Young predictor list.

This could be a fun, friendly competition for the rest of the summer.

The crucified shutting down the noise – for now

Three guys who have been the target of a lot of fan ire on social media have been much better of late – even if a couple of them are in extremely small samples.

The one whose sample size is a bit larger is Nick Castellanos.

There’s no doubt that the first month of his season was terrible. Probably the worst of his career. And there was concern within the organization that he might be lost.

But to Castellanos’ credit, he’s rebounded. It’s been a gradual rebound and not a “go on a tear” type of rebound, but it has Castellanos and the Phillies feeling a bit better.

In his last 18 games, Castellanos is slashing .264/.303/.528 for an .830 OPS with five home runs. These aren’t All-Star numbers, but they are solid. In fact, since May 4th he ranks 51st in all of baseball in OPS among qualified hitters. that’s actually in the top 30%.

Forget the fact that he grounded into a game-ending double play that hasn’t happened since 1912 on Sunday, on the whole he’s been a lot better.

And frankly, if you wipe out his first, miserable month entirely, you get this line:

.248/.302/.475; .777 OPS; 8 HR, 21 RBI in 35 games

Again, not anything to stand up and applaud, but definitely acceptable, and it’s only climbing.

The other two guys who showed out overseas were Taijuan Walker and Whit Merrifield.

Walker gave his best pitching performance of the season Sunday, throwing 5 2/3 innings and allowing just two runs on two hits while striking out six and walking one. He shouldn’t have given up any runs, but Gregory Soto lit the sixth inning on fire and couldn’t get one out, which cost Walker a couple of runs.

Point is, it was a heck of a start, with an uptick in velocity and sharp movement on his breaking balls. It’s one the Phillies hope he can replicate Saturday in Baltimore and build more confidence.

As for Merrifield….

That one long ball is not going to erase an otherwise moribund season for the veteran, but credit him for saying that the hit was a weight off his shoulders after it felt like he “left the entire Premier League on base.” (Way to play to the British media).

He also had a hit Sunday, so maybe he’s starting to get out of the funk a little bit. It’s certainly not enough, that’s for sure, but for one weekend, he silenced the critics and has a chance to keep that going moving forward.

A few more notes

Here’s just a few items that I’ve been paying attention to. Maybe to keep an eye on this week and beyond:

  • Tuesday night’s game could be a challenge. No Realmuto is one thing, but add in the travel back from London, and the fact that Zack Wheeler doesn’t do as well pitching with extra rest as he does with normal rest, and this could get hairy. We’ll see.
  • Instead of June Schwarber, so far we’ve gotten June Schwoon. In seven games this month he’s hitting .179 with no extra base hits. His OPS is just .460. He was really good in May, so this could just be an ebb coming off a flow, but worth watching.
  • Alec Bohm has been mediocre for a while. In his last 15 games he’s 10-for-59 (.170; .493 OPS) with just five RBIs. He needs to get out of that soon.
  • What are the Phillies going to do with Spencer Turnbull? He last pitched on June 1st and was dominant. Striking out six batters in a perfect three innings of relief. He really doesn’t have a role right now, and that’s unfortunate, because he’s been very good almost every time his number’s been called.
  • Soto needs to be put on the same plan that Seranthony Dominguez was put on at the end of April. Only pitches in low leverage situations until he gets right. He’s got the stuff, but it’s getting rocked by hitters. He needs a bit of a reset. No, he shouldn’t be DFA’d, but he can’t be trusted in big spots right now. Build back his confidence, if possible, over the next month and then reassess.
Anthony SanFilippo
Anthony SanFilippo

Anthony SanFilippo writes about the Phillies and Flyers for Crossing Broad and hosts a pair of related podcasts (Crossed Up and Snow the Goalie). A part of the Philadelphia sports media for a quarter century, Anthony also dabbles in acting, directing, teaching, and strategic marketing, which is why he has no time to do anything, but does it anyway. Follow him on Twitter @AntSanPhilly.

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