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How to Bet Mick Abel’s Second Phillies Start
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Mick Abel’s second Major League Baseball start will probably go differently than his debut.
The young right-hander whiffed nine Pittsburgh batters over six innings on May 18, but now he’s going up against a Toronto lineup that has just 22 strikeouts in the last seven days.
So that’s the reason why the over on Abel’s strikeout prop of 4.5 sits at plus-money at bet365. It’s far more likely that he hits the over on his outs recorded prop of 15.5.
Abel went seven innings in his Lehigh Valley start before his debut and then went six frames in his post-debut appearance back in the minors. He’s gone at least six innings in six outings this season between both levels.
I’d also look into the under 5.5 hits allowed for Abel. Yes, he’s facing a much better Toronto lineup in this start, but he’s only allowed more than five hits once this season at both levels.
Add in that the majority of the Blue Jays roster hasn’t seen any of Abel’s stuff and you have the potential for another quality start. The adjustments won’t be made until the second, or even third time through the order.
Abel and the Phils are a slight favorite against Jose Berrios, who can either give up seven runs or be the best pitcher you’ve ever seen. He showcased the latter in his most-recent start against the Athletics, as he struck out nine batters over six innings.
Three of Berrios’ five worst run concessions, though, came at home inside Rogers Centre.
There isn’t much history between Berrios and the Phils, but Nick Castellanos does have one home run, seven RBIs and a .381 batting average in 21 career at-bats versus the right-hander.
Bryce Harper and Bryson Stott each have home runs against Berrios in much smaller sample sizes against the pitcher who has spent all of his career in the American League.
Like Bowden Francis Tuesday night, Berrios is prone to home run concessions. He’s let up 10 long balls (six to righties and four to lefties) this season and he’s allowed at least 25 dingers in each of the last three seasons.
The usual suspects are in play for Phillies home run props: Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Castellanos. For Pennsylvania sports betting apps, I’d eye the Phillies team total over of 4.5. Sure, Berrios had a good last start, but it was also against one of the worst teams in baseball. I think we see regression from him against a lineup that just put up eight runs last night.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.