Ad Disclosure
Cubs vs. Phillies Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for June 11
By Matt Modi
Published:
Home runs were flying at the Bank yesterday, but unfortunately none of the predictions we had came to fruition. Five home runs were hit, four coming from the Cubs and Max Kepler adding one for the Phillies. None of those were hit by Kyle Schwarber or Pete Crow-Armstrong, but today should feature another positive home run script based on the ballpark factors at Citizens Bank Park.
Already a hitters park with the short outfields, today features temperatures in the 80s with slight winds blowing out, both of which will help with carry. So, with that thought in mind, here are the best MLB home run predictions for the Cubs vs. Phillies today, June 11th.
Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run (+360) FanDuel
With Jesus Luzardo on the mound for the Phillies, it is tough to know what you are going to get. Through his first 10 starts of the year, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball, and only gave up a total of two home runs in those 10 starts.
In the three starts since then, however, he has allowed four home runs, and got shelled in his last two starts specifically. He allowed a combined 20 earned runs in those two starts, causing his ERA to skyrocket to 4.46. A lot of his advanced metrics still look decent (2.89 FIP, 3.23 xFIP and 3.42 SIERA), but there is definitely concern with what we are going to see from Luzardo tonight.
So, with all that said, Suzuki is our first play to go yard in this game tonight. He has, by far, the best numbers against lefties on the Cubs, especially recently. On the year, he has a phenomenal .424 ISO rate and 21.7% barrel rate against LHP, but over the last 30 days those numbers have gone up to a 29.2% barrel rate and .536 ISO rate. He also has a 50% HardHit rate and only a small ground-ball rate of 8.3% in this stretch against lefties.
Suzuki also rarely strikes out (14.3% K rate against LHP), which makes his percentage numbers mentioned above even more impressive. Look for him to clear a fence tonight.
Max Kepler to Hit a Home Run (+520) FanDuel
Kepler hit a home run yesterday, and we like him to hit one again tonight as he has another great opportunity to do so. The home run was smoked, with an exit velocity of 105.5, but, not only that, he had two other hits that were both 100+ EV as well. So, after slumping at the plate, it looks as though Kepler is starting to go on a roll.
The biggest advantage Kepler has tonight is his ability to hit 4-seam fastballs. The home run he hit last night was off a 4-seamer, and he is going to see a ton of them tonight going up against Ben Brown of the Cubs.
Brown is a good pitcher, to be clear, but he has been somewhat gettable in his last five starts, allowing four home runs in this stretch. That alone would not make him among the worst pitchers in baseball, of course, but all four of those home runs were hit off his 4-seam fastball, which he throws over 60% of the time against lefties.
That 4-seamer gets somewhat tagged by lefties as well, with a .261 ISO rate and 72% HardHit rate to LHH. Kepler surprisingly has the best numbers on the Phillies against the 4-seamer from righties, which is why he is a great option to homer tonight.
On the year, he has a .263 ISO rate (best on the Phillies), 25% barrel rate (leads the Phillies) and 61% HardHit rate (second on the team) against 4-seam FBs from RHP, all with a strikeout rate below 20%.
Hopefully, he goes back-to-back with another jack tonight.