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Phillies vs. Braves Picks, Home Run Props, Best Bets for June 27th

By Matt Modi

Published: Jun 27th, 2025 · 10:51 AM EDT

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The Phillies have to be glad to get out of Houston, after a brutal three-game sweep by the Astros. They wasted three excellent starting pitching performances, only scoring one run combined in those three games in Houston. Thankfully, those that tailed the two plays we gave out had some success, as we cashed both of our plays yesterday in Hunter Brown over 6.5 strikeouts and Bryson Stott over 0.5 total bases.

The Phillies look to put these last three games behind them in a big NL East series against the Braves in Atlanta. As for today, Mick Abel is pitching for the Phillies and Bryce Elder is on the mound for the Braves, with first pitch scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Please check out our favorite MLB home run predictions for the Phillies vs. Braves today, Friday June 27.

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+240) BetMGM Sportsbook

With Abel on the mound we, unfortunately, have to take some home run props against him. He had a great start to the year, but has gotten absolutely rocked in two of his last three starts, allowing a combined seven home runs in those two starts. He has made five starts this year and has been excellent in three of them, but those two bad starts really plummeted his overall numbers.

In 22 innings pitched, he has allowed a home run every 13 at-bats, with a 2.74 HR/9, 0.275 ISO rate, 56% HardHit rate and a combined line-drive + fly-ball rate of 65.76%. Those are horrific numbers across the board, which only get worse against left-handed hitters. Six of his seven home runs allowed have been hit by lefties, allowing a home run every 8.67 ABs against left-handed hitters.

While Olson is not having a great year in the home run department, some of that can be attributed to bad luck. In the last seven days he is tied with the most HardHits on the Braves with 11, which is a healthy number, along with a respectable average launch angle of 17.2 degrees, showing that he has also been putting the ball in the air. He does have a 17.3% barrel rate on the year, which is an excellent number and the 10th-best in the MLB.

So, in a good matchup in a hitters park, expect Olson to take Abel yard tonight.

Austin Riley to Hit a Home Run (+300) BetMGM Sportsbook

Riley is another batter on the Braves who is red hot, and with Abel’s home run numbers in mind it only made sense to double up on Braves hitters to go yard. Riley is the other batter on the Braves tied with 11 HardHits over the last week, and nobody on the Braves has had worse luck with crushed baseballs not clearing a fence.

In the series against the Mets, Riley had a triple that was 106.3 mph EV off the bat and traveled 409 feet, a hit that would have been a home run in 15/30 stadiums. He followed that up in the same game with another flyout that was 101.3 mph EV. Then, the very next game he had a double that was 112.1 mph exit velocity and would have been a home run in 11/30 stadiums, a baseball that traveled 362 feet. Lastly, in last nights shutout, he had another HardHit flyout that was 106.1 mph exit velocity and was 371 feet.

The fact that not one of those cleared a fence is tough luck, but it does show a batter who is both hitting the ball hard and putting the ball in the air. While Abel is definitely worse against LHH, as mentioned earlier, he is also gettable by a righty. He has allowed a HardHit rate of 62.50% against righties with a fly-ball rate of 43.75%, all with the low strikeout rate of 17.95%.

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Mick Abel Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105) BetMGM Sportsbook

Perhaps this is too negative on Abel, but this is simply too good of a line to get at plus-money to pass up on. As mentioned earlier, Abel has made five starts this year, and he has only cleared four or more strikeouts in one of those starts. That also happened to be his first start of the year when he was admittedly electric and struck out nine batters.

Of course, that was against the lowly Pirates, who have the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the entire MLB. Since then, Abel has yet to clear this 3.5 line, and is going up against a Braves team that is a little more middle of the pack in terms of strikeout rate.

So, if we take that out that first start and just look at the last four, Abel would have a strikeout rate of 12.2% and a K/9 of 4.67. For context, that would be both the lowest strikeout rate and the lowest K/9 of all qualified pitchers in the entire MLB. It was certainly a fun story when Abel looked great in his first two starts, but it does seem as though the moment has passed him, and getting this strikeout prop at +105 feels like a gift, so we’ll take advantage.