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Best Bets and Trends for the 2025 Home Run Derby
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Home Run Derby field possesses the MLB home run leader, four other guys with 20-plus home runs, and some of the best young stars in the game.
It’s not a superstar-laden field. In fact, I’m not sure who the marquee name in the eight-man field is because Cal Raleigh just surged on to the scene this year and he plays in Seattle.
Raleigh, who has 38 home runs, is the clear favorite to win in Atlanta on Monday night.
The Mariners catcher moved from +360 to +275 at BetMGM and has the highest handle percentage of bets there.
For Pennsylvania sports betting and NJ betting apps, BetMGM has an Odds Boost Token available for the Derby. I would recommend using it on one of the three favorites just to increase their odds a bit.
Oneil Cruz is the second favorite, while the Nationals’ James Wood is third on the odds board across all books.
Wood is my personal pick to win the Derby. He can be shifted from +400 to +480 with a 20 percent boost.
There’s no real science behind the Wood pick. I just think he’s the young star that breaks out on a national stage on Monday. The Nationals don’t have much going for them other than Wood’s success. Plus, Bryce Harper and Juan Soto each won the HR Derby as young Nationals players. That means nothing in terms of trends for Wood, but it would be a cool narrative to push for ESPN with no Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani.
With the way the Derby is formatted, I’d seriously look into “Player to Reach Semifinals” markets at bet365 more than any other prop.
The four players who hit the most home runs will advance to the semifinals before they are bracketed from the No. 1 seed to the No. 4 seed.
Byron Buxton, Matt Olson, Brent Rooker, Junior Caminero, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are all plus-money to reach the semifinal round at bet365.
Buxton is an Atlanta native, and Olson is hitting in his home ballpark, but Caminero is the one of the quintet that intrigues me the most.
Caminero’s had a really good season for the Tampa Bay Rays with 23 home runs. Not many people are talking about him going into the Derby, but he has a real chance to make a name for himself. I’d take him at +150 to reach the semis.
A lot of unknowns are in place for the semifinal and final round because of the format, so I would stay away from exact matchup props.
The other way to approach the Derby is first round home run props. There are no limits in terms of matchups to the first round. It’s just go out and hit a ton of dingers.
A year ago, 19 home runs was the number required to advance to the semifinals. Three players hit over 20 home runs in the same first-round format.
Caminero’s over 17.5 and Buxton’s over 19.5 first-round home runs are the two props I’d take. I’d actually take Oneil Cruz’s under 21.5. Cruz hits the ball hard, but I think he might have trouble elevating. After all, he’s only got 16 home runs on the season.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.