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Setting the Odds for if Joel Embiid or Paul George Will Play More Sixers Games this Season
By Sean Barnard
Published:
Nothing says team bonding like getting knee surgery together.
Now both Joel Embiid and Paul George have undergone some form of vague arthroscopic knee surgery from of Dr. James L. Glashow. The duo shared the floor for just 18 games together last year and played 15 total games alongside Tyrese Maxey. Neither Embiid nor George were able to look like the best version of themselves, and the early returns of the offseason have been less than promising.
Daryl Morey has refused to commit to an Embiid timeline outside of him being on track for “right around” training camp. ESPN’s Shams Charania provided more clarity on George’s injury outlook and made it clear that both sides will be cautious with their approach. In both cases, it has not been made public what the specific injury is or what the surgery even directly fixed.
For better or worse, through sickness and health, the Sixers are married to the pair of aging All-Stars. Embiid is on the books for $55.2 million next season before his three-year, $187.6 million contract extension kicks in, taking him through the 2028-29 season. George earned more than $49 million across his 41 games played last year and will make $105.7 million across the next two seasons before holding a $56.6 million player option in 2027-28.
Joel Embiid 2025-26 Outlook
Injuries have been a familiar issue with Joel Embiid and the fear is the recent meniscus problem could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. The 31-year-old played a career-low 19 games last season and failed to look like himself when he was on the floor. This came after he missed two months of the 2023-24 season after Jonathan Kuminga fell on his knee to worsen existing issues. While this is often looked at as the sole moment the tear happened, it’s worth noting the former MVP missed back-to-back games before this with knee soreness and looked notably hobbled on the floor before this unfortunate play:
The big man went under the knife on the torn lateral meniscus following this and missed the next two months of the season. Embiid returned for five regular season games before suiting up for the playoff series against the Knicks. He averaged an NBA-best 33 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 5.7 assists across the six-game series, but his movement was notably limited. Perhaps there is no play that encapsulates the ridiculous talent that Embiid is and the way his body has consistently failed him as much as the off-the-glass alley-oop he put on display before tumbling to the ground in pain:
There has been plenty made about Embiid’s decision to play in the Olympics last offseason. Playing 19 NBA games certainly doesn’t make the decision look great. But at the same time, if he had just rested all offseason and focused on recovery, there would be plenty of critique of him not being active enough. There’s a chance his knee would have been cooked regardless, and also a chance this additional surgery and time off could be the cure he needs.
Adding the most recent knee issues to the laundry list is less than reassuring, but this offseason has been the longest extended time off the Sixers star has had since the pandemic.
Paul George 2025-26 Outlook
There has not been any official announcement on what the specific injury is for Paul George, but PHLY’s Kyle Neubeck reports the problem did not involve any major ligaments:
The injury outlook for George is a bit more complex. He dealt with a variety of injuries last season, which included missing one game for an ankle issue, two games due to injury management, five games for a finger problem, eight games for his pair of knee hyperextensions, 10 games for a groin injury, and 15 games for the adductor problem that eventually ended his season. To his credit, George was receiving pain management injections in an effort to remain on the floor, dating back to before the All-Star game. The nine-time All-Star also likely would not have been fully shut down in a more competitive season, but the writing was on the wall with the Sixers looking to maximize their lottery odds.
George played 74 games with the Clippers the prior season, with his looming free agency worth noting. But he suited up for 56, 31, 54, and 48 games in the four years prior and had not played 60+ games since 2018-19 with Oklahoma City before his final year in Los Angeles. The 35-year-old does not have quite the same level of concern for a specific injury, but his body has been through plenty throughout the years, including one of the most gruesome leg breaks of all time back with the USA Olympic team over a decade ago.
The Verdict
When creating some imaginary odds for aging Sixers stars, I would slam the under of 55 games for both players. Expect updates as the season gets closer, but the vague reporting that’s already surfacing feels like the soft launch to the “ramp up” period stretching into the season. Let’s not forget that both of these players missed the start of last season with knee issues as well. Another year older and with another surgery for each, it’s fair to doubt their outlook for the 2025-26 season.
Hypothetically, I am making Paul George the -175 favorite to play more games than Joel Embiid. You can take Embiid for +145, also hypothetical odds, if you’re feeling bold. It has always been true that the full focus is on doing whatever it takes to give Embiid his best chance of being healthy in the postseason. But expect this to especially be on display this year with the end closer in sight than ever before for the two-time scoring champ. Paul George has not quite earned the grace for extended load management and still has plenty to prove. He has not shown to be the most self-aware human being across his Podcast P conversations, but expect him to at least recognize this. The production was not what was hoped for, but George does deserve some credit for the effort he made to continue getting on the floor with the pain management injection last year before the season fully unraveled.
In either case, all signs are pointing toward the young guys carrying the load for the Sixers next season. Whether Embiid and George are able to be semi-healthy for a playoff run will dictate if the Sixers can be a frisky playoff team in an incredibly weak Eastern Conference. But it’s worth having some excitement around a Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain, and V.J. Edgecome-led team. Each of the young players are exciting talents who play with a high motor and will be hungry to assert themselves. It may not be what we trusted the process for, but having a roster with a group of young guys who care could be a bit of a pleasant change.
Sean Barnard has covered the Philadelphia 76ers and general Philly Sports for over six years in a variety of roles and for multiple outlets. Currently works as a Content Writer for DraftKings Network, Sixers/NBA Insider for Philadelphia's Fox Sports the Gambler, and co-host of Sixers & Phillies Digest on Youtube. Forever Trusting the Process.