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Yankees vs. Phillies Home Run Picks: Expect Balls to Fly at Yankee Stadium

By Matt Modi

Published: Jul 25th, 2025 · 3:07 PM EDT

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The Phillies lost a tough one to end their series against the Red Sox on Wednesday, making it so they did not get the sweep against Boston. Now, they head to New York for a big series against the Yankees. The hitting conditions in this game tonight are among the best you’ll see over the course of the season when considering Yankee Stadiums park factors along with the weather, which we will get into more detail about below.

For this article, we are looking to stay hot after getting two home run predictions correct on Wednesday, diving into the best MLB home run predictions for Yankees vs. Phillies tonight.

New York Yankees Home Run Analysis

• Jazz Chisholm Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+260) BetMGM
• Cody Bellinger to Hit a Home Run (+325) BetMGM
• Anthony Volpe to Hit a Home Run (+600) BetMGM

The format of this article is going to be slightly different than the typical one, with the reason being we are going to end up having five total home run plays for today. So, we will be doing a deep dive into each teams situation, as opposed to detailing each player individually.

Part of the reason this is such a home run game to dive into today is due to the park factors and weather conditions, as referenced above. In general, Yankee Stadium is a good park for left-handed hitters due to the short right field porch. So, lefties are already a look at any Yankees home game, but, for today specifically, the temperature is going to be in the 90s for most of the game, with double-digit winds blowing out to right field. For context, this game has a +31% home run index, and is almost double the average home run situation when looking at right field specifically.

Then, for Yankees hitters, they have a positive pitching matchup across the board against the Phillies. Taijuan Walker is the starting pitcher for the Phillies, who has been dreadful for the better part of the last three years, and especially recently. Over his last five weeks, which includes a couple starts and bullpen appearances, Walker has allowed a home run every 11 at-bats, with a horrible barrel rate of almost 11% in that stretch.

Not only could Walker himself allow multiple home runs (like he did in his last start) but he also is unlikely to pitch deep into the game, which brings the Phillies us to the Phillies bullpen, that is bottom 10 in terms of ERA (4.20 ERA) and home runs allowed (45).

So, the Yankees are likely to hit a bunch of home runs tonight, and we are hoping to get a couple of them in the batters mentioned above. Chisholm Jr. and Bellinger are both lefties, so they have the benefit of the park factors mentioned above, and Chisholm Jr. specifically has been red hot recently. He was hot heading into the All-Star break, and has continued to hit well in the week since. He leads the Yankees with 12 HardHits total in this stretch, with an excellent fly-ball rate (41%) and pull-rate (61%) in this stretch as well.

Bellinger has not been hitting as well as Chisholm Jr, but he has two home runs of his own since the ASB, and similarly has a good fly-ball rate (54%) and pull-rate (41%).

Anthony Volpe is the only non-lefty that we have to hit a home run today, but he also leads the Yankees in total barrels with five since the return of the All-Star break. He is one of only 11 batters in the entire MLB with five or more barrels in this stretch, putting him in pretty good company. Taijuan Walker also has worse numbers against righties than he does lefties, so Volpe is still worth playing despite not having the benefits of being a lefty.

Philadelphia Phillies Home Run Analysis

• Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+200) BetMGM
• Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+240) BetMGM

As far as the Phillies hitters go, this one is pretty simple analysis: take the two lefty mashers on the Phillies to go yard in some of the best home run conditions they will see in their career. The weather and stuff is definitely important, but it is also important to note that both batters have been fantastic over the last week. Harper has been great for 10 games or so, while Schwarber has been good for essentially the entire year.

The symmetry between these two hitter since the break is funny to look at, as they both have hit four home runs, along with each having five barrels and 11 HardHits in this stretch as well. So, they are in the same category as Volpe mentioned above being one of 11 batters with five or more barrels over the last week.

They both have also done a great job pulling the ball, with Harper having a pull-rate of 59% and Schwarber at 62.50%, which we know is important based on the stadium they are playing at today.

While the Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren is not quite as bad as Taijuan Walker, he has struggled immensely against left-handed hitters recently. He has allowed 11 home runs on the year, nine of which have been hit by lefties. Over the last five weeks, however, he has allowed a home run every 15.25 at-bats to lefties, with a very bad barrel rate of 13.11%.

He loves to throw the 4-seam fastball to lefties, over half the time, and both Harper and Schwarber have fantastic numbers against 4-seamers from RHP this year, detailed below:

• Bryce Harper against 4-seam FB from RHP: .302 ISO rate, 17% barrel rate, 55% HardHit rate, 47% fly-ball rate.
• Kyle Schwarber against 4-seam FB from RHP: .325 ISO rate, 13% barrel rate, 62% HardHit rate, 41% fly-ball rate.

The Yankees bullpen has also had similar issues to the Phillies, joining them with 45 home runs allowed, and are only one spot below them in terms of ERA at 4.07.

Hopefully, home runs fly in Yankee Stadium tonight, and we can cash two of these which will equal profit.