Union

Union Drop Points at Home, Still in Supporters’ Shield Pole Position with Eight Games Remaining

By Kevin Kinkead

Published: Aug 11th, 2025 · 1:09 PM EDT

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The Supporters’ Shield standings following a weekend in which the Union conceded late to settle for a 1-1 home draw against Toronto FC:

Toronto is not a good team. The Union really should have gotten all three points at the Soob, which would have set the Shield lead at four points with eight games remaining. San Diego won, but Cincy, Nashville, and Miami all lost, so nobody at the top of the Eastern Conference had a memorable weekend.

Some notes here on the Shield, and remaining schedules:

• Expansion San Diego is very good. Total quality in year #1. Their problem going forward is they still have to play LAFC, Minnesota, Portland twice, and San Jose twice. All of those teams are above the playoff line.
• The Shield winner typically finishes between 2.00 and 2.10 points per game. The Union are on 1.96 right now and won it with 2.04 PPG in 2020. They lost the LAFC tiebreaker with a 1.97 and 67 points in 2022.
• They’ve got 24 points available over these final eight games. If the U can get 18, they finish with 69 points and a 2.03 PPG, which is what Cincy won the Shield with in 2023.
• The stretch that decides the Shield, or at least Philly’s involvement, is going to be August 30th to September 13th. The Union play Cincinnati on the road, then break for the international window, and fly out to Vancouver the following week. That’s two games against the top 5, with a break between. If they come out of that in 1st place, they’ve got three beatable Eastern Conference teams before the season finale in Charlotte.
• At the same time, Cincy hosts Nashville after hosting Philly, so their Shield fate is going to be determined in mid-September as well.
• Miami is bleeding goals and still has to finish the Leagues Cup. Can Lionel Messi get healthy and play center back? They also have Nashville at home and a road trip to Seattle.
• Orlando is playing really well and a darkhorse candidate to make a push here.

Again, nobody expects the Union to go 34-0-0 and lift the Shield. I think Union fans are a little triggered by the missed opportunities for the simple fact that we watched the greatest team of all time get screwed out of a second Shield in 2022 due to fugazi tiebreaker rules. All they needed back then was one more measly point to add the trophy cabinet, but they couldn’t get it done, despite finishing with a ridiculous +46 goal differential.

So you look at some of the draws they’ve settled for this year, Toronto this past weekend, at Houston, the inability to score in Dallas while playing up a man, etc. The stoppage time goals from Columbus and Miami in Chester. You hope that stuff doesn’t end up being the difference here, because the Shield margins are slimmer than slim.