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Another Low-Scoring Night Expected for Phillies, Reds, Inside Great American Smallpark
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phillies played a role in extending one of Major League Baseball’s stand out betting trends on Monday night.
The Reds are now 16-4-2 to the Under since the All-Star break. Games inside the stadium nicknamed The Great American Small Park are 20-7-3 to the under since the start of June.
Tuesday night’s Over/Under is set at 9 at BetMGM for a pitching matchup that could generate a lot of easy outs between Ranger Suarez and Brady Singer.
Suarez slowed down the Reds offense back in July with six strikeouts and the concession of five hits and an earned run over five innings. The Phillies won that game 5-1 and easily hit the under.
Singer tossed six shutout innings against Atlanta in his last home start. The right-hander allowed three earned runs or less in four consecutive home starts. His ERA is close to three full points better in Cincinnati, which is wild, because for a long time the Reds’ ballpark was an easy spot on the board to target for home runs.
I would use the under, or at least the First Five Innings Under, for BetMGM’s Any Sport Odds Boost Token
I’d make as similar case to chase the pitcher outs recorded prop again on Tuesday. Singer’s outs recorded prop sits at 15.5 at bet365 with the over at even-money. He pitched at least five full innings in each of his home starts dating back to June 1st.
Suarez’s outs recorded prop is a bit tougher to go after because it sits at 18.5. He pitched 6.1 and 7 innings in his last two starts, and he’s more than capable of recording 19 outs, but I’d be wary of the over because he might get pulled early if he’s around the 80-85 pitch mark with the playoffs in mind.
Home runs are going to be hard to come by for both teams. Suarez let up three long balls since July 1st and Singer let up four dingers in that same stretch. That doesn’t mean no home runs will be hit, but it’s harder to bet on because pitchers with less variance are on the mound.
I would look into combining some hit props together, though, since the two pitchers paired to give up 23 hits in their last two starts.
Of all people, Max Kepler is the one with the best head-to-head history from his time in the AL Central against Singer. He’s got two home runs and a .261 average in 23 ABs versus the righty.
Former Phillie Austin Hays has a .400 AVG in 10 ABs against Suarez. That’s the only significant H2H history on the Reds side.
Hays has a 1.051 OPS against lefties, so I’d put him, Kepler, and Trea Turner into a SGP to get a hit along with Singer o15.5 outs.
As for PA betting promos, and NJ sportsbook promos, bet365 has a $10 Safety Net Bet available for Tuesday’s slate. That SGP pays out at +575.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.