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Should the Phillies be Concerned About Zack Wheeler’s Shoulder Soreness?
By Sean Barnard
Published:
Pitching has been a Phillies strength all season. As a collective staff, they rank sixth in MLB in ERA, ninth in WHIP, have allowed the seventh-fewest earned runs, are second in shutouts, and have struck out the second most total hitters.
Zack Wheeler has been at the epicenter of this and delivered as the Phillies ace all season. The three-time All-Star is posting a 2.68 ERA and 0.926 WHIP with 189 strikeouts, 31 walks, and 103 hits allowed across his 144.2 innings pitched. He leads MLB in strikeouts, ranks eighth in ERA, is third in WHIP, and opponents are posting the fifth-worst batting average against him. Wheeler holds the second shortest odds for the National League Cy Young this season, trailing only Paul Skenes.
But a few eyebrows were raised last week when Wheeler’s scheduled start was bumped back a pair of days due to shoulder soreness. On the positive side, all imaging came back clean, with there being no direct injury to blame. However, when he did make his 23rd start of the season, there was a notable dip in velocity compared to what is expected from the Phillies horse:
To his credit, Wheeler gutted his way through five innings, allowing two earned runs and striking out seven members of the Texas Rangers, though nothing looked easy for the 35-year-old in the way that we have become accustomed to seeing. Seeing the velocity dip with each pitch changes his entire approach and roughly a two mile-per-hour difference is notable.
Wheeler is not the only player feeling the wear and tear of the MLB season. Ranger Suarez has also seen his velocity dip. It is fair to have an even larger concern with Suarez since the velocity dip extends across multiple seasons:
Even still, Suarez has been mostly excellent this year. He entered his previous start with a 2.94 ERA and 1.150 WHIP with 96 hits allowed and 98 strikeouts tallied across his 107.0 innings pitched. The former All-Star did not have his best stuff in his previous start, giving up 10 hits and six earned runs in just 5.1 innings pitched. Suarez never had his typical level of control and he also is posting a 6.59 ERA since the All-Star break.
It’s worth noting Suarez dealt with something similar last year and still gutted it out come playoff time. He threw 4.1 scoreless innings in his lone postseason start against the Mets in which he struck out eight.
Even while the strength of the overall pitching staff is a positive for the Phillies, it’s established around Wheeler as the foundation. He should already be penciled in as the Game 1 playoff starter whenever this takes place, and against whoever the Phillies face. Wheeler’s career 2.18 postseason ERA is only further evidence of why this should be the case, and he went seven scoreless inning with nine strikeouts in his lone playoff start last year.
Assuming this is just fatigue or a dead arm the Phillies starters are dealing with, the time to act is now. They’ve played 119 games already this season, which leaves 43 remaining. While the NL East was expected to be one of the more competitive divisions in baseball entering the year, it has not played out this way. The Nationals, Braves, and Marlins are each below .500 and just about entirely out of the postseason hunt. The Mets remain the biggest concern but they’ve imploded since the All-Star break. New York snapped a seven game losing streak Tuesday night but are losers of 11 of their last 13.
The Phillies have a five-game lead for the NL East and have a little cushion they can count on. There also are seven games set to be played between the Phillies and Mets before the postseason starts, which will likely play a major role in seeding. The Phillies do not have things wrapped up yet by any means, but control their direct destiny.
Aaron Nola is working his way back after being sidelined due to injury since May 14th. He threw 84 pitches in his previous start down in AAA to get through 5.2 innings with two hits and two earned runs allowed while striking out 11. Andrew Painter has not looked as convincing, with a 5.42 ERA in Lehigh Valley. But all expectations were for him to make his MLB debut this season and there are worse ideas than throwing him to the fire and giving him some major league seasoning. Cristopher Sanchez has shown no signs of slowing down and is making a Cy Young case in his own right. Taijuan Walker has also looked competent of late and is posting a season-long ERA of 3.39 with just one earned run allowed across his previous two starts. Jesús Luzardo has battled through his own struggles this year, but has sunk down the totem pole of priorities as the season has progressed.
The sense of urgency within the clubhouse cannot disappear, but the Phillies have some wiggle room for the remainder of the regular season. The goal is to win a World Series and this cannot be done until the opprotunity arrives. Being proactive in creating some additional rest for some of the fatigued arms should be looked at as a priority and the Phillies have the bodies to make this happen.
It’s far from ideal, but not a disaster for Wheeler to be dealing with this type of issue. What he looks like in October matters far more than any of the remaining regular season starts and the Phillies should operate with this mindset.
Sean Barnard has covered the Philadelphia 76ers and general Philly Sports for over six years in a variety of roles and for multiple outlets. Currently works as a Content Writer for DraftKings Network, Sixers/NBA Insider for Philadelphia's Fox Sports the Gambler, and co-host of Sixers & Phillies Digest on Youtube. Forever Trusting the Process.