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Phillies Open Mets Series a Slight Home Dog with Aaron Nola vs. the Guy Who Looked Like Sandy Koufax Two Weeks Ago

By Joe Tansey

Published: Sep 8th, 2025 · 1:58 PM EDT

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The next four games can’t go worse for the Phillies than the three-game set in Queens a few weeks ago, right?

RIGHT?

Well, the Phils are actually a slight underdog on the money line at ESPN Bet for Monday’s series opener, Trea Turner is hurt, and Aaron Nola is still in need of a clean outing.

The vibes aren’t tremendous, but the Phils enter the week with a seven-game lead over the Mets in the National League East and the Mets are nine games under .500 away from Citi Field.

Since sweeping the Phils, the Mets are 4-6, won one of three series, and dropped three of their last four games on the road. When you think you have it bad as a Phils fan sometimes, remember the Mets exist.

The Phillies will get their second crack at rookie Nolan McLean on Monday. McLean gave up four hits over eight innings the first time he faced the Phils on August 27th. He’s allowed only four earned runs in 26.1 innings since he was called up.

The opposite can be said about Nola, who allowed 18 earned runs across 19.1 innings in his four starts since returning from the injured list. The Phils could really use a strong Nola start to open a homestand, but I understand why there are doubters.

As is the case with most NL East opponents, the Mets’ top bats have strong histories against Nola, which is why Monday’s game looks so concerning. Pete Alonso has five home runs and a .321 AVG in 53 ABs, Juan Soto has three HRs and a .237 AVG in 38 ABs and Brandon Nimmo has a pair of long balls and a .255 AVG in 55 ABs.

The Phils are probably going to have to score four or five runs to have a chance of winning, unless Nola transforms into a playoff-caliber starter. The Phils are coming off a series in which they scored 17 runs against the Marlins.

They have to solve McLean in order to achieve success on Monday because, again, we just simply don’t know what version of Nola will show up.

Nola’s outs recorded Over/Under sits at 16.5 with the Over at -110 at ESPN Bet. I’d actually look into that because Nola went six innings in his last two home starts. He went 6.1 frames early in the year against the Mets in an outing where he conceded seven hits, walked two, and struck out six.

Since I assume most of you won’t be fading Nola with Mets props, I’d look into Nola and McLean’s strikeout numbers. You can get both of them at Over 4.5 strikeouts in a Same Game Parlay at +134. They are +313 to each have Over 5.5 Ks.

McLean’s had at least six strikeouts in each of his four starts and Nola’s had six punchouts in two of his last three games.

It’s not much, but with so little faith in the matchup on paper, it might be worth attacking that angle and then hoping for the best with the bats against McLean.

Kinkead: conversely, you could avoid this one like the plague and spend the night with blackjack online casino and online slot games.