Legal Sports Betting

Penn State a 3.5-Point Favorite for White Out Game vs. Oregon

By Joe Tansey

Published: Sep 25th, 2025 · 1:47 PM EDT

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One of Penn State’s two meaningful regular-season games takes place on Saturday.

Oregon comes to Happy Valley for a White Out game. It’s a battle of top six teams and one of the two litmus test contests for the Nittany Lions as a title contender. The other one comes on November 1st in Columbus.

Penn State is a 3.5-point favorite at ESPN Bet. The Lions were favored in their first three games, but they did not cover in any of those contests. Quite frankly, they looked pretty vanilla in most of those 12 quarters, which has led to some mild criticism of Drew Allar.

I think two things are at play here: 1) The Nittany Lions didn’t have to get out of cruise control against Nevada, FIU, and Villanova. 2) They probably saved some of the offensive concepts for Saturday. Why would you put the good stuff on film for Oregon when a milquetoast offense is good enough to go 3-0?

On the other hand, Oregon’s been beating the snot out of everyone. The Ducks outscored their opponents 203-37. Three of those wins are against power-conference teams, but Oklahoma State just fired Mike Gundy, Northwestern will probably fire its coach, and Oregon State is simply not good.

Oregon is 3-1 ATS and 2-2 to the total, while Penn State is 0-3 ATS and 1-2 to the over.

Those stats don’t matter much yet, but one that does is Penn State’s White Out record. The Nittany Lions haven’t lost a game of this kind since 2018.

Of course, you can flip that by stating James Franklin’s hideous record against premier teams. He is 4-20 against AP Top 10 teams and 1-17 versus Big Ten teams ranked in the Top 10.

That is the best trend you’ll find for this game, and honestly, it’ll be a big reason why some people take the Ducks not just at the +3.5, but at the +150 money line price.

Let me add a few big-picture wrinkles to this for PA sports betting and NJ betting apps.

Oregon is +275 to win the Big Ten. If you believe the Ducks beat PSU, that’s the much better wager to make. Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State in the regular season and its two remaining games versus top 25 foes are at home. Oregon should beat Indiana and USC in those games.

Penn State is +260 to win the Big Ten, but I wouldn’t bet that number. It’ll go up if the Nittany Lions lose, and I don’t think it’ll change much with a win because the trip to Columbus still looms.

The Penn State future to invest in is Drew Allar to win the Heisman at +3000.

If Allar has a big game against Oregon, his odds will probably be cut in half at least.

There’s no Heisman front-runner right now. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, who was the betting favorite, is injured. Indiana quarterback Francisco Mendoza is the current favorite, but the Hoosiers might not have staying power with road games at Oregon and Penn State.

It’s a wide open Heisman race right now. Oregon’s Dante Moore is +1100 is a steal because he’ll be the favorite if Oregon wins.

This is the week in college football as a whole to invest in the Heisman. Georgia plays Alabama and LSU plays Ole Miss in the SEC. Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) or Gunner Stockton (UGA) could easily be the Heisman favorite on Sunday morning.

I’m personally investing in Allar, but the overall tip remains. Pick one or two guys now that you have a sample size because the odds will shift entering October.