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Eagles vs Buccaneers: Odds and Predictions for a High-Profile Clash of Unbeaten NFC Teams

By Kevin Kinkead

Published: Sep 27th, 2025 · 7:19 PM EDT

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The Philadelphia Eagles head to Raymond James Stadium for a Week 4 showdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that serves as an early-season litmus test for both teams. The reigning Super Bowl champs have started 3-0 behind Jalen Hurts’ dual-threat capabilities, the quality of Vic Fangio’s defense, and the fact that Jake “the Make” Elliott is all the way back and banging in field goals from 50+. Kevin Patullo’s offense took off in Week 3 against the Rams, completing an improbable comeback of 26 unanswered points.

This matchup carries significant divisional implications as the Birds look for their 20th win in their last 21 games. The Buccaneers enter with their own undefeated record, setting up a slobberknocker between two teams with legitimate playoff aspirations.

Eagles vs. Buccaneers Odds

The sportsbooks installed the visiting Eagles as clear road favorites, laying 3.5 points with a moneyline price of -196. The total sits at a modest 43.5 points, reflecting expectations for a potentially defensive battle. Notable line movement has occurred since opening, with the spread shifting from an initial -2.5 to the current number, indicating sharp money on the Birds. Even more dramatically, the game total has plummeted from 48.5 points at opening, suggesting bettors anticipate a grind-it-out affair.

For moneyline action, the risk-reward profiles differ substantially. A $10 wager on the favored Eagles at -196 would net $5.10 in profit, while backing the home underdog Buccaneers at +165 would yield $16.50 on a successful upset bid.

Team Statistical Breakdown

The numbers reveal two offenses with contrasting strengths and a fascinating mismatch that could determine the game’s outcome. While both units have moved the ball effectively, their red zone execution tells vastly different stories.

Statistic	Philadelphia Eagles	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Points Per Game	25.7	24.0
Total Yards Per Game	268.7	322.3
Passing Yards Per Game	146.7	191.7
Rushing Yards Per Game	122.0	130.7
3rd Down Conv. %	43.9%	41.5%
Red Zone Offense Conv. %	100.0% (1st)	44.4%
Turnover Differential	+2	+2

The most glaring disparity lies in red zone efficiency, where Philadelphia’s perfect 100% touchdown conversion rate stands in stark contrast to Tampa Bay’s struggling 44.4% mark. The Eagles have been ruthlessly efficient inside the 20-yard line, converting all eight red zone opportunities into touchdowns. This surgical precision puts enormous pressure on the Buccaneers’ defense to prevent the Birds from getting into scoring position.

Tampa Bay’s offense has actually been more productive between the 20s, accumulating 322.3 total yards per game compared to Philly’s 268.7. However, their inability to finish drives has been their Achilles’ heel. The Buccaneers face an opportunistic Eagles defense that has generated several takeaways this season, making every possession critical in what projects as a close contest.

Quarterback Matchup Analysis

The signal-caller duel between Hurts and Mayfield presents contrasting styles that should dictate game flow. The betting markets have established clear expectations for each quarterback’s role:

Player	Passing Yards Line	Rushing Yards Line	Passing TDs Line
Jalen Hurts (PHI)	193.5	40.5	1.5 (+162 Over)
Baker Mayfield (TB)	220.5	17.5	1.5 (+124 Over)

The prop lines illuminate each team’s anticipated offensive approach. Mayfield’s passing yards projection (220.5) suggests Tampa operating through the air, particularly if they fall behind early. However, oddsmakers show skepticism about his touchdown production, pricing the over 1.5 passing TDs at just +124.

Hurts’ versatility shines through these numbers, with his rushing yards line set at a substantial 40.5. This reflects Jalen’s mobility as a primary weapon. His modest passing yards line of 193.5 indicates that the books haven’t totally bought in to what happened in the second half against LA.

Key Player Props

Jalen Hurts (PHI)

• Passing Yards: Over/Under 193.5 (-117/-113)
• Passing Touchdowns: Over/Under 1.5 (+162/-220)
• Rushing Yards: Over/Under 40.5 (-114/-114)
• Anytime TD Scorer: -133

Baker Mayfield (TB)

• Passing Yards: Over/Under 220.5 (-113/-115)
• Passing Touchdowns: Over/Under 1.5 (+124/-164)
• Interceptions Thrown: Over/Under 0.5 (-119/-110)

Eagles vs Bucs Historical Trends

Recent history heavily favors the Buccaneers in this matchup, creating an intriguing backdrop for Sunday’s contest. Tampa has dominated the series, winning five of the last six overall. And much has been made of the Eagles going down a day early in an effort to get acclimated to the heat.

From a betting perspective, the Buccaneers have consistently outperformed market expectations. They hold a strong 3-1 against the spread record in their last four games versus the Eagles, indicating a pattern of either winning as underdogs or keeping games closer than oddsmakers anticipated.

The hallmark of this rivalry has been lower-scoring affairs, with the under cashing in four of the last five. This defensive trend aligns perfectly with the significant total movement from 48.5 down to 43.5, as sharp bettors appear to be targeting another grind-it-out battle.

The Birds enter with plenty of momentum, sporting a perfect 3-0 record as favorites this season and boasting a 6-1 mark both straight-up and against the spread in their last seven road games.

Injury Report Impact

The injury situation heavily favors the Eagles, with Tampa monitoring several key contributors whose availability could dramatically shift the game’s complexion.

Player Name	Position	Injury	Status	Fantasy/Betting Impact
Mike Evans	WR	Hamstring	out	Major Impact. Evans’ absence would devastate Tampa Bay’s passing attack, making Mayfield’s 220.5 passing yards prop extremely difficult to reach.
Lavonte David	LB	Knee	DNP	Major Impact. The defensive captain’s potential absence would weaken run defense, creating opportunities for Barkley and Hurts on the ground.
Baker Mayfield	QB	Biceps	“questionable”	Significant Impact. A throwing arm injury raises questions about velocity and deep ball accuracy, adding risk to all passing props.
Adoree’ Jackson	CB	Groin	doubtful	Moderate Impact. Limited availability could create exploitable matchups for Tampa Bay’s receiving corps.

The Buccaneers’ injury report reads like a worst-case scenario, with their top receiver and defensive leader listed. Mayfield’s biceps issue compounds these concerns, potentially explaining the dramatic movement in the game total as bettors anticipate offensive struggles.

Eagles vs Buccaneers Best Bets

This matchup hinges on the Eagles’ ruthless red zone efficiency against Tampa Bay’s defense. The Eagles’ perfect 100% touchdown conversion rate inside the 20-yard line creates a massive advantage over a Buccaneers team struggling at 44.4% in those situations.

The Philadelphia Eagles are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games as favorites of less than seven points, providing strong situational backing for this play.

Top Betting Recommendations

Total: Under 43.5 (-110)
Historical trends support lower-scoring affairs between these teams, with the under hitting in four of five recent meetings. Mayfield’s biceps injury and Evans’ absence could significantly limit Tampa’s scoring ceiling.

Player Prop: Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer (-133)
A Pennsylvania sports betting staple. We bet this until the wheels fall off. The last time it didn’t cash was the first game of the 2024 postseason.

disclaimer: AI helped in the creation of this article, and if you’re not down with that, I’ve got two words for ya