Ad Disclosure
Do Not Give Up on Joel Embiid Just Yet
By Sean Barnard
Published:
The youthful influx of guard talent has been by far the biggest storyline surrounding the Sixers’ start to the season. However, even as exciting as this has been, the reality remains that whether the team can belong in the contending category depends on the level of Joel Embiid play.
For the first time in his career, there’s been a clear game plan in place for the best way to preserve Embiid’s health. Whether you want to place this blame on the player or the Sixers organization directly is up for debate, but the reality is the former MVP has played through issues he should not have far too often in his career, and has not been healthy in the most important moments. Availability has always been a buzzword connected to the Sixers’ star. But, too often, the game plan has seemingly been to roll Embiid out there for a full workload whenever he can and hope he can do the same when the postseason eventually arrives.
Having a calculated effort for the best way to preserve Embiid should be looked at as an extremely positive sign. As is the fact that the team is proving capable of keeping their heads above water, and even thriving, without the big fella on the floor.
Through the opening two games, the Sixers kept Embiid on a strict 20-minute limit. That included attempts at spacing him out in short bursts, as well as him missing the final 19:02 of game minutes due to burning through the 20 minute hard cap early. Philadelphia is beginning the gradually scale this up, with him logging a season-high 25 minutes in the lone loss against the Celtics. Through the opening four games he’s been on the floor, Embiid has posted minute totals of 20:18, 20:07, 23:02, and 25:04.
Panic seemed to kick in a following the season opener. After an offseason of being eerily quiet and non-committal to the superstar’s outlook, Embiid laced them up for night one and struggled in a major way. He finished with just four points, six rebounds, and two assists while shooting 1-for-9 from the field and finishing a team-worst -16 in what ended up being a one-point Sixers victory. The Sixers utilized Embiid in short stints across all four quarters, but he never settled in.
For what it’s worth, Embiid has never been a player who has traditionally hit the ground running. It typically takes him a few games to find his rhythm, and this looks to be the case again this year.
The Sixers adjusted in the second game by playing Embiid in longer stretches, which resulted in him being unable to play the final quarter and a half because of his minutes being used up. Across the 20 minutes he was on the floor, he tallied 20 points, four assists, two rebounds, and two steals on an efficient 7-for-11 shooting. He also voiced his preference for playing in longer stints to help find a rhythm compared to the short, broken-up bursts throughout a game.
Embiid missed his first game of the season last Wednesday, which marked the first half of the opening back-to-back of the season. Keeping him out of these matchups when he is playing consecutive nights also is a key part of the injury management plan and something expected to continue all year. The 7-footer returned to the floor the following night and finished with a season-high 25 points, seven rebounds, and five assists in 23 minutes.
He was also in the lineup for the Celtics loss and played the closing minutes for the first time all year. He finished with 20 points, six rebounds, three assists, and two blocks but failed to connect on a last-second grenade that had no business being put in his hands in the first place:
The Sixers held Embiid out of the victory over the Nets. The careful approach to his workload surely was a key part of this decision, as was the fact that the Nets have a chance to be a historically-bad team. Without him, the youthful squad cruised to a 129-105 win in their most businesslike victory of the season. Brooklyn is 0-6 and looks the part of a winless team, so there should not be too much stock put directly in this result. Still, the ability to comfortably beat teams they are better than has never been a strength of this Sixers team, with or without Embiid.
The Vision for Joel Embiid Moving Forward
Expect the minutes restrictions to remain applied to Embiid for the larger portion of the season. But even with the team’s success out of the gates, don’t confuse the fact that the superstar is necessary for having a chance in the postseason.
In an ideal world, Embiid would still be able to fly through the air to block shots and sky for rebounds the way his 24-year-old self could. But we live in an imperfect society where things like meniscus tears, Bell’s palsy, facial fractures, and gastroenteritis exist. Even with this being the worst version of Embiid as a basketball player by his standards, he is averaging 17.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in limited minutes across his first four games. The athleticism is not what it once was, but his touch on his jumper has not gone anywhere, and Embiid is still a guy that can roll out of bed to score 20 points. Plenty of NBA players can have career years that do not touch the statistical output of what Embiid is currently putting forth.
The biggest concern is his regression in rebounding and defensive impact. It’s fair to assess that opposing players have scored around the rim in situations they would not even dare attempt against Embiid during his peak. But this does not make his entire skillset worthless. It changes the equation of how to maximize a team around him.
The Sixers need a guy next to Embiid willing to do the dirty work and be effective on the glass. Dominick Barlow started the first two games and looked fit for this description, but has been sidelined since due to an elbow injury that is not expected to keep him out much longer. Trendon Watford started the season with a hamstring issue, but has returned to the floor and is coming off his best performance thus far. Across 25 minutes in the victory over the Nets, Watford finished with 16 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists with a unique skillset at 6-foot-8. Jabari Walker, Adem Bona, and even Andre Drummond have made cases why they could fill this role as well.
It is also to be determined how much Embiid’s movement and verticality improve as the season progresses and he gets more game reps under his belt. The track record for big men with lower leg issues is not great. But at least some of the problems with his hesitancy are mental. Compare the tape of Embiid’s first game to his fourth game this season, and there is already notable improvement in his movement and confidence. Sure, there could be a setback or this very well could be the peak. But the fact that there is any sort of progress in this short amount of time should be viewed as encouraging.
There certainly is a pathway to the youthful guard-oriented Sixers squad to win plenty of regular-season games, though the playoffs are a different beast, and the Sixers should be the first organization to tell you this. The style of play changes as defensive intensity ratchets up, the pace of play slows down, and every bucket means more.
While Tyrese Maxey is making his case, Embiid is still pretty clearly the best scorer on the Sixers in a half-court setting. There is no true match for his combination of size and skill, and he still has showcased the ability to punish smaller defenders when they rotate onto him. The two-time scoring champion does not have to be the option in the way that has been the case for most of his career. But having Embiid as an option is a massive advantage that no team can truly counter.
There are plenty of ‘ifs’ in this equation. But keeping the workload light on Embiid throughout the grind of the regular season feels best for all parties. The young guards will continue to get reps to improve and build confidence while Embiid builds up belief in his own body and works back to full health. Sixers fans have pleaded for getting healthy playoff run with their superstar, and this maximizes the chances of that being the case. It’s a long way to get there, but the blueprint to this is clearer than seemed possible.
For the time being, enjoy some hoops without second-round expectations hanging over the team’s head, absorb the most fun Sixers team in several years, and keep trusting the process.
Sean Barnard has covered the Philadelphia 76ers and general Philly Sports for over six years in a variety of roles and for multiple outlets. Currently works as a Content Writer for DraftKings Network, Sixers/NBA Insider for Philadelphia's Fox Sports the Gambler, and co-host of Sixers & Phillies Digest on Youtube. Forever Trusting the Process.