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8-3 Eagles are a Touchdown Favorite Over 8-3 Bears on Black Friday
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Eagles will try to avoid just their second losing streak since the start of the 2024 season on Black Friday against the Bears.
The Birds are a 7-point favorite at BetMGM for the clash of NFC divisional leaders.
The buildup to Friday’s game is eerily similar to the two-game losing streak in October in which the Eagles blew a lead in the fourth quarter against the Broncos and then were thumped by the Giants.
Well, the Eagles blew a second-half advantage against Dallas on Sunday and now they face a game on short rest against the Bears, just like what happened during the Broncos/Giants stretch.
Another frightening trend is that the Birds were a larger favorite against the Giants compared to the Broncos game. The same is true for Friday with the Birds favored by four more points than they were in Texas.
The betting formula with the Eagles has been pretty simple all season. They haven’t covered in three losses because they were favored. They’re 7-1 against the spread in victories.
Chicago comes into the game with a 4-2 ATS mark as an underdog, but hasn’t been large of a dog all season. The Bears, Caleb Williams specifically, have evolved in Ben Johnson’s offense.
Surprisingly, the Eagles don’t have much head-to-head experience against Johnson. The Eagles didn’t play the Lions in 2023 or 2024 when Johnson was at the peak of his offensive coordinating powers.
But the offense isn’t the problem for the Bears. The defense is.
Chicago’s allowed 20+ points to four of its last five opponents and let up rushing yard totals of 177, 169, 115, and 186.
Saquon Barkley, who is coming off a season-low 22 rushing yards, has his rushing-yard prop sit at Over/Under 78.5 at bet365. Former Eagle Kenneth Gainwell, Aaron Jones, Tyrone Tracy, and Derrick Henry all had at least 70 rushing yards against the Bears in the last five games.
Barkley is far better than three of those backs. Henry is the only player from that group in Saquon’s stratosphere. So if the Eagles offensive line holds it together, the assumption is that Barkley can run for at least 80 yards.
The Bears have also allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to wide receivers. DeVonta Smith is a bit banged up, so why not just run with A.J. Brown at +145 at bet365? Brown scored on Sunday and has had 21 targets over the last two games.
If Smith can’t go, or is affected by his injuries, Dallas Goedert would be the obvious target for props. I’d buy the dip in receiving yards prop at Over 33.5, even though he’s had less than 30 receiving yards in four of the last five games. Someone other than A.J. has to catch passes.
I’d look at Barkley 70+ rushing yards, then Brown 60+ receiving yards and a touchdown combined with Goedert 30+ receiving yards for a Same Game Parlay that gets you to +625 at bet365.
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Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.