Phillies

I’ll Believe the Cincinnati Reds Signing Kyle Schwarber When I See it

By Luke Arcaini

Published: Dec 4th, 2025 · 7:00 AM EST

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The Cincinnati Reds are “serious” about signing Kyle Schwarber, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Here’s a little bit from his newest story:

“Schwarber is from Middletown, Ohio, about 35 miles north of Cincinnati. He is interested in a possible homecoming, according to people briefed on his thinking. The Reds offer him the chance to transform their young lineup and play for one of the game’s most respected managers, Terry Francona.

The problem for Cincinnati is that the Philadelphia Phillies almost certainly will offer Schwarber more money.

The Athletic’s Tim Britton projects Schwarber to receive a five-year, $145 million contract. Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall has said the team’s payroll will remain about the same as it was in 2025. According to Fangraphs’ estimates, that would leave the Reds with about $20 million to spend.

Schwarber, coming off a career-high 56 homers, will cost considerably more than that annually. And the Reds still would need to fortify their bullpen. They could trade utility man Gavin Lux, projected to earn $5 million in arbitration, and maybe another player in a similar salary range. But unless they made an exception for Schwarber, it’s difficult to see how they could make the finances work.

Every time the Schwarber to the Reds rumors come up, it always starts with the “hometown” aspect. While that can factor in, you also have to think about the future of the player and what he would prefer. Does Kyle Schwarber want to stay in Philadelphia and compete for a championship every year with the Phillies, or does he want to go to the Cincinnati Reds?

Yes, the Reds had an improved 2025 season, making the playoffs for the first time since 2020, and before that, 2013. But I can’t imagine that Schwarber is coming into this with “going back home” and “hometown discount” at the front of his mind.

The Reds have never handed out a new contract worth more than $70 million. Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas are the Reds’ highest contracts ever given, both at $64M over 4 years. Joey Votto’s 10-year, $225M deal was an extension.

Rosenthal notes that Nick Krall, the Reds’ President of Baseball Operations, believes the payroll will remain about the same as it did last year. The Reds can’t hang with the big market teams in free agency right now, and I think that’ll be proven very soon.

Listen, I can’t guarantee you that Schwarber will be back, because nothing in life is truly guaranteed, not even the tush push anymore! But the Phillies are the favorites, they started the favorites, and I believe they’ll end the favorites in the Kyle Schwarber sweepstakes.

Kinkead: The Reds are “serious” about signing Kyle Schwarber like I’m “serious” in taking Dakota Johnson to the Philly Sportswriters’ annual banquet in Cherry Hill.