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Is it Time to Start Buying in on Joel Embiid’s Resurgence?
By Sean Barnard
Published:
Joel Embiid is about two months away from turning 32 years old. On record, he has had at least three knee surgeries on his left knee, one on his right, has broken his face three times, missed the first two years of his career with a broken foot, and has played 470 of a possible 937 games since being drafted in 2014.
Injury concerns were a red flag with Embiid long before he entered the NBA. It’s also the reason he fell to the third pick in the 2024 draft, and was able to start his career in Philadelphia. It feels like he sometimes gets talked in a “what-if” type of framing, but the reality is Embiid has seven all-star appearances, five All-NBA team appearances, three All-Defensive team appearances, has been crowned the scoring champion twice, and is the 2022-23 NBA MVP. Joel Embiid is a Hall of Fame basketball player. The bigger question is how much he has left to add to his resume.
For the first time in the span of two seasons, Embiid has played five consecutive games. He played those five games over a span of just nine days and, beyond just the availability, he has looked far closer to his MVP self than any fair expectations would lead you to believe:
On the season, Embiid is averaging 23.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.3 blocks while shooting 47.2% from the floor and 24.3% from beyond the three-point arc. He has suited up for 18 of the 35 games.
But across his past nine, Embiid is averaging 29.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.2 blocks, while shooting 52.3% from the field and 28.1% on three-point attempts. He has recorded double-digit rebounds in four of these nine games, scored 22+ points in each game, registered his first two dunks of the season across the past week, and played over 40 minutes against the Nuggets.
Most concerning regarding Embiid’s outlook has been the lack of impact he has had defensively. The two-time scoring champion has plenty to speak about offensively as well, but Embiid’s ability to serve as the backbone of a defense is crucial to the entire design. For the bulk of his career, it has been true that regardless of the four players around him, if Embiid is the anchor of the team, it will be an above-average defense. But this has not been the case this year, with Embiid not able or willing to challenge opponents at the rim at the rate we are accustomed to seeing:
He is not close to being on pace to add to the three All-Defensive teams he has already qualified for. But there has been an encouraging growth in confidence in recent matchups. The physical issues are undoubtedly the root, but Embiid’s lack of confidence in his own body to leap vertically at the rim and try to block shots has been the larger problem. These physical and mental hurdles are extremely connected, and it takes him playing consistent basketball to work through each. Embiid was a split-second late on this attempted block in the loss to the shorthanded Nuggets, but the willingness and ability to sprint three quarters of the court and leap for a block from behind is extremely encouraging:
The season is still not quite to its halfway point, but if you’re to look at how Embiid has moved at the start of the season compared to how he’s moved in recent games, he seems like a completely different player.
As is always the case when discussing his outlook, it’s the qualifying ‘ifs,’ and the fear that the 7-footer picks up a knock. But one of the driving reasons why last season went off the rails was the disconnect between Embiid and the front office regarding his health. The team was seemingly unaware of what his status was on a night-to-night basis and did an extremely poor job painting an accurate picture of his outlook. Embiid also took to the media himself to essentially force the team’s hand at exploring another surgery and eventually was shut down for the year.
It hasn’t been 100% perfect, but there has been less uncertainty than was the case last year. At minimum, this has certainly led to a better overall vibe in the team. He also is already just one game shy of his games played from last season.
Also, the reactionary takes of “just trade away Embiid and fully turn a page on this era” are understandable, but unrealistic. The former MVP has a three-year, $188 million extension that is just set to begin next season, and no team is itching to commit to pay Embiid $67 million three years down the line. The Atlanta Hawks were just forced to take pennies on the dollar for a Trae Young trade due to team’s concerns with his style of play and the extension he is set to command. Embiid possesses even clearer red flags, and the changing CBA has made trading players of this dollar value increasingly difficult. It would almost certainly require the Sixers attaching picks to Embiid’s contract just to bring in the lesser player. The frustration is fair, but the best organizational decision is to keep rolling the dice and hope this current trend of his improvement is sustainable.
It’s tough to have realistic expectations for Embiid for the remainder of the season. The days of him putting the team on his back and carrying this Sixers’ organization are likely over. But it also should be viewed as a positive that the team has another legitimate All-NBA talent in Tyrese Maxey while VJ Edgecombe is already playing like a seasoned veteran. The style of play during the Embiid era has been criticized plenty, and there has been some notable change in this attack, which he has largely bought into.
Entering the season without any sort of expectation was a refreshing reset for this Sixers season. Building up deep postseason hopes is still premature, but far more possible than it initially seemed. Nick Nurse and the Sixers are sorting through what exactly this iteration of the team can be in the same way we are all attempting to figure it out. But if there is one positive takeaway from the past stretch of games, it’s that the days of Joel Embiid playing All-Star caliber basketball do not look to be entirely gone in the way they once seemed.
Sean Barnard has covered the Philadelphia 76ers and general Philly Sports for over six years in a variety of roles and for multiple outlets. Currently works as a Content Writer for DraftKings Network, Sixers/NBA Insider for Philadelphia's Fox Sports the Gambler, and co-host of Sixers & Phillies Digest on Youtube. Forever Trusting the Process.