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Phillies Postseason: Worried or Not Worried?
By Luke Arcaini
Published:
The Phillies are playing a very on-brand version of Phillies baseball right now. It feels like no lead is safe, and there isn’t a ton of confidence in the offense to string together runs like they were at the beginning of August. With 10 games to go until the postseason, that’s not a great feeling to have.
But nonetheless, the Phillies are 84-68, 16 games over .500, after once being 9-19 this season. They have turned their season around, even if they’re not always playing the best baseball. Barring a generational collapse, they will find themselves in their 5th-straight postseason. The matchup and location has not yet been decided.
With 10 games to go in the regular season, I was curious to gauge the pulse of the fanbase. What you’re currently worried about, and what you’re not worried about. Some of these are interesting, so let’s dive into a couple of them:
Worried: Situational hitting & baserunning
This is probably the biggest one. I’ll admit, the Phillies have gotten better at situational hitting this year. That’s not saying much, because it still doesn’t feel like a skill for them. But it feels like they’ve had more games this year where they’ve strung together some really, really nice spurts throughout games.
What I worry about, more than “situational” hitting, is not capitalizing on opportunities. I guess you could call that situational hitting. But I worry about not taking advantage of good at-bats from Justin Crawford. I worry about the 2-hole of the Phillies lineup. I worry about lazy pop-ups when all you need to do is hit a line drive.
That’s been the case for years with the Phillies… it can’t happen again this October.
Baserunning is something I unfortunately just don’t think will get better. Baserunning blunders are rookie mistakes, and it’s not rookies making these mistakes. Maybe their “focus” will be higher in the postseason, but the baserunning concerns are real.
Not Worried: Cristopher Sanchez’s recent struggles & Jesus Luzardo’s health
I’m not really worried about Sanchez either, if that makes you feel better. You should trust Sanchez and back the last 2.5 years of success. He’s a playoff riser, and I believe that will continue to happen this year.
Luzardo’s health… is a slight concern. Luzardo is eligible to come off the IL on the last day of the regular season. I would not be surprised to see him pitch in some capacity that day, just to get him back on a mound before the postseason. I’ll continue to fall back on the take that Luzardo is an absolute grinder whenever he steps on the mound. I have confidence in him to battle through whatever is going on. He’s already said multiple times that if the postseason started tomorrow, he’s going to figure out a way.
Worried: Phillies offense facing (back to back) lefties in the Wild Card Round
Phillies right-handed hitters have an .814 OPS against lefties since July 1st (H/T Matt Gelb). That is a shockingly high number for a team that was nearly an automatic loss against lefties the first three months of the season. Now, the worries could come without lefties going up against lefties, specifically Bryce Harper. Harper has a .686 OPS against left-handed pitching this year with a .344 slugging percentage. That’s been a concerning number all year.
The biggest game-changer against lefties has to be Alec Bohm, who has raised his OPS up above .700 after an abysmal first half. He has seen southpaws very well over the last two months.
Not Worried: The bullpen (???)
I won’t lie to you, I wasn’t expecting to see this! Maybe he meant to say Jhoan Duran only. But the Phillies bullpen isn’t necessarily in a great spot. Your second-most trusted reliever is a rookie. Jonathan Bowlan, a once dominant righty, has struggled a lot over the last month. Jose Alvarado has shown signs of serious life… but you always have to hold your breath. Not many Phillies fans want to see Orion Kerkering in a big spot. Brooks Raley has struggled in limited appearances.
It’s going to be a dogfight to get to the ninth inning.
Worried: Don Mattingly
It feels like Mattingly struggles to have the consistent pulse of the team. Yes, he’s run into bullpen issues beyond his control. But there have been decisions over the last few months… pinch-running too early, not going to the right pinch-hitter, etc, that could be a serious issue for this team when the lights are brightest.
Worried: Trea Turner
This last one is my worry, and that worry is Trea Turner.
Turner is now hitting .240 this season with a .647 OPS, which is tied for 122nd out of 137 qualified hitters. His .292 on-base percentage is 127th out of 137. He has a .572 OPS in the month of August. He has been a negative player for the Phillies this season, and it doesn’t seem like he will be moved out of the 2-hole. If Turner turns around his 2026 and has a great postseason, nobody will remember the last six months. But will that happen? It’s hard to confidently say yes.
Luke Arcaini has been writing about the Phillies for 6 seasons, and is now in his 2nd year covering for Phillies down at Citizens Bank Park for Crossing Broad. Follow him on Twitter @ArcainiLuke