Sports Gambling

Virginia Oregon Odds: Line, Prediction and Betting Analysis

By Bob Wankel

Published: Mar 27th, 2019 · 2:52 PM EDT

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There may not be a hotter team in the nation than the Oregon Ducks right now. After stumbling its way through much of the regular season, Dana Altman’s team has ripped off 10 consecutive victories, claiming the Pac-12 Tournament championship and winning two games in the NCAA Tournament. In just over three weeks, the No. 12 seed Ducks have gone from NIT probable to knocking on the door of the Elite Eight, but in order to break through they will need to topple No. 1 seed Virginia. Let’s take a look at the Virginia-Oregon odds.

Odds, moneyline and total

Virginia -8.5, over-under 119.5 at PointsBet NJ.

Stats

Oregon arrives in Louisville after easily disposing of No. 5 seed Wisconsin and No. 13 UC Irvine on the strength of two stellar defensive efforts and a balanced offensive attack which saw four players score in double-figures. The Ducks were particularly efficient shooting the basketball against UC Irvine, connecting on 45.8% from the floor and on 13 of 25 attempts from deep. Virginia, meanwhile, withstood an early first half stumble against No. 16 Gardner-Webb in what would’ve been a catastrophic loss before dusting Oklahoma in the second round. The Cavaliers, of course, are looking to vanquish the lingering demons still looming over the team from last year’s historic first round loss to No. 16 seed UMBC. They can get one step closer to doing so if they take care of business as a heavy favorite on Thursday night.

Trends

Virginia is the nation’s second-best team in terms of covering the spread at 24-10, behind only Drake, but the Ducks are a stellar 22-15 ATS overall. Both teams are also strong in road and neutral court games. The Cavaliers are 14-4 ATS (a 77.8% cover rate) in such contests, while Oregon is 12-8 ATS.

In terms of what we can learn from the point spread, the Cavaliers are 22-10 ATS as a favorite and 3-1 ATS when favored between 6.5 and 10.5 points. Meanwhile, Oregon is 5-7 ATS as an underdog or when the game is a pick’em.

Since 2005, albums teams favored between 7 and 10 points are 12-8 ATS in Sweet 16 contests, but when the No. 1 seed is favored in that same range, they’re 10-5 ATS. In fact, if you’re looking to back Virginia, you will be comforted by what is overwhelmingly favorable Sweet 16 historical data for No. 1 seeds.

Top seeds also favored in Sweet 16 games are 38-8 SU and 24-21-1 ATS since 2005, but that’s not all. Since 2014, favored No. 1 seeds are a perfect 14-0 SU and 11-2-1 ATS in this round. That’s a pretty convincing recent sample.

The seeding difference between these two teams also bodes well for Virginia. When there is a seeding difference of 11 or more spots and the team is favored between 8 and 10 points, such squads are 14-6 ATS and a perfect 4-0 ATS in the Sweet 16. More specifically, No. 1 seeds versus No. 12 seeds are 5-2 ATS in the tournament since 2005 and a No. 1 seed has never lost to a No. 12 in the NCAA tournament. In fact, the only No. 12 seed to ever reach the Elite Eight was the 2002 Missouri Tigers, who lost to Oklahoma, but beat No. 8 seed UCLA to get there.

Prediction

It’s not like Virginia is immune to upsets as a top seed, but the historical ATS and SU trends, particularly those heavily favored, is so overwhelming that I simply can’t pick Oregon to win this game. There’s no doubt Virginia has had its share of disappointing tournament losses, but I’ll go against a betting public that seems to expect another premature exit and lay the points. Give me the Cavaliers to win and cover.

 

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