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Premier League Picks Week 36

Philip Keidel

By Philip Keidel

Published:

Paul Pogba has been ordinary of late. Image via Twitter.

Once again this weekend, the Premier League has saved the best for last. Yes, league-leading Liverpool played on Friday night, but Huddersfield Town conceded inside the first minute and that match was all but unwatchable. The only interesting thing that came out of that match for me was my text to my brother on Thursday where I said that that match would probably end 5-0. I really wish I had bet that — predicting exact scorelines is really lucrative.

All three of these Sunday matches will have an impact on either the title race or the distribution of the Champions League places in the Premier League. I had a winning week last week, most especially thanks to Everton’s hammering of Manchester United. In midweek, United lost the derby to Manchester City. That’s seven out of nine losses in all competitions for United, who plays Chelsea tomorrow. Seems like there’s a pick to be made there. Winners after the jump.

MANCHESTER UNITED v. CHELSEA

When something looks too easy, it usually is. Chelsea is fourth in the table with a tenuous grasp on the last Champions League position. But a win here would propel Chelsea into a tie for third place on points (though they’d still be fourth on goal difference) with Tottenham Hotspur, who announced with their home loss to West Ham on Saturday that their entire focus is on their Champions League semi-final tie with Ajax. So Chelsea has a lot to play for in this match.

As noted earlier, United is in total free fall. All of the goodwill that manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer accrued during United’s hot streak while Solskjaer was the interim manager has been washed away in a series of ugly losses capped off by these three consecutive beauties: Barcelona 3-0 United; Everton 4-0 United; United 0-2 City. Barring some unforeseen collapses from all three of Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal, United isn’t going to track down one of the Champions League spots from sixth place in the table with three matches to play.

It just looks so easy to pick Chelsea, until you remember that Chelsea isn’t very good on the road in the league this season. They lost away to Liverpool, Everton and City in the past ten weeks. In that same span, the Blues have dropped points at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers and, last week, Burnley. And it’s noteworthy that United drew with Chelsea in the league in the season’s first meeting at Stamford Bridge AND that United knocked Chelsea out of the FA Cup. United isn’t scared of Chelsea, and Chelsea isn’t a great bet on the road. Take United to win at 31/20.

BURNLEY v. MANCHESTER CITY

It’s really “league title or bust” for Pep Guardiola and City now. Ever since City crashed out of the Champions League (again), the narrative in the press has been a fisking of Guardiola’s record in international championship play, with whiffs of “he’s an overrated fraud” permeating the text. City has three more league matches left. If they win all three, they win the title. None of the three is especially difficult, starting with this one away to Burnley. City is 2/7 to win the league, which means both that they should do it and that, if they don’t, it’s going to be a real indictment of Guardiola.

City has played Burnley twice this season (once in the league, once in the FA Cup) and beaten them by 5-0 each time. But both of those matches were at the Etihad. Additionally, Burnley is on a hot streak at the moment, with three straight league wins followed by their home draw with Chelsea on Monday. Will Burnley shock the world and take points from City?

No, they will not. But they won’t get shut out again. Burnley has scored in 11 of their last 12 league matches. Take City to win AND both teams to score at 2/1.

LEICESTER CITY v. ARSENAL

Yeah, that’s some closing three for Leicester City, facing three of the league’s top five sides in succession. Fortunately for the Foxes, while they’d certainly love to get results in all three of these matches, they don’t really need to. Leicester’s place in the league next season was secured many weeks ago. They are playing mostly to retain a place in the top half of the table, which isn’t the sort of thing you get a banner for. Still, they’ve won three of their last five with only one loss in that span. They are a home side in good form.

Arsenal is the exact opposite, i.e., a road side in terrible form. The Gunners have lost three of their last four matches in league play. They are still alive in the Europa League tournament, which is definitely a mixed blessing as they most likely have their focus on Thursday’s first semifinal leg with Valencia at the Emirates.

This “battle” for the last two Champions League places has been a real pillow fight, and projects to continue as such. I’m not convinced that Leicester can win this match outright, but I am convinced that Arsenal can’t. Take Leicester City to win OR draw at 1/2.

Good luck on Sunday.

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS

Tottenham Hotspur to win (11/1, half unit) or draw (5/1, half unit) at Manchester City: LOSS

Watford to win at Huddersfield Town at 20/23: WIN

Everton to beat Manchester United at 2/1: WIN

LAST WEEK’S TOTAL: +$187

SEASON TO DATE: -$1,461

Philip Keidel
Philip Keidel

Formerly a Featured Columnist on the Philadelphia Phillies and Manchester City Football Club for Bleacher Report. Full-time attorney, part-time pundit. Follow me @philkeidel on Twitter.

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