Archives

Bettors Heavily Favoring Bucks in a Potential Series Against The Warriors at DraftKings Sportsbook

Joe DiProsperos - May 20, 2019

It would be fair to say that the Warriors and Bucks, in all likelihood, will be advancing to this year’s NBA Finals– the Warriors’ fifth straight appearance and the Bucks’ first in 45 years. It would be a Finals featuring two of the league’s biggest powerhouses, and sportsbooks are already hopping on that possible matchup.

Potential odds in a Bucks-Warriors series

DraftKings Sportsbook has the odds in a Bucks-Warriors series, as expected, favoring the Warriors at -225, with the Bucks being a +180. When converted to implied probabilities, that equates to the Warriors having a roughly 69% chance of winning the series, as opposed to around 35% for the Bucks (the difference is the juice).

Yet when we take a look at FiveThirtyEight’s projections, they currently give the Warriors a 65% chance against whomever comes out of the Eastern Conference. So in essence, the Warriors are slightly more expensive than actual expectations.

Current NBA Finals look ahead lines have betters heavy on the Bucks

With that being said, DraftKings Sportsbook recently opened up betting for the hypothetical series, and here is where things currently stand:

Potential Warriors vs Bucks Finals Matchup
Team
% of Handle
% of Bets
Warriors
3%
11%
Bucks
97%
89%
   (Bets void if series does not occur)

As you can see, an overwhelming majority of bets and the handle have gone towards the Bucks, and understandably so. For one, the Warriors are slated to be heavy favorites no matter who they face, so it would be a no-brainer to place money on their opponent being that the Warriors would a pretty expensive bet. Plus, it’s not as though the Bucks have absolutely no chance at making the series competitive. The two teams split their two regular season match ups, and Milwaukee has been on an absolute tear these playoffs, winning ten of of twelve these playoffs while boasting one of the most unstoppable players in the league in Giannis Antetokounmpo along with a very versatile lineup around him.

The Warriors should, in all likelihood, prove to be too much for whichever team is given the dubious honor of having to take them on in the Finals. But don’t be surprised if the Milwaukee Bucks make it at the very least an interesting series.

You can get up to a $500 free bet at DraftKings here.

Here Are The NBA Draft Lottery Betting Odds at NJ Sportsbooks

Joe DiProsperos - May 14, 2019

The 2019 NBA Draft Lottery is set to kick off Tuesday night in Chicago. Fourteen teams will be vying for the chance to win the Zion Williamson sweepstakes– he is the clear consensus number one overall pick in this year’s draft. And this year, NJ sports betting sites are offering NBA Draft Lottery betting odds.

This is also the first year under the new draft lottery system in which the three teams with the three worst records in the NBA will all have an equal chance to earn the number one pick. The New York Knicks, Phoenix Suns, and Cleveland Cavaliers hold that dubious honor this year.

Here’s where the NBA Draft Lottery odds currently stand at PointsBet, where you can get any lottery bet matched up to $25 for the NBA Draft and $1,000 in risk-free bets:

NBA Lottery Winner Odds

  • New York Knicks (+600)
  • Phoenix Suns (+600)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (+600)
  • Chicago Bulls (+650)
  • Atlanta Hawks (+725)
  • Washington Wizards (+800)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (+1200)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (+1400)
  • Dallas Mavericks (+1400)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (+2800)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (+4000)
  • Miami Heat (+8000)
  • Charlotte Hornets (+8000)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (via Sacramento) (+8000)

When converted to implied probabilities, these odds, for the most part, check out when compared to those provided by mainstream media outlets such as ESPN and Tankathon.

SPORTSBOOK
SIGNUP BONUS
NEW JERSEY
draftkings sportsbook
FIRST BET MATCHED UP TO $500
CLAIM OFFER
pointsbet logo
$1,000 IN RISK FREE BETS
CLAIM OFFER
fanduel
$500 RISK FREE BET
CLAIM OFFER
william hill
BET $50 GET $50
CLAIM OFFER
sugarhouse sportsbook
$250 DEPOSIT BONUS
CLAIM OFFER
betstars
$500 IN FREE BETS
CLAIM OFFER
888 sport
$10 FREE BET WITH NO DEPOSIT
CLAIM OFFER

Yet, we’ve highlighted three picks that evidently appear to have slight discrepancies between their implied probability and actual probability (Tankathon is in bold).

Lottery Winner %

New York Knicks (14.3%)

Phoenix Suns (14.3%)

Cleveland Cavaliers (14.3%)

Chicago Bulls (13.3%)

Atlanta Hawks (12.1%) (10.5%)

Washington Wizards (11.1%) (9.0%)

Memphis Grizzlies (7.7%) (6.0%)

New Orleans Pelicans (6.7%)

Dallas Mavericks (6.7%)

Minnesota Timberwolves (3.4%)

Los Angeles Lakers (2.4%)

Miami Heat (1.2%)

Charlotte Hornets (1.2%)

Philadelphia 76ers (via Sacramento) (1.2%)

In essence, PointsBet is charging more for bets on the Hawks, Wizards, and Grizzlies compared to what their actual chance of winning the lottery is.

 

How we got here

New York Knicks

The Knicks finished their 2018-19 campaign at 17-65, the worst mark in the league, and are currently tied for the best odds to win the lottery with the Suns and Cavaliers. They also are set to have roughly $74 million in cap space this upcoming summer, and look to be major players this summer at the start of free-agency.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns finished at 19-63, 2nd-worst in the league, and are tied with the Knicks and Cavaliers for the best odds to win the lottery. This year marked their fourth-straight season of losing at least 58 games, and is also the ninth-straight year they find themselves in the draft lottery.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The first season of the second post-LeBron era in Cleveland saw the Cavaliers finish 19-63, tied for the 2nd-worst record in the league, and has them tied with the Knicks and Suns for the best lottery odds. They finished the season on a 10-game losing streak, although Collin Sexton showed promise as a first-year point guard.

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls ended up at 22-60, fourth-worst in the league, earning them the fourth-best odds to win the lottery. This is their second straight year they find themselves in the lottery after posting a .500 or better record in seven-straight seasons.

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks finished this season at 29-53, fifth-worst in the NBA, therefore giving them the fifth best lottery odds. Despite this also being their second-straight year in the lottery, Trae Young had a standout rookie season, making a strong case for Rookie of the Year the second half of the season. The Hawks also own the Dallas Mavericks’ top-five-protected pick this year.

 

Where to bet

Both DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet are offering odds closely aligned with actual winning percentage chances. FanDuel Sportsbook and FOX Bet are offering slightly marked up odds (for instance, the Knicks are +500 to win, which represents a 16% chance of winning, not the 14% chance they actually have).

So you’re best bet is literally at DraftKings or PointsBet for the lottery.

SPORTSBOOK
SIGNUP BONUS
NEW JERSEY
draftkings sportsbook
FIRST BET MATCHED UP TO $500
CLAIM OFFER
pointsbet logo
$1,000 IN RISK FREE BETS
CLAIM OFFER
fanduel
$500 RISK FREE BET
CLAIM OFFER
william hill
BET $50 GET $50
CLAIM OFFER
sugarhouse sportsbook
$250 DEPOSIT BONUS
CLAIM OFFER
betstars
$500 IN FREE BETS
CLAIM OFFER
888 sport
$10 FREE BET WITH NO DEPOSIT
CLAIM OFFER