How and Where To Bet Miami and Florida

miami florida betting preview

It’s true that we’re a few weeks into the NFL Preseason, and that’s great. After all, some football is better than no football, but we’ve finally reached the point in the calendar that brings us meaningful football: Florida and Miami. Here’s our betting preview and prediction.

The college football season is upon us with the first marquee matchup taking place in the Sunshine State this Saturday night between Miami and Florida. I’m here for it. PA online sports betting is most definitely here for it, too, as this game marks the first opportunity for those in the state to legally place an online bet on football.

How to Bet on Miami-Florida

Pennsylvania

Before we get into the game breakdown, let’s first run through where to place your bets.

FanDuel Sportsbook PA offers new users a $500 risk-free bet when they sign up. FanDuel is also offering “close loss insurance” on the game– Get up to a $50 refund on moneyline bets if your team loses by 6 or less.

You can bet also bet on iOS with SugarHouse Sportsbook. You can get a $250 deposit match when you sign up right here.

New Jersey

For those of you in New Jersey, hit our NJ online sports betting page for all of the best promos and deals in the Garden State. There are a few deals that we recommend.

First, we strongly suggest William Hill NJ which recently rolled out its new online sports betting platform. William Hill is offering a free $50 when you place a $50 bet.

PointsBet is another great and option and is offering up to $1,000 in risk-free bets.

And lastly, the GOAT, DraftKings Sportsbook, which is offering up to $500 in free bets. They’re also offering a turnover boost and will give you $10 when your team gets a turnover.

How to Watch Miami-Florida

  • Date: Saturday, August 24
  • Time: 7 p.m.
  • Location: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, FL)
  • Network: ESPN

Miami-Florida Odds

Here are the current Miami-Florida odds at the top online sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook

    Spread     Money        Total
Miami     +7 (-105)  +235   O 47 (-110)
Florida     -7  (-115)  -300   U 47 (-110)

SugarHouse Sportsbook

    Spread     Money        Total
Miami     +7 (+100)  +225   O 47 (-110)
Florida     -7  (-121)  -295   U 47 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook

    Spread     Money        Total
Miami     +7 (+100)  +225   O 47 (-110)
Florida     -7  (-121)  -295   U 47 (-110)

PointsBet

    Spread     Money        Total 
Miami     +7 (-105)  +235   O 47 (-110)
Florida     -7  (-115)  -301   U 47 (-110)

Win Probability

ESPN’s FPI index gives Florida a 73.4% win probability. The implied win probability at most legal sportsbooks, as of writing this, is 74.1%, so there’s almost no take away here. The game seems to be priced accordingly.

Miami has an implied win probability of 30.3%, which is a quite a bit higher than their ESPN probability of 26.6%. That’s the juice. So Florida is priced better at current odds.

Miami-Florida Betting Preview

New Miami head coach Manny Diaz and his team will have an opportunity to make an immediate and emphatic statement on Saturday night when they open up against No. 8 Florida. While this game could serve as a potential spring board for the Hurricanes, it’s not a must-win. It’s expected that Miami will have an opportunity to remain competitive in what should be the ACC’s wide-open Coastal Division.

Jarren Williams will start for Miami after beating out Ohio State transfer Tate Martell. This moved the total about 2-3 points, down from an opening around 50.

Williams has a brutal offensive assignment in his first start as he goes against what should be an outstanding Florida defense. Making matters worse, Williams will be dropping back with a true freshman at left tackle and a redshirt freshman at right tackle.

Miami has a ton of upside, but its youth and inexperience on offense could show early on.

On the other hand, this is a monster game for Dan Mullen‘s team, one that has legitimate college football playoff aspirations.

Florida used what was at times a dominant rushing attack to control games behind a veteran offensive line last season, averaging over 213 yards per game on the ground last season. With leading rusher Lamical Perine back, the Gators will try to replicate that success in the opener, but that will be a tough ask with four new starters along the offensive line as they go up against a talented Miami front seven that limited the opposition to only 3.6 yards per rush last season.

Meanwhile, quarterback Feleipe Franks took huge strides last season, tossing 24 touchdowns to only six interceptions. He improved dramatically as a passer, became more willing to make plays with his feet, and was excellent protecting the football.

If he continues to progress, Florida’s offense could be one of the country’s most balanced attacks.

Miami-Florida Betting Trends

Why Backing Miami is a Good Bet

There are a few different angles to attack as we look at the trends in this one. First, let’s start with the fact that this is an early-season August game.

Florida comes in favored by a touchdown, so I wanted to see how teams with a similar spread range have  historically performed in August games. The answer? Not great.

Teams favored between six to nine points are only 12-19-1 against the spread (ATS) in August dating back to the 2006 season.

More specifically, teams favored by seven to nine points are only 7-15 ATS, so the idea here is that laying a similar amount of points early in the season has been a bad strategy.

While this trend isn’t specific to August, another trend that supports a play on the Hurricanes is that teams favored between six to eight points when the game total is between 46-48 points are 23-31-1 in non-conference games.

Finally, Miami and Florida haven’t squared off much in recent years, but Miami has covered the last two meetings between the teams in 2008 and 2013, and the Hurricanes did so as an underdog in each contest.

Why Backing Florida is a Good Bet

The first thing that jumps out here is each team’s performance against the spread last season. The Hurricanes were only 5-8 ATS, while the Gators were 9-4 ATS. Florida was also 6-3 ATS as a favorite and 2-1 ATS as a favorite between 7 to 10 points. Interestingly, the Hurricanes played 12 of their 13 games as a favorite and they were a pick ’em in the other contest, so they didn’t play as an underdog last season.

While this game marks Manny Diaz’s first career game as a head coach, Dan Mullen’s teams have an outstanding track record when favored, going a stellar 42-31 ATS, including 7-3 ATS when favored between 7 to 10 points.

Another thing trend that strongly supports a play on the Gators is that ACC teams are only 31-40-2 ATS against SEC squads as an underdog dating back to January 2005. This includes a 6-11 mark since 2006 and a rough 2-5 ATS record last year.

Meanwhile, ACC squads that are an underdog between 7 to 10 points are 0-5 ATS dating back to the 2014 season and are 1-6 when that range expands to 7 to 13 points.

The Under Feels Good

Redshirt freshman Jarren Williams will start for Miami. Prior to this announcement, The over-under hovered around 50, but has since dropped to 47.5. According to SportsInsights, 86% of bets were on the under prior to that announcement, and the number has jumped to 94%.

Betting Splits

DraftKings has provided us with betting splits on Miami-Florida:

miami florida betting splits

Miami-Florida Prediction

My initial lean was to grab the points with Miami. Getting a touchdown in an early-season in-state rivalry game seems like a value grab, but I can’t ignore the SEC’s dominance over to ACC in games with similar point spreads, nor can I ignore Mullen’s track record as a favorite, or the fact that Florida is simply the better team.

I’ll take the talent of the Gators and the experience of Mullen to kickoff the 2019 season with a bang, scoring a win and cover over the Hurricanes in Diaz’s first game.

Prediction: Gators and the under.

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