Phillies

Phillies Got Answers on Young Starting Pitchers, Still Have Plenty of Questions to Answer

By Bob Wankel

Published: Sep 28th, 2019 · 5:49 PM EDT

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The Phillies are 80-80 and have only two games remaining in this most disappointing of seasons.

The current roster will undergo a major overhaul in the months ahead, and it still remains unclear if Gabe Kapler will be the team’s manager beyond Sunday afternoon’s season finale.

While we await an answer on that front, it’s abundantly clear that whoever is managing the Phillies next season will need to get more–a lot more–from a starting rotation that has posted a 4.62 ERA, the NL’s fifth-worst mark, and the league’s third-lowest fWAR.

Actually, what I mean by “get more” is that they will need to add new starting pitchers, multiple new starting pitchers, if they want to avoid playing meaningless baseball in front of 30,000 blue seats late next September. Again.

If it makes you feel better, lay all of the Phillies’ failures on Kapler, but know that Joe Maddon, Joe Girardi, Casey Stengel, or Jesus Christ wouldn’t win with this current starting rotation.

Aaron Nola is one piece. You can also bet that Jake Arrieta is going to pick up his $20 million option, so he will be back. Beyond those two guys, who knows? There will be multiple spots up for grabs.

Of the current holdovers under contract for 2020, Zach Eflin, who makes his final start of the season tonight, has emerged as the most likely candidate to hold down one of the three remaining spots–at least if Kapler has a say, which, well, you know.

Here’s what he said ahead of Saturday night’s game against the Marlins when asked if Eflin had separated himself from the team’s other young arms:

I think there’s a fairly clear distinction, and that’s not meant to be a knock on Vinny or on Nick. It’s just, I think, Eflin has experienced more sustained success. I also think he’s been dominant for longer stretches of time and the net of the two seasons—the numbers combined—look like an established major leaguer. There’s probably less to poke holes in, and again, I just want to make this clear, this is much more about Eflin and the success that he’s having than the lack of success Nick has had, or some of the struggles that Vince has experienced. I personally think that Eflin has established himself as a dependable piece of a major league rotation.

I have two takeaways from this answer:

1. Pencil Eflin into the rotation for next season.
2. You will notice that Gabe went out of his way not to slight the other two guys, which is polite of him, but the numbers don’t lie–and the numbers don’t bode well for Velasquez or Pivetta.

Velasquez’s 4.91 ERA, 5.22 FIP, and 1.389 WHIP are each the second-worst marks of his middling five-year career, while Pivetta, who I believe the Phillies may look to trade this winter, had a disastrous season.

Kapler offered a brief assessment of both.

“I think the conversation about Vince needs to continue, and Nick, I think has some work to do this offseason,” Kapler said.

Asked specifically about what type of work Pivetta needs to do, Kapler elaborated.

“I think that he has a really good game plan in mind,” he said. “He’s going to go to Southern California and workout with some other high-quality pitchers that are also with his agency, CAA, and I think that will be in place to work on his frame of mind and to work on his pitches and his durability.”

This isn’t the first time Kapler has alluded to Pivetta’s issues stemming beyond physical mistakes, and given the 26-year-old was twice demoted during a season in which the Phillies desperately needed competent arms, I don’t think it requires a crazy leap to think the organization has soured on him.

Just a little deductive reasoning by me as we wait for what should be a very interesting few weeks ahead.  One thing is for sure, there’s plenty of questions to answer.