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A Look at the Odds and Trends for the Week 7 Monday Night Football Doubleheader
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The NFL has gifted us yet another two-for on Monday Night Football.
It’s no doubt a gimmick, but I’m a glutton for football and god dammit I’m going to have two TVs running because as I told my wife the other week: “We only get 272 of these. We need to cherish them all.” I’m surprised the divorce papers haven’t been drawn up yet.
Anyway, there’s one really good game (Ravens/Bucs) and one, well let’s just say there’s a reason it’s an ESPN+ exclusive (Chargers/Cardinals).
Ravens (-3.5) at Buccaneers (Over/Under 50)
The Ravens and Bucs know how to play entertaining games.
The Ravens have the best record to the over in the NFL at 5-1. The Bucs aren’t far behind at 4-2 to the over with three straight games going over.
Baltimore is 3-2-1 against the spread and has covered in all three games in which it closed as a favorite of four points or less.
Tampa Bay holds a 2-1 ATS mark as an underdog with two outright wins over the Eagles and Lions.
If you’re playing this game from the prop perspective, the pass-catchers are the players to target outside of Derrick Henry. Tampa Bay is going up against a Ravens defense that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. The Bucs held their last two opponents under 100 rushing yards, but the Ravens will try to force feed Henry at points.
I’d actually look into Lamar Jackson’s rushing yard prop of 53.5 more than Henry’s 86.5. Tampa Bay is strong on the interior and has given up 187 rushing yards and four touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Jackson’s TD prop is +135.
Baltimore’s biggest defensive weakness is against tight ends. The Ravens allowed 37 catches on 48 targets for 436 yards to opposing tight ends. Only three other teams have allowed 400+ yards to tight ends. Cade Otton is Tampa Bay’s clear No. 3 target and his props sit at over/under 3.5 receptions and over/under 38.5 receiving yards.
DraftKings is offering an SGP or SGPx parlay boost for both MNF games, while FanDuel has a 30% profit boost for same game parlays.
I would look into combining Jackson’s rushing yards and Otton’s receiving yards with alternate lines for the top pass-catchers on each team, Zay Flowers and Chris Godwin. Godwin and Flowers 50+ receiving yards, Jackson 50+ rushing yards and Otton 25+ receiving yards pays out at +365 before any boost at FD and +300 at DK. And speaking of DK, make sure to check out their gaming offerings with the DraftKings casino promo code.
Chargers (-1) at Cardinals (Over/Under 44)
If this game took place on Sunday, Chris Myers and Mark Sanchez would be calling it and we’d get about one update per quarter on RedZone.
Chargers/Cardinals screams more like a TNF matchup than MNF, but as I said earlier, we cherish every game because we only get 272 of these in the regular season every year.
Arizona is 2-4 ATS with a 3-2-1 record to the over, but only one of its last four games went over the total. The Chargers are 3-0 ATS as a favorite and 0-2 ATS as a dog. They are one of the best teams to the under at 4-1.
The stat that immediately stands out is Arizona’s porous rushing defense that allowed more than 150 yards to each of its last four opponents.
The over on J.K. Dobbins’ rushing-yard prop of 79,5 yards will be one of the most popular picks on Monday’s slate. Dobbins is the clear No. 1 with Gus Edwards out injured. Keep an eye out, though, on Kimani Vidal to score a touchdown for the Chargers. The rookie backup running back had six touches last week and scored on a pass play.
The Chargers have allowed over 200 passing yards in four of their five games, but they are the only NFL team that has allowed less than 50 receptions to opposing wide receivers. They have allowed 32 catches to tight ends and 30 catches to running backs, which puts Trey McBride, James Conner and Emari DeMercado into play for the Cardinals. DeMercado is the Cardinals’ pass-down back and is worth a look (if the props get posted) because of the long-yardage situations Arizona could be in.
I wouldn’t get super crazy with SGPs for this game, but you can get Dobbins 70+ rushing yards and Kyler Murray 25+ rushing yards at plus-money at any book. That may be the safe way to go.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.