Eagles

Computers Say the Eagles’ 4th and 8 Decision was the Best Call of the Week

By Kevin Kinkead

Published: Sep 23rd, 2019 · 11:53 AM EDT

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I’m not a huge analytics guy, but you might be.

Yesterday the Eagles were facing a 4th and 8 on their own 22-yard line with 2:25 remaining on the clock. They had all three of their timeouts and a looming two-minute warning.

Doug Pederson decided to go for it, and even though the Eagles didn’t convert, they ended up blocking a Detroit field goal after a four-play drive that took only 39 seconds off the clock.

Edj Sports, which runs Football Outsiders and crunches numbers and on plays like this one, said it was the best decision of the entire week:

It’s actually our #1 BEST call of the week. Despite not converting it was the right call by 12.5% win probability. pic.twitter.com/DY2ys8pXRQ

— EdjSports (@edjsports) September 23, 2019

GWC stands for “Game Winning Chance,” which is exactly what you think it is. Doug’s decision there came with a 12.5% GWC by their metrics, beating out Pete Carroll’s choice to attempt a 4th and 1 while trailing 13-7 in the fourth quarter.

As a refresher, here’s the play in question, the Carson Wentz scramble after a three-man rush flushed him from the pocket:

Pretty ugly. The Lions ended up with the ball at the Philadelphia 28-yard line, in field goal position. The Eagles held and blocked the kick, but would have only been down six points with about 1:40 on the clock if Matt Prater had converted.

On the other hand, if the Eagles punted there, from their 22, and Cam Johnston hit at his 48 yard average, Detroit would have started with the ball on their 30 yard line. If they got a stop and forced a punt, it still would have been a three-point game.

So there you have it. The computers liked the call. Maybe you did or maybe you didn’t.

Edit –

Some more input from Edj:

Their win probability when the Lions took over was 12.1%. With a punt to the Lions 30, as mentioned in the article, the Eagles win probability would have been 13.6%.

— EdjSports (@edjsports) September 23, 2019